Labour trends in agriculture: The case of the summer rainfall grain‐producing area

The impact of changes in the labour force on commercial agriculture has received little systematic research attention. In this study the major trends in the post‐war years are described and analysed. It is shown that there has been an increasing substitution of labour for capital over the past fifteen years. The causes of this substitution trend are identified, and it is shown that these should be taken into account in the formulation of farm policy. Labour trends in commercial agriculture also have implications for the broader Southern African economy, and some tentative remarks in this regard serve as motivation for further research.     

DIC in variable selection

Model comparison is discussed from an information theoretic point of view. In particular the posterior predictive entropy is related to the target yielding DIC and modifications thereof. The adequacy of criteria for posterior predictive model comparison is also investigated depending on the comparison to be made. In particular variable selection as a special problem of model choice is formalized in different ways according to whether the comparison is a comparison across models or within an encompassing model and whether a joint or conditional sampling scheme is applied. DIC has been devised for comparisons across models. Its use in variable selection and that of other criteria is illustrated for a simulated data set.     

Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis

Thirlwall's hypothesis of balance of payments constrained growth has been widely tested for developed countries, but much less for developing countries. Further, previous tests have used dated estimates derived using non-robust econometric techniques. After discussing the conditions under which Thirlwall's hypothesis would be valid and the econometric issues involved, this study reports error correction estimates of import and export demand functions for a large sample of developing countries. Deriving the long run income elasticities of demand from these functions, the study reports tests for different specifications of Thirlwall's hypothesis on this sample and finds some support for it.     

The Effect of Social Capital on Fertiliser Adoption: Evidence from Rural Tanzania

Do the characteristics of local social structures affect fertiliseradoption among rural households? This paper extends the modelof technology adoption of Feder and Slade (1984) to incorporatesocial capital, and then tests the model with household datafrom two agro-ecological zones in rural Tanzania. Probit estimatesof the model show that the probability of adoption of improvedfertiliser in 1994–5 in the Central Plateau region isincreasing in land under cultivation, cumulative adoption patterns,ethnically based social affiliations, the adoption of improvedseeds, the availability of credit and extension services andthe average years of residence in the village. In the Plainsregion, this probability is increasing in land under cultivation,ethnically based social affiliations and consultative norms.Overall, these results, which are robust after testing for thelikely reverse causality of land under cultivation, supportthe finding that ethnically based and participatory social affiliationsact as forms of social capital in the adoption decision.     

Rich and poor before the Industrial Revolution: a comparison between Java and the Netherlands at the beginning of the 19th century

This paper examines disparities in the level of economic development at the beginning of the 19th century, comparing between the Netherlands and Java. A detailed reconstruction of GDP and purchasing power parities shows that before the Industrial Revolution Java’s GDP per capita was about a third of the level of the Netherlands, confirming Angus Maddison’s estimates. Disparities in real wages were much smaller, however, for skilled laborers real wages on Java were higher than in the Netherlands. This paradox arises because the structure of the economy and the distribution of income of both countries was very different.     

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