An Investigation of Analysts' Praise of Management During Earnings Conference Calls

Through the textual analysis of a large sample of earnings conference calls, the authors find that analysts praise management on over half of earnings conference calls by saying complimentary phrases such as “congratulations on the great quarter.” The results show that analysts' complimentary phrases reflect the nature of the information released at the earnings announcement. The authors find that the amount of praise by analysts on an earnings conference call is strongly associated with the earnings surprise and to a greater extent the earnings announcement stock return. They also find that there is value to investors in tracking analysts' flattery of management during earnings conference calls, as it predicts abnormal stock returns over the following quarter. The findings, which are incremental to prior research on the tone of earnings conference calls, highlight a previously ignored aspect of analyst feedback.     

Advice in the marketplace: a laboratory study

There is substantial evidence that the decisions of experienced and inexperienced agents differ in ways that impact both individual earnings and aggregate market outcomes. Typically, such evidence is gathered by studying experience as it accumulates within subjects over time. We examine a new question; whether behaviors associated with experience can be transferred directly to new market participants. Specifically, we study the intergenerational transmission of information, including direct advice, in experimental asset markets. Empirical results suggest that advice is a substitute for experience. Prices in sessions with advised traders shift towards fundamentals—a pattern consonant with prior work exploring the impact of own-experience on pricing dynamics. Further, convergence is observed in mixed-markets where only a subset of traders are advised.     

Response for ILA worldviews panel papers

Leadership is about knowledge, skills, and abilities for transformation. It is also increasingly about worldviews or visions of life—beliefs, values, and principles. But worldviews are also ways of life, for beliefs direct us, values guide us, and principles motivate us to certain kinds of action and behavior. How, then, do worldviews have an impact on leadership for transformation? If worldviews are glasses or filters by which we view the world, mental models of the bigger picture, frameworks by which we make sense of the world, and narratives by which we orient our lives, then how do they influence human thoughts, ideas, and behaviors when it comes to transformative leadership? This was the subject matter of an International Leadership Association Conference panel discussion held in November 2009 in Prague, entitled Leadership for Transformation: The Impact of Worldviews. It is also the subject matter of this issue's symposium, in which we bring you the four papers and the response presented at the conference. Members of the panel were characterized by gender, disciplinary, religious, and global diversity. Nathan Harter, organizational leadership professor at Purdue University in the United States, begins the discussion with some preliminary remarks about worldviews. Ali Mohammed Mir, medical doctor and director of programs of Population Council, Pakistan, speaks of leadership from an Islamic perspective. Michael Jones, accomplished composer, pianist, and leadership educator, writer, and speaker from Orillia, Canada, reflects on how a “marriage of mythos and logos” can transform leadership today. Lisa Ncube, originally from Zimbabwe and currently assistant professor of organizational leadership at Purdue University, speaks about Ubuntu as an alternative leadership philosophy emerging from Africa. John Valk, associate professor of worldview studies at Renaissance College, University of New Brunswick, Canada, speaks of leadership for transformation from a Christian worldview perspective. Jonathan Reams, associate professor in the Department of Education at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim, responds to all of the papers and opens a venue for further discussion. We hope that you will find this symposium engaging. We hope it will give food for thought and that it might stimulate further thinking regarding the role worldviews play in leadership for transformation.     

The impact of reputation on analysts’ conflicts of interest: Hot versus cold markets

During periods of high IPO underpricing, unaffiliated all-star analysts from high reputation banks issue fewer strong-buy recommendations while unaffiliated all-star analysts from low reputation banks do not change their level of optimism. In contrast, unaffiliated non-star analysts from both high and low reputation banks issue more strong-buy recommendations. Consistent with the results on analyst optimism, the market reacts more favorably to strong-buy recommendations by unaffiliated all-star analysts from high reputation banks than other unaffiliated analysts during high IPO underpricing periods. Finally, we find that unaffiliated non-star analysts from low reputation banks reduce their coverage following an SEO if they are not selected as a part of the managing syndicate. Collectively, our results indicate that during periods of high IPO underpricing unaffiliated analysts face conflicts of interest, but personal-level reputation, and to a lesser extent bank-level reputation, plays a role in reducing this bias.     

Technology, wages, and skill shortages: evidence from UK micro data

Why have skill shortages continue to persist despite increasesin training and the skill levels of the workforce? We arguethat technical progress has raised the demand for skilled labourto match the observed increase in supply. We provide econometricevidence in support of this hypothesis, showing that skill shortagesare higher for establishments that use advanced technology inthe production process. We also provide econometric evidencethat hiring difficulties are inversely related to the relativewage, as theory would suggest. Our results have clear implicationsfor policy. If technological progress continues to be skillbiased, policies that address skills deficiencies will onlybe successful if they produce a continual, rather than a temporary,increase in levels of skills among the workforce.     

Stock returns,aggregate earnings surprises,and behavioral finance

We study the stock market's reaction to aggregate earnings news. Prior research shows that, for individual firms, stock prices react positively to earnings news but require several quarters to fully reflect the information in earnings. We find a substantially different pattern in aggregate data. First, returns are unrelated to past earnings, suggesting that prices neither underreact nor overreact to aggregate earnings news. Second, aggregate returns correlate negatively with concurrent earnings; over the last 30 years, for example, stock prices increased 5.7% in quarters with negative earnings growth and only 2.1% otherwise. This finding suggests that earnings and discount rates move together over time and provides new evidence that discount-rate shocks explain a significant fraction of aggregate stock returns.     

The Use of Debt to Prevent Short-Term Managerial Exploitation

This paper emphasizes the versatility of debt by presenting a setting in which debt is used to assuage a manager. Our result is driven by the option-like feature of shareholder ownership in the presence of debt and the detrimental effect of diversification (reduced volatility) on option value. The diversification effect is introduced in our model when the shareholders use a “portfolio of managers” over the firm’s life. In contrast, retaining the existing manager is a riskier strategy. Debt makes this risky strategy desirable for the shareholders and, thus, serves to commit them to be more patient in firing decisions. Viewed broadly, the paper stresses the interaction between capital structure, information system design, and control systemsWe thank C.D. Aliprantis (Editor), Tim Baldenius, Joel Demski, Ron Dye, John Fellingham, Hans Frimor, Ronen Israel, Chandra Kanodia, Brian Mittendorf, James Peck, Doug Schroeder, Lixin Ye, workshop participants at Carnegie Mellon, Columbia University, Ohio State University, and the European Summer Symposium in Financial Markets, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Anil Arya gratefully acknowledges assistance from the John J. Gerlach Chair     

The Internationalization of a Production Network and the Replication Dilemma: Building Supplier Networks in Mainland China

Replication can be a powerful strategy for firms, but the replication of organizational practices is not easy, and there exists a real tension between replication and adaptation. This paper looks at the sourcing strategies and supplier networks of three Taiwanese machine tool companies in mainland China to understand the conditions under which replication may be more or less likely to occur. In addition, by viewing the cases as examples of the production network internationalization and by considering the issue of convoy migration in such a context, this paper presents a new way of thinking about the internationalization of industrial networks.     

The determinants of corporate board size and composition: An empirical analysis

Using a unique panel dataset that tracks corporate board development from a firm's IPO through 10 years later, we find that: (i) board size and independence increase as firms grow and diversify over time; (ii) board size—but not board independence—reflects a tradeoff between the firm-specific benefits and costs of monitoring; and (iii) board independence is negatively related to the manager's influence and positively related to constraints on that influence. These results indicate that economic considerations—in particular, the specific nature of the firm's competitive environment and managerial team—help explain cross-sectional variation in corporate board size and composition. Nonetheless, much of the variation in board structures remains unexplained, suggesting that idiosyncratic factors affect many individual boards’ characteristics.