A Conversation With Paul Embrechts

Paul Embrechts was born in Schoten, Belgium, on 3 February 1953. He holds a Licentiaat in Mathematics from Universiteit Antwerpen (1975) and a DSc from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (1979), where he was also a Research Assistant from 1975 to 1983. He then held a lectureship in Statistics at Imperial College, London (1983–1985) and was a Docent at Limburgs Universitair Centrum, Belgium (1985–1989) before joining ETH Zürich as a Full Professor of Mathematics in 1989, where he remained until his retirement as an Emeritus in 2018. A renowned specialist of extreme-value theory and quantitative risk management, he authored or coauthored nearly 200 scientific papers and five books, including the highly influential ‘Modelling of Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance’ (Springer, 1997) and ‘Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools’ (Princeton University Press, 2005, 2015). He served in numerous editorial capacities, notably as Editor-in-Chief of the ASTIN Bulletin (1996–2005). Praised for his natural leadership and exceptional communication skills, he helped to bridge the gap between academia and industry through the foundation of RiskLab Switzerland and his sustained leadership for nearly 20 years. He gave numerous prestigious invited and keynote lectures worldwide and served as a member of the board of, or consultant for, various banks, insurance companies and international regulatory authorities. His work was recognised through several visiting positions, including at the Oxford-Man Institute, and many awards. He is, inter alia, an Elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1995) and the American Statistical Association (2014), an Honorary Fellow of the Institute and the Faculty of Actuaries (2000), Honorary Member of the Belgian (2010) and French (2015) Institute of Actuaries and was granted four honorary degrees (University of Waterloo, 2007; Heriot-Watt University, 2011; Université catholique de Louvain, 2012; City, University of London, 2017). The following conversation took place in Paul's office at ETH Zürich, 17–18 December 2018.     

Stuck at a workplace: What’s work control,demands and learning got to do with it? A longitudinal multilevel study on Swedish permanent employees in situations of ‘workplace locked-in’

Abstract

Whilst health consequences of being locked-in at the workplace have been documented in several research studies, it is largely unknown how work characteristics and their changes over time relate to risks for becoming locked-in at a certain workplace. Accordingly, this paper studied how perceived control, learning opportunities and quantitative demands at work associate with workplace-locked-in (WPLI). The study included permanent employees who participated in the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH) study in wave 3 through 5 (n = 2918 individuals; n = 7460 observations). Results from multi-level analysis show that there was significant individual variation in WPLI changes over time, even though on average, WPLI decreased slightly. Differences in work characteristics between individuals (L2) and across time (L1) associated significantly with WPLI: higher levels of job control and learning opportunities related to lower odds ratios for WPLI, whereas higher quantitative job demands associated with higher odds ratios of WPLI. Moreover, differences in quantitative job demands, number of job changes and educational achievements explained the individual variations of WPLI developments over time. The result shows that WPLI can – to some extent – be prevented or reduced through good work design, and implications for HR managers and organizations are discussed.     

The benefits of global teams for international organizations: HR implications

Abstract

In this special issue we aim to advance the theoretical, conceptual and empirical knowledge about the relationship between global teams and human resource management in international organizations. We argue that although the prevalence of global teams in international organizations is rapidly rising, simultaneously affecting the management of firms on global, regional and local levels, the response of firms and scholars alike to such changes has been slower, especially in the area of IHRM. The HR function in organizations could play a vital role in understanding, managing and leveraging the benefits of global teams to ensure that they contribute positively to the performance of firms, organizational units, and people. We demonstrate that there is still a disconnect in this respect and we highlight several areas in which the increasing use of global teams may challenge our conventional understanding of IHRM issues, and at the same time offer solutions for improvement in international organizations. The selected articles in this special issue provide both theoretical and practitioner implications by highlighting the need to explore the relationship between global teams and IHRM more generally and fully, as well as the need for HR practitioners and IHRM scholars to focus more on the ‘human’ and less on the ‘resources’ aspect. We trust that readers of this issue will agree that the articles all offer novel insights into key issues that open new avenues for further research in this nascent yet promising area.     

Perceived inflation under loss aversion

Building on prospect theory, we apply the concept of loss aversion to the formation of inflation perceptions and test empirically for nonlinearities in the inflation-perceptions relation for a panel of 10 Euro area countries. Specifically, under the assumption of loss aversion, inflation changes above a certain reference rate will be perceived more strongly. Rejecting rationality of inflation perceptions in general under symmetric loss and in a majority of cases under flexible loss functions, panel smooth transition models give evidence of nonlinearities in the inflation-perceptions relation regarding both actual inflation and time. This result is confirmed by dynamic fixed effects estimates, where the slope of the estimated value function is significantly steeper in the loss region and the implied average reference inflation rate is found close to 2%.     

Intensive Coaching of New Immigrants: An Evaluation Based on Random Program Assignment*

The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether intensive counseling and coaching by Public Employment Service (PES) caseworkers improves the employment opportunities of new immigrants in Sweden. This is tested within the framework of introduction programs for new immigrants. A trial introduction program was implemented from October 2006 to June 2008. Within participating municipalities, new immigrants were randomly assigned into treatment (intensive coaching) or control (regular introduction programs). The results indicate that there are significant treatment effects on employment probabilities as well as on participation in intermediate PES training programs.     

I thought it was over,but now it is back: customer reactions to <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex post</Emphasis> time extensions of sales promotions

In many industries, it is common practice to extend sales promotions ex post. That is, firms belatedly extend the initial deadline of a promotion shortly before or directly after the previously announced deadline, with the expectation of increased sales. Four experimental studies indicate both positive and negative effects of these ex post extensions. First, customers perceive an ex post extended promotional offer as less attractive, such that their repurchase intentions diminish. This negative effect arises consistently across different boundary conditions, such as different customer and product types. Second, the positive effect of ex post extensions stems from the possibility that the consumer can still use the promotional offer, so it emerges only for potential customers and existing customers of frequently bought products. Companies can mitigate the dark side of ex post extensions proactively, by designing the extensions to last for only a short time or offering an explanation for the extension that highlights the popularity of the initial promotion.     

New Keynesian dynamics in a low interest rate environment

Recent research has found that the dynamic properties of the New Keynesian model are unorthodox when the nominal interest rate is zero. Improvements in technology and reductions in the labor tax rate lower economic activity and the size of the government purchase output multiplier is very large. This paper provides evidence that these results are not empirically relevant. We show that a prototypical New Keynesian model fit to Japanese data exhibits orthodox dynamics during Japan's episode with zero interest rates. We then demonstrate that this specification is more consistent with outcomes in Japan than alternative specifications that have unorthodox properties.