Increasing the credibility of the twin birth instrument

Twin births are an important instrument for the endogenous fertility decision. However, twin births are not exogenous either as dizygotic twinning is correlated with maternal characteristics. Following the medical literature, we assume that monozygotic twins are exogenous, and construct a new instrument, which corrects for the selection although monozygotic twinning is usually unobserved in survey and administrative datasets. Using administrative data from Sweden, we show that the usual twin instrument is related to observed and unobserved determinants of economic outcomes, while our new instrument is not. In our applications we find that the classical twin instrument underestimates the negative effect of fertility on labor income. This finding is in line with the observation that high earners are more likely to delay childbearing and hence have a higher risk to get dizygotic twins.     

Is it the Law or the Lawyers? Investment Covenants around the World*

This paper introduces a new dataset from 50 private investment funds from 17 countries around the world. We analyse the frequency of use of investment covenants imposed by institutional investors governing the activities of private investment fund managers in areas pertaining to investment decisions, investment powers, types of investments, fund operations and limitations on liability. While the data indicate a role for country legality in affecting the frequency of use of fund covenants, the data further indicate that the presence of legally trained managers has a more pronounced role in affecting the use of covenants. As private equity and venture capital investment increases across Europe and elsewhere, our results indicate that legal practice factors will matter more than the legal setting for the establishment of covenants governing new funds.     

On the Unequal Inequality of Poor Communities

Communities differ in important ways in their needs, capacities,and circumstances. Because central governments are not ableto discern these differences fully, they seek to achieve theirpolicy objectives by relying on decentralized mechanisms thatuse local information. Household and individual characteristicswithin communities can also vary substantially. A growing bodyof theoretical literature suggests that inequality within communitiescan influence policy outcomes in ways that are either harmfulor helpful, depending on the circumstances. Until recently,empirical investigations into the impact of inequality havebeen held back by a lack of systematic evidence on community-levelinequality. This study uses household survey and populationcensus data to estimate per capita consumption inequality withincommunities in three developing economies. It finds that communitiesvary markedly in their degree of inequality. It also shows thatthere should be no presumption that inequality is less severein poor communities. The kind of community-level inequalityestimates generated here can be used in designing and evaluatingdecentralized antipoverty programs.     

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: a (new) policy framework for the agricultural sector

In the southern African Region (SAR) large populations, mainly concentrated in rural areas, face food insecurity and poverty. Food insecurity is intensified by adverse weather conditions and droughts which impact negatively on farm level food production throughout the region. Agriculture constitutes an important economic sector in the majority of countries in the region. This is measured as share of agricultural value added to the GDP and as agriculture's share in employment. Based on these facts alone, it must be obvious that sustained agricultural performance will play a significant role in the improvement of food security and livelihoods in the region. However, food security is not only attained in rural areas and by the consumption of home produced food stuffs. Urbanisation is expected to increase dramatically over the next few decades and feeding the urban masses, at affordable prices, must be considered to be a high future priority for governments in the region. Food security must not be viewed as an agricultural issue per se. The drive to food self sufficiency through domestic agriculture production in many countries in the region did not enable these countries to feed their own population. Food security should rather be defined as the acquirement of sufficient and nutritious quantities of food (Sen, 1981, Poverty and Famines: An essay on Entitlement and Deprivation). An approach, whereby attention is given to the macro level availability of food, access to income streams as well as improved production capacity to acquire food at a household level and the utilisation of nutritious food, should therefore be guiding food security policies (SADC: FSTAU, 1997, A Strategic Framework for Food Security in the Region). This broader view emphasises household level poverty reduction, economic development and growth as important components of a food security strategy (World Food Summit, Rome, 1996). An important issue which therefore needs to be explored is whether agriculture does have the potential to contribute to economic processes, which will support broad based development and food security. This paper is intended to argue the importance of agricultural development for food security in the region and to develop a diverse policy framework to strengthen this new, more comprehensive role of agriculture in the region.     

Liberalisation,competition and ownership in the presence of vertical relations

This contribution analyses a market with an upstream bottleneck monopoly and a downstream activity that may either be vertically integrated or separated. Separation always reduces the consumer surplus, and the total surplus unless there are large cost reductions. Downstream competition from a public or private network monopoly would crowd out other firms, also when public ownership is associated with more modest objectives than welfare-maximisation. A market is therefore less likely to remain a mixed oligopoly than without vertical relations. However, private firms would survive in a moderately welfare-improving mixed oligopoly with cross-subsidisation and access charges equal to marginal costs.

Exchange risk and universal returns: A test of international arbitrage pricing theory

According to the international arbitrage pricing theory (IAPT) posited by Solnik (1983), currency movements affect assets' factor loadings and associated risk premiums. Based on a novel universal return decomposition, we propose an empirical model to test this proposition and perform tests using U.S. stock returns in the period 1975–2008. Our results confirm that currency movements significantly affect the market betas of a large proportion of stocks. Further cross-sectional tests indicate that currency movements affecting the market factor are significantly priced in stock returns. Based on these and other findings, we conclude that Solnik's IAPT is supported. An important implication of our findings is that exchange rate risk can broadly affect stock returns through both factor loading and residual factor channels.     

Heterogeneous Firms,Globalisation and the Distance Puzzle

Despite the strong pace of globalisation, the distance effect on trade is persistent or even growing over time (Disdier and Head, 2008). To solve this distance puzzle, we use the recently developed gravity equation estimator from Helpman et al. (2008) (HMR henceforth). Using three different data sets, we find that the distance coefficient increases over time when ordinary least squares (OLS) is used, while the non‐linear estimation of HMR leads to a decline in the distance coefficient over time. The distance puzzle, thus, arises from a growing bias of OLS estimates. The latter is explained by an increase in the importance of the bias from omitting the number of heterogeneous exporting firms relative to the bias from omitting zero trade flows. Furthermore, we show that including zero trade flows cannot solve the distance puzzle when using HMR. The HMR estimates are strongly correlated with the time pattern in freight costs reported by Hummels (2007).     

How beer created Belgium (and the Netherlands): the contribution of beer taxes to war finance during the Dutch Revolt

ABSTRACT

The present-day border between Belgium and the Netherlands can be traced back to the separation of the Low Countries after the Dutch Revolt (1566–1648) against Spanish rule. The capacity to finance the escalating cost of war determined the outcome of this conflict. As Spain struggled to provide regular pay to its troops, its war efforts were often plagued by mutiny. In contrast, the Dutch Republic managed to raise large sums for its war budgets. As we show in this article, excise taxes on beer consumption were one of the largest income sources in Holland, the leading province of the Dutch Republic. Over the course of the Revolt, Dutch beer taxes brought in the equivalent of 29% of Spanish tax revenues on silver from America. Beer taxes thus played a crucial role in financing the Dutch Revolt which led to the separation of the Low Countries and, eventually, the creation of Belgium.