Explaining Disagreement on Interest Rates in a Taylor‐Rule Setting

Most studies on disagreement focus on one specific variable, thereby neglecting the fact that disagreement can be co‐moving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper, we explore to what extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the theoretical concept of the Taylor rule. Using survey microdata for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. We further show that disagreement is significantly influenced by central bank transparency, as well as news on money and credit conditions.     

Improved output gaps with financial cycle information? An application to G7 countries’ new Keynesian Phillips curves

In search for more robust cyclical imbalance indicators, recent research has highlighted the interactions between business and financial cycles. Output gap formulations increasingly take imbalances of the financial cycle into account, postulating finance-neutral output gaps (FNGAPs). To test their increased explanatory power in econometric models, we compare FNGAPs to univariate output gaps in their ability to explain inflation dynamics in hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curves. Results indicate FNGAPs to exercise (dis)inflationary pressure, but not to outperform traditional output gaps. Nonetheless, they have become increasingly significant in the course of the 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis.     

Do birth order and family size matter for intergenerational income mobility? Evidence from Sweden

Previous studies of intergenerational income mobility have not considered potential birth-order or family-size effects in the estimated income elasticity. This article uses a large sample of individuals born between 1962 and 1964; income elasticities with respect to parents’ incomes are estimated for individuals with different birth-order positions and family sizes. Results based on labour income and total income for sons and daughters are reported separately. The elasticity tends to decrease with family size as well as with birth order for a given family size, especially in the labour-income analysis of fathers and sons.     

Investment Choice with Polluted Capital

This paper develops a two-sector overlapping generations model in which one sector produces an externality on the environmental quality and the other has no effect. We assume that environmental quality degradation results from production activity of one sector. Then, we characterise the dynamical system globally and establish sufficient conditions for the global uniqueness of a perfect-foresight equilibrium path in the case of a Cobb-Douglas production function and a CES utility function. We show that the existence and the stability of the steady state depend on substitution and income effect and on the degree of pollution.     

Social security and cross-country differences in hours: A general equilibrium analysis

I develop a general equilibrium life cycle model with an intensive and extensive margin of labor supply and endogenous human capital accumulation. I use the model to assess the effects of changes to various features of social security on labor supply outcomes. Of particular interest are changes to the scale of the program and to the relevant eligibility rules. I find that the cross-country differences in social security programs account for at least 79% of the differences in employment rates of people aged 55–64 and 17–31% of the differences in aggregate hours worked between the US and continental Europe.     

The effectiveness of personalized marketing in online banking: A comparison between search and experience offerings

This study reports the results of personalized online promotions in a context where personalization has not been researched before – in online banking. Genuine online bank customers were shown personalized banner advertisements when they logged in to their online bank account. Three financial offerings consisting of different search and experience attributes were promoted to three groups of customers. We examined the attention, elaboration and choice measures, and compared the effectiveness of personalized banners to default banners, and the online promotions to direct-mail promotions. Despite the goal-directed routines that reflect the dominant customer behaviour in online banking, personalized banners attracted more attention than default banners. Furthermore, messages that promote fairly simple search-type offerings that are easy to apply and are linked to the context in which the promotion occurs are more effective than messages that do not fulfil these criteria. The results offer implications both for research and practice.