Stochastic Generational Accounting Applied to Reforms of Dutch Occupational Pensions

This paper examines stochastic or ‘value based’ generational accounting as a method to assess the intergenerational redistributive impact of pension reform. The analysis is applied to three policy changes to the regulation of Dutch occupational pensions during the years 2012 and 2013 that mark the transition from defined benefit pensions to ‘defined ambition’ pension schemes.     

Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

Determining farm effects attributable to the introduction and use of a dairy management information system in The Netherlands

Yearly production and reproduction data on dairy farms in The Netherlands were obtained to determine whether management information systems significantly improved herd performance variables (management information systems (MIS) effects). The analysis included 357 adopters of a management information system and 357 herds were used as controls. The data comprised years 1987 through 1996, and included for the adopters both the ‘before’ and ‘after’ period. Panel data analysis enabled to estimate MIS effects both within and between farms, allowing for a separation of farm‐specific effects and common (trend) effects. Adoption and use of a management information system resulted in a significant annual increase in rolling herd average milk (carrier) and protein production of 62 and 2.36 kg per cow, respectively. Calving interval was shortened by 5 days. The pay‐back period was approximately 5 years of the system (including the hardware), and therefore, MIS appears to be economically profitable.     

Consumer benefits and demand impacts of regular train timetables

This paper reports novel research into the benefits that rail travellers receive from more regular features of timetables over and above any benefits of improved frequency. A stated preference (SP) exercise amongst rail travellers was conducted to estimate these benefits and the generally plausible results have been used to enhance a rail demand model which in turn has been used to forecast the effect on demand of more regular timetables for a range of situations. Not surprisingly, the demand impacts are generally relatively small, although they would be welcome additional benefits in the evaluation of a regular timetable.     

Football in Greater Manchester: Growth Effects of Premiership Status Teams

An extensive body of economic literature suggests that in the United States, there is little gain to a city from using tax revenues to subsidize or in other ways support professional sports franchises. One of the difficulties with these studies is the stability of professional team location. Manchester, England provides an opportunity to examine the growth effects associated with adding and subtracting top tier teams from a single sport in a single area over the course of several decades. Five different Greater Manchester area teams have been in the Premiership with as few as one and as many as four in any given year since the founding of the Premiership. Using Greater Manchester borough level data from 1991 through 2013 we look for changes in gross value added overall and in categories associated with professional sports when Premiership status changes. We find no sustained role for Premiership status, but do find a one off gain in gross value added growth when a team is promoted.     

Buffering and bridging as environmental strategies of firms

Companies are often confronted with important strategic issues, such as environmental concerns. Generally, they react in one of two basic ways: buffering the enterprise or bridging the issue. Insight into the factors determining the choice between those two generic strategies is important for managers. Three recent and mutually related analytical frameworks from corporate communication and management theory are discussed and exemplified by the Shell Brent Spar case. This case shows the development of two generic environmental strategies over time: initial buffering of the firm from external stakeholders, and later a shift towards a bridging strategy. On the basis of our theoretical and empirical analysis, it appears that top management's attitude regarding cooperation with external stakeholders plays a key role in choosing bridging versus buffering strategies. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.