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951.
952.
Bonne J. H. Zijlstra Marijtje A. J. van Duijn Tom A. B. Snijders 《Statistica Neerlandica》2005,59(1):107-118
With the development of an MCMC algorithm, Bayesian model selection for the p 2 model for directed graphs has become possible. This paper presents an empirical exploration in using approximate Bayes factors for model selection. For a social network of Dutch secondary school pupils from different ethnic backgrounds it is investigated whether pupils report that they receive more emotional support from within their own ethnic group. Approximated Bayes factors seem to work, but considerable margins of error have to be reckoned with. 相似文献
953.
The paper considers the estimation of the coefficients of a single equation in the presence of dummy intruments. We derive pseudo ML and GMM estimators based on moment restrictions induced either by the structural form or by the reduced form of the model. The performance of the estimators is evaluated for the non-Gaussian case. We allow for heteroscedasticity. The asymptotic distributions are based on parameter sequences where the number of instruments increases at the same rate as the sample size. Relaxing the usual Gaussian assumption is shown to affect the normal asymptotic distributions. As a result also recently suggested new specification tests for the validity of instruments depend on Gaussianity. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the asymptotic approach. 相似文献
954.
955.
Raphael A. Auer 《Journal of Economic Growth》2013,18(2):179-215
While the direct impact of geographic endowments on prosperity is present in all countries, in former colonies, geography has also affected colonization policies and, therefore, institutional outcomes. Using non-colonized countries as a control group, I re-examine the theories put forward by La Porta et al. (J Law Econ Org 15(1):222–279, 1999 and Acemoglu et al. (Am Econ Rev 91(5), 1369–1401, 2001. I find strong support for both theories, but also evidence that the authors’ estimates of the impact of colonization on institutions and growth are biased, since they confound the effect of the historical determinants of institutions with the direct impact of geographic endowments on development. In a baseline estimation, I find that the approach of Acemoglu et al. (2001) overestimates the importance of institutions for economic growth by 28 %, as a country’s natural disease environment affected settler mortality during colonization and also has a direct impact on prosperity. The approach of La Porta et al. (1999) underestimates the importance of colonization-imposed legal origin for institutional development by 63 %, as Britain tended to colonize countries that are remote from Europe and thus suffer from low access to international markets. 相似文献
956.
The United States and Brazil are key players in the international market for orange juice, mainly frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ). The U.S. orange juice industry benefits from one of the highest levels of import protection in U.S. agriculture. Additional trade protection was recently added with a U.S. industry victory in an antidumping trade suit against Brazil. We study the impact of FCOJ imports from Brazil on U.S. prices using time series econometric models and find only a weak FCOJ domestic price response to imports from Brazil, because extremely large U.S. inventories mute the price impact of any fluctuation in imports. Our findings imply that the antidumping tariffs were unjustified based on a material injury argument. 相似文献
957.
A simple open-economy AK model with collateral constraints accounts for growth breaks and growth-reversal episodes, during which countries face abrupt
changes in their growth rate that may lead to either growth miracles or growth disasters. Absent commitment to investment
by the borrowing country, imperfect contract enforcement leads to an informational lag such that the debt contracted upon
today depends upon the past stock of capital. The no-commitment delay originates a history effect by which the richer a country has been in the past, the more it can borrow today. For (arbitrarily) small delays,
the history effect offsets the growth benefits from international borrowing and dampens growth, and it leads to both leapfrogging
in long-run levels and growth breaks. When large enough, the history effect originates growth reversals and we connect the
latter to leapfrogging. Finally, we argue that the model accords with the reported evidence on changes in the growth rate
at break dates. We also provide examples showing that leapfrogging and growth reversals may coexist, so that currently poor
but fast-growing countries experiencing sharp growth reversals may end up, in the long-run, significantly richer than currently
rich but declining countries. 相似文献
958.
A significant reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions requires international cooperation in emission abatement as well
as individual countries’ investment in the adoption of abatement technology. The existing literature on climate policy pays
insufficient attention to small countries, which account for a substantial proportion of global emission. In this study, we
investigate how climate policy and learning about climate damage affect investment in abatement technology in small countries.
We consider three alternative climate policy instruments: emission standards, harmonized taxes and auctioned permits. We say
that learning is feasible if an international environmental agreement (IEA) is formed after the resolution of uncertainty
about climate damage. We find that, either with learning and quadratic abatement costs or without learning, harmonized taxes
outperform emission standards and auctioned permits in terms of investment efficiency. Without learning, a large cost of nonparticipation
(that a country incurs) in the IEA can be beneficial to the country. Whether learning improves investment efficiency depends
on the size of this nonparticipation cost. 相似文献
959.
Valentina Bosetti Carlo Carraro Massimo Tavoni 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2012,51(3):353-369
This paper analyzes the economic and investment implications of a series of climate mitigation scenarios, characterized by different levels of ambition for long-term stabilization goals and transitional pathways. Results indicate that although milder climate objectives can be achieved at moderate costs, stringent stabilization paths, compatible with the 2°C target, might require significant economic resources. Innovation and technology are shown to be able to mitigate, but not structurally alter, this trade-off. Technologies that allow capturing CO2 from the atmosphere are shown to be important for expanding the feasibility space of stringent climate policies, though only if deployed at a scale which would represent a tremendous challenge. In general, the analysis indicates that the timing of mitigation is an important factor of cost containment, with early action being desirable. It also elaborates on the set of mitigation strategies and policies that would be required to achieve climate protection at maximum efficiency. 相似文献
960.
Hung-Ju Chen 《Journal of Economics》2012,105(3):225-246
This study examines the effects of monetary policy in a two-sector cash-in-advance economy of human capital accumulation.
Agents concern about their social status represented by the relative physical capital and relative human capital. We find
that if the desire for social status depends only on relative physical capital, money is superneutral in the growth-rate sense.
However, if the desire for social status depends on relative human capital, the money growth rate will have a positive effect
on the long-run economic growth rate. Furthermore, an increase in the desire to pursue human capital will raise the long-run
growth rate, but an increase in the desire to pursue physical capital will lower it. 相似文献