ON ESTIMATING STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY: AN EXPLORATORY APPROACH

Traditional methods of estimating market volatility use daily return observations from a stock index to calculate monthly variance. We break with tradition and estimate stock market volatility using the daily, cross-sectional standard deviation of returns for all firms trading on the New York Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange. We find a significantly positive relation between risk and return. Market volatility is estimated to be about half the volatility level previously reported. The intraday, cross-sectional market volatility measure provides findings consistent with risk-return theory.     

Futures hedging using dynamic models of the variance/covariance structure

Dynamic futures‐hedging ratios are estimated across seven markets using generalized models of the variance/covariance structure. The hedging performances of the resultant dynamic strategies are then compared with static and naïve strategies, both in‐ and out‐of‐sample. Bayesian‐adjusted hedge ratios also are employed as error purgers. The empirical results indicate that the generalized dynamic models are well specified and that their use in determining optimal hedge ratios can lead to improvements in hedging performance as measured by the volatilities of the returns on the optimally hedged position. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:241–260, 2003     

Option volume and volatility response to scheduled economic news releases

In this article, we examine the impact of 21 different types of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on S&P 100 stock‐index option volume and implied volatility. We find that there is a 2‐h delay after the announcement before volume increases. However, there is an immediate increase in volatility, which slowly dissipates over several hours. Further analysis shows that most of the high volume and volatility after announcements come from the announcements that are considered bad news. That is, bad news creates high volatility and high volume, whereas good news elicits lower volume and is not associated with higher volatility. These results are not consistent with the predictions of any one model. We also find that the announcements that cause the largest reaction in the equity option market are Consumer Credit, Consumer Spending, Factory Inventories, NAPM, and Non‐Farm Payrolls. Six other announcements elicit a mild response. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:315–345, 2003     

PLANNING MULTIPLE LOCATION INVENTORIES

Supplying customer demand from comparable alternate inventory locations when an item is out of stock at its primary stocking point creates a virtual inventory for that item. The expectation is that if more inventories can be drawn upon, the inventory for an item would be lower, the fill rate would be higher, or both. While generally true that safety stocks will be lower, regular stocks, on the other hand, may rise with such cross filling of demand. In this study, a methodology is developed that balances the cross filling effects on both regular and safety stocks for determining whether an inventoried item should be cross‐filled. An example and guidelines are given to show how the methodology can be simplified and applied in practice.     

THE EFFECT OF INVESTMENT IN INTERORGANIZATIONAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN A RETAIL SUPPLY CHAIN

The primary purpose of this research was to investigate the effect of investment in information technology in a supply chain. The results of that investigation are presented by focusing on an empirically tested supply chain relationship model containing both behavioral and operational constructs. The four behavioral constructs represented in the model are relationship trust, relationship commitment, relationship dependence, and long‐term relationship orientation. The four operational constructs represented in the model are retailer investment in interorganizational information technology, perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology, logistics efficiency, and logistics effectiveness. Among other findings, the results of the investigation found that perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology has a significant and positive effect on logistics efficiency.     

RELATIONSHIP MAGNITUDE AND ITS ROLE IN INTERORGANIZATIONAL RELATIONSHIP STRUCTURE

Close relationships between and among supply chain members are becoming more prevalent. However, there is lack of agreement in the literature and in practice concerning the characteristics of different interorganizational relationships. The resultant confusion is an obstacle to the progression of research and could cause problems among firms in a supply chain. Based on previous research and an exploratory study conducted with company executives responsible for supply chain management activities, this article seeks to introduce the concept of relationship magnitude (i.e., the extent or degree of closeness or strength of the relationship) and differentiate it from relationship type (i.e., classes of relationships that share common traits). Implications for managers and opportunities for future research are provided.     

Voting Rights and Market Reaction to Dual Class Common Stock Issues

This paper examines the return of the original class of common stock around the announcement of the creation of a second class of stock. As in previous studies, this one finds a generally ambiguous market reaction on the first public announcement. However, this paper offers new evidence that both the voting rights and the compensation for loss of voting rights are important determinants of the market's reaction. Specifically, it demonstrates that a second class stock issue that contains no compensation for the lost voting rights results in negative returns. When the original stockholders are compensated for lost voting rights, they experience positive abnormal returns.     

Orange County Bankruptcy: Financial Contagion in the Municipal Bond and Bank Equity Markets

We examine the spillover wealth effects of the Orange County, California bankruptcy announcement in December 1994 on municipal bonds, municipal bond funds, and bank stocks. This bankruptcy is prominent because of unprecedented losses and because it was caused by a highly leveraged derivatives strategy rather than a shortage of tax revenues and excess spending. We find contagion in the bond market with significantly negative abnormal returns for municipal bond funds without direct exposure to Orange County and for non‐Orange County municipal bonds. In addition, our findings suggest the contagion spills over to the common stocks of investment and commercial banks that deal in or use derivatives; however, the equities of banks unexposed to derivatives are not affected.