Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications

This article presents a general framework for identifying andmodeling the joint-tail distribution based on multivariate extremevalue theories. We argue that the multivariate approach is themost efficient and effective way to study extreme events suchas systemic risk and crisis. We show, using returns on fivemajor stock indices, that the use of traditional dependencemeasures could lead to inaccurate portfolio risk assessment.We explain how the framework proposed here could be exploitedin a number of finance applications such as portfolio selection,risk management, Sharpe ratio targeting, hedging, option valuation,and credit risk analysis.     

Bank Loan Availability and Trade Credit Demand

This paper investigates the effects of bank loan availability on the trade credit and credit card demand of small firms, using firm‐level data from the 1995 Credit, Banks, and Small Business Survey, conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. We find that firms increase their demand for trade credit and credit card debt when facing credit constraints imposed by banks. These results provide evidence of a pecking order of debt financing, where firms increase their reliance on potentially expensive sources of funds when bank loans are not available.     

Examination of Conditional Asset Pricing in UK Stock Returns

I examine the empirical performance of various specifications of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in UK stock returns, using the stochastic discount framework. When the proxy for the market portfolio includes a proxy for labor income growth in addition to the stock market index, the performance of the CAPM improves. The improvement in performance shows in the magnitude and significance of the pricing errors and in the reduced impact of asset characteristics and other factors in the pricing of assets. There is further improvement when I use conditional versions of the models.     

Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data

We analyze the association between order flow and exchange rates using a new dataset representing a majority of global interdealer transactions in the two most-traded currency pairs at the one minute frequency over a six-year time period. This long span of high-frequency data allows us to gain new insights about the joint behavior of these series. We first confirm the presence of a substantial association between interdealer order flow and exchange rate returns at horizons ranging from 1 min to two weeks, but find that the association is substantially weaker at longer horizons. We study the time-variation of the association between exchange rate returns and order flow both intradaily and over the long term, and show that the relationship appears to be stronger when market liquidity is lower. Overall, our study supports the view that liquidity effects play an important role in the relationship between order flow and exchange rate changes. This by no means rules out a role for order flow as a channel by which fundamental information is transmitted to the market, as we show that our findings are quite consistent with a recent model by Bacchetta and Van Wincoop (2006: Can information heterogeneity explain the exchange rate determination puzzle? American Economic Review, 96, pp. 552–576.) that combines both liquidity and information effects.     

The World Bank and Poverty: The Plight of the World's Impoverished Is Still a Major Concern of the International Agency.

Abstract . Since the early 1980s, the World Bank has taken on new tasks in addition to its regular development finance function: preventing economic collapse in borrower countries, helping heavily indebted countries cope with their international payments difficulties, and encouraging basic economic policy reform and structural adjustment in developing countries. Many critics worry that, as the World Bank has taken on these new responsibilities, it has lessened its concern about poverty. The Bank and its friends argue that poverty alleviation remains a central element of the Bank's agenda, but the world situation is different than it was during the 1970s and new kinds of action are needed today. The Bank believes that economic reform and structural adjustments are crucial elements of a modern anti-poverty program. Many critics believe that structural adjustment programs may seriously hurt the poor. Exploring the arguments and reporting the ways the World Bank has sought to respond to this controversy, the author concludes that the issue is a fundamental disagreement about whether the new modes of Bank lending and the Bank's new policy emphasis will have a positive or negative effect on the poor.     

Structural change in Malawi since independence: Consequences of a development strategy based on large-scale agriculture

This paper investigates the nature of the structural change which has occured in the Malawian economy since independence and identifies key policies pursued by the government which it is argued have been decisive in shaping this development. The salient feature of structural change is shown to be the rapid growth of large-scale agriculture, associated with an equally rapid transfer of labour into wage employment and a decline in the importance of peasant production. The implications of these changes for living standards and future development and policy are considered.     

WHAT CAN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTE TO THE ‘SUSTAINABILITY’ DEBATE?

Economics generally, and benefit-cost analysis in particular, are not substitutes for values. They are tools of analysis that rest on assumptions about values. The primary role for economics in normative analysis is to provide information about efficiently achieving that which is valued, not to make the decision. The major economic tool for analyzing normative issues is benefit-cost analysis. This paper considers the role of benefit-cost analysis in addressing the sustainability debate. The notion of "sustain-ability" raises concerns about values held by society. The analysis here addresses several issues within the sustainability debate: concerns about intergenerational equity including the appropriate discount rate for projects with environmental consequences; implications for burdens on future generations; and the moral basis for benefit-cost analysis. The authors argue that the correct discount rate for all such projects is the social rate of time preference, and that suggestions for using lower discount rates result from attempting to prevent inequities by adjusting prices. Additionally, the authors argue that economic analysis, especially benefit-cost analysis, can play a useful role in providing information to decision makers, who ultimately will face resource allocation issues as they seek to implement policies promoting sustainability.     

Sovereign Debt: A Primer

The troublesome debts of a number of developing countries havespawned a large literature on why countries borrow, on the extentto which debt contributes to growth, on why countries repay,and on how debt problems should be handled. This article providesa basic introduction to some issues in sovereign debt. First,it presents the basic accounting concepts associated with debt.Second, it treats debt as a component of the intertemporal maximizationof a borrower in a competitive loan market facing an intertemporalbudget constraint. Third, it introduces debt into recent modelsof endogenous growth and examines what these models imply aboutthe relationship between debt and growth. Fourth, it discussesissues arising from sovereign risk. Fifth, it examines incentivesto repay. Sixth, it reviews the various options available toa creditor facing a debtor unwilling to meet current debt serviceobligations. Seventh, it examines debt buybacks.