WHAT HAPPENED TO THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY? ICT,INTANGIBLE INVESTMENT,AND BRITAIN'S PRODUCTIVITY RECORD REVISITED

Despite the apparent importance of the "knowledge economy," U.K. macroeconomic performance appears unaffected: investment rates are flat, and productivity has slowed. We investigate whether measurement issues might account for this puzzle. The standard National Accounts treatment of most spending on "knowledge" or "intangible" assets is as intermediate consumption. Thus they do not count as either GDP or investment. We ask how treating such spending as investment affects some key macro variables, namely, market sector gross value added (MGVA), business investment, capital and labor shares, growth in labor and total factor productivity (TFP), and capital deepening. We find: (a) MGVA was understated by about 6 percent in 1970 and 13 percent in 2004; (b) instead of the business investment/MGVA ratio falling since 1970 it has been rising; (c) instead of the labor share being flat since 1970 it has been falling; (d) growth in labor productivity and capital deepening has been understated and growth in TFP overstated; and (e) TFP growth has not slowed since 1990 but has been accelerating.     

Covariate Measurement Error in Quadratic Regression

We consider quadratic regression models where the explanatory variable is measured with error. The effect of classical measurement error is to flatten the curvature of the estimated function. The effect on the observed turning point depends on the location of the true turning point relative to the population mean of the true predictor. Two methods for adjusting parameter estimates for the measurement error are compared. First, two versions of regression calibration estimation are considered. This approximates the model between the observed variables using the moments of the true explanatory variable given its surrogate measurement. For certain models an expanded regression calibration approximation is exact. The second approach uses moment-based methods which require no assumptions about the distribution of the covariates measured with error. The estimates are compared in a simulation study, and used to examine the sensitivity to measurement error in models relating income inequality to the level of economic development. The simulations indicate that the expanded regression calibration estimator dominates the other estimators when its distributional assumptions are satisfied. When they fail, a small-sample modification of the method-of-moments estimator performs best. Both estimators are sensitive to misspecification of the measurement error model.     

PERSPECTIVE: Ranking Business Schools on the Management of Technology

Current centers of active research on the management of technology and innovation (MOT) are identified through the use of a publication‐based study. This article develops a methodology for ranking centers of MOT research and in doing so identifies 120 centers of MOT research in different parts of the world. Centers of research are identified in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America. Detailed assessment is offered for the 21 U.S.‐based schools with three or more active MOT researchers present. The nature and quality of research activity is assessed with a series of 21 metrics. These metrics consider the number of active faculty, the number of publications researchers have in the base journals during the study period, total publication history, MOT publication history, number of equivalent articles, number of pages published, frequency of citations, and a series of metrics that are a combination of two or more of these factors. The assessment identifies four groups of schools that have MOT research capabilities. Schools with substantial research capability are divided into three tiers based on their rankings in different metrics. Each of the schools ranked in the first tier placed first on at least two of the 21 metrics considered in this study. A reasonable argument can be made that any one of the schools ranking in the first tier is the strongest school in terms of MOT research capabilities. These U.S.‐based schools in alphabetical order are Georgia Tech, MIT, Rensselaer, Rutgers, and Stanford. An important point to note is that there are clear differences in research focus between the different first‐tier schools; therefore, it is quite likely that different types of students, faculties, and practitioners will find each of the first‐tier schools most attractive based on personal fit with these differences in specialization. The schools in the second and third tier have substantial MOT research capability. The fourth tier identifies 18 additional U.S.‐based schools that have some capability due to a core of two researchers. This core could be the springboard to a national ranking or a transitory state due to departure of a faculty member. Future research should consider the stability of the results over time and should explore the links among research capabilities, program structure, student output, and placement.     

Corporate Entrepreneurship and Real Options in Transitional Policy Environments: Theory Development

ABSTRACT We develop a theoretical framework for describing, modelling, and predicting entrepreneurial strategies by corporations in transitional public policy environments. Drawing on research in entrepreneurship, real options, and strategic management under uncertainty, we demonstrate how corporations affected by government policy can use entrepreneurial strategies to exploit discontinuities generated by uncertain and unstable public policy environments. We argue that specific strategies will be effective depending on the degree and slope/inflection profile of policy change. Four strategies are identified: preemptive, optioned, synchronized, and adaptive. We develop propositions and provide illustrations to show how each of these strategies has helped firms respond to transitional policy environments. We conclude by offering a discussion of the utility and limitations of the framework and its potential application to other managerial circumstances in which uncertainty is pervasive, and by describing opportunities for further research, including empirical testing of our model.     

Strangers′ Disease: Determinants of Yellow Fever Mortality during the New Orleans Epidemic of 1853

During the summer of 1853, New Orleans experienced one of the worst epidemics in the history of the United States. Immigrants accounted for a vast majority of the deaths. In this paper, we analyze differential mortality risk from yellow fever using microdata form interment records. Using a logit model, we sort out the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on mortality risk. We establish that the strong relationship between nativity and yellow fever mortality disappears once we control for poverty status and immunization as measured by duration of residence in New Orleans.     

Development,research and participation: Towards a critique of participatory rural appraisal methods

This article examines the theory and techniques used in participatory rural appraisal (PRA), describes the emergence of PRA as a response to conventional approaches in developmental research, and offers a critique of PRA from an anthropological perspective. It is argued that PRA is a promising alternative to conventional development research methods but has certain weaknesses which undermine its overall aims. Of central concern are assumptions about social context. The author suggests that a more critical perspective should be incorporated into PRA to overcome its present limitations.     

The changing post-war pattern of development: The accumulated wisdom of Samir Amin

This paper utilizes a criticism of the influential theories of Samir Amin as a basis for questioning some widely held assumptions about constraints on industrialization. In particular, the size and character of internal markets in developing countries is examined and the conclusions, in conjunction with an examination of sources of domestic demand, the growth of heavy industry, and resultant changes in the division of labour suggest that the ‘neo-Marxist’ tradition of analysis does not provide a helpful framework for understanding contemporary developmental processes.