GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH,TECHNOLOGY, AND MALTHUSIAN CONSTRAINTS: A QUANTITATIVE GROWTH THEORETIC PERSPECTIVE

We structurally estimate a two‐sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long‐run evolution of global population, technological progress, and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth, and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onward show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100, global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.     

Farmers at the heart of the ‘human capital revolution’? Decomposing the numeracy increase in early modern Europe†

Did the early development of skills and numerical abilities occur primarily in urban centres and among the elite groups of society? This study assesses the human capital of different occupational groups in the early modern period and partially confirms this finding: skilled and professional groups had higher levels of numeracy and literacy than persons in unskilled occupations. However, there was another large group that developed substantial human capital and represented around one‐third of the total population: farmers. By analysing numeracy and literacy evidence from six countries in Europe and Latin America, we argue that farmers contributed significantly to the formation of human capital and, consequently, to modern economic growth.     

Innovationskraft — Invented Here

Erst die Verbindung von technologischen Kompetenzen mit intimer Marktkenntnis und einer lebendigen, auf st?ndige Erneuerung ausgerichteten Unternehmenskultur schafft das Fundament für nachhaltige Innovationskraft. Der Multitechnologiekonzern 3M erreicht mit dieser Verbindung seit über 100 Jahren innovative Spitzenleistung. Der Beitrag beschreibt die Innovationsmechanik, die die Grundlage für das nachhaltige Wachstum des Unternehmens darstellt.     

A SYMMETRIC INPUT–OUTPUT TABLE FOR EU27: LATEST PROGRESS

The European Commission is currently establishing an Environmentally Extended Input–Output (EE-IO) Database for the EU27 developed by the Joint Research Centre at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS). This project attempts to generate an analytical dataset comprising all EU countries and yearly time series for the period 1995–2005. Since, for the time being, IO and environmental accounts data are only available with significant gaps part of the dataset will require estimates based on best available proxy data and reasonable assumptions. This paper is focused on the IO database shaped around Eurostat supply and use tables and symmetric IO tables consistent with the NACE classification. The paper describes the procedure by which the latest preliminary results have been obtained for an aggregate EU27 symmetric input–output table for the year 2000.     

The concept of Ro in epidemic theory

In epidemiology R₀ denotes the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease that one case would generate in a completely susceptible population. This concept is among the foremost and most valuable ideas that mathematical thinking has brought to epidemic theory. In this contribution, we first review the historical development of Ro, from demography to epidemiology, proceed to give an exposition of the recently formalised theory to define and calculate R₀ for structured populations, return to the interaction of demography and epidemiology for an example of the use of the concept to study vaccination campaigns and finally we deal with statistical aspects of estimating R₀ . In the appendix we discuss some issues of current attention.     

US dollar and D-Mark as reserve assets

Zusammenfassung US-Dollar und D-Mark als Reservew?hrung. — Der Autor verwendet ein Modell der Diversifizierung von W?hrungsreserven, das auf der Vorstellung beruht, da\ die Diversifizierung weg vom Dollar haupts?chlich durch den Wegfall der Konvertibilit?tsbeschr?nkung für offizielle Dollarreserven verursacht worden sei. Aus der Untersuchung geht hervor, da\ diese Beschr?nkung wiederhergestellt wurde, nachdem sich die D-Mark zu einer zweiten Reservew?hrung entwickelt hatte, wobei die dominierende Rolle des Dollars auf der Gr?\e der amerikanischen Wirtschaft und ihres Kapitalmarkts beruht, w?hrend die D-Mark ihre zunehmende Bedeutung ihrem Ruf als berechenbare W?hrung mit niedriger Inflationsrate verdankt. Demnach kann die Diversifizierung von W?hrungsreserven als ein stabilisierendes Element im internationalen W?hrungssystem angesehen werden.

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Résumé US dollar et DM comme réserves monétaires. — Cette étude présente un modèle concernant la diversification des réserves basé sur l’opinion que la diversification des réserves de dollar était principalement causée par l’abolition de la contrainte de convertibilité aux réserves officielles de dollar. L’analyse propose que cette contrainte a été réétablie par l’évolution de la DM comme une deuxième réserve monétaire principale — en attribuant le róle dominant du dollar à l’importance de l’économie américaine et de son marché des capitaux et le róle augmentant de la DM à son réputation comme une monnaie prédisable d’une inflation basse. C’est pourquoi on peut regarder la diversification des réserves comme un élément qui stabilise le système monétaire international.

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Resumen El dólar EE.UU. y el marco alemán como activos de réserva. — En este trabajo se presenta un modelo de diversificatión de reservas basado en la opinion que la diversificatión hacia activos en monedas alternativas al dólar fué causada por la abolición de la restriction sobre la convertibilidad de reservas oficiales en dólares. El análisis sugiere que esta restrictión fué reestablecida a raiz de la evolución del marco alemán hasta llegar a ser la segunda moneda de reserva en el mundo, atribuyéndole el papel dominante del dólar al tama?o de la economia de los EE.UU. y a su mercado de capitales, y el creciente papel del marco alemán a su reputación como moneda predecible y de baja inflación. La diversificación de réservas puede por ello ser considerada como un elemento estabilizador en el sistema monetario international.

     

Brain drain in the age of mass migration: Does relative inequality explain migrant selectivity?

Brain drain is a core economic policy problem for many developing countries today. Does relative inequality in source and destination countries influence the brain-drain phenomenon? We explore human capital selectivity during the period 1820–1909.We apply age heaping techniques to measure human capital selectivity of international migrants. In a sample of 52 source and five destination countries we find selective migration determined by relative anthropometric inequality in source and destination countries. Other inequality measures confirm this. The results remain robust in OLS and Arellano–Bond approaches. We confirm the Roy–Borjas model of migrant self-selection. Moreover, we find that countries like Germany and UK experienced a small positive effect, because the less educated emigrated in larger numbers.     

慕尼黑大学管理学院 让并购创造价值

公司并购之后，经理不应该只是依照传统的经验——通过削减成本来增加利润，首先应该做的是巩固营销、保持销售收入增长。这是因为，销售收入的增长对于利润增长至关重要，而后者则是在长期内保证股东收益的最可靠的引擎。