Insider trading and firm-specific return volatility

Roll (J Financ 43:541–566, 1988) argues that firm-specific stock return volatility may result either from informed trading or from noise trading that is unrelated to information. In this paper we provide evidence that insider purchases are inversely related to the idiosyncratic volatility of stocks. We also find that stock idiosyncratic volatilities are generally inversely related to future 6- and 12-month returns. Our results are primarily driven by the timing of insider sales rather than insider purchases. The results are consistent with an information-based explanation of firm-specific return volatility.     

Manufacturer marketing initiatives and retailer information sharing

This research examines a retailer’s incentive to share information with its supplier when the supplier can also undertake initiatives to increase retail demand. It is well known that a retailer is averse to sharing market information with a manufacturer due to concern for a manufacturer’s strategic use of such information. This research shows that despite such strategic exploitation of market information, a retailer may want to establish information sharing channels with its supplier. Information sharing essentially shifts power upstream which, in turn, enhances the manufacturer’s incentive to bear costs to boost retail demand: the manufacturer is induced to invest merely by knowing that information is on its way. Hence, the retailer benefits from information sharing ex ante despite the costly ex post exploitation by the manufacturer. This finding is a stark contrast to the most of previous results which consistently point out how bad it is for the manufacturer to have the retailer’s demand information before setting prices. In fact, due to the investment effect, information sharing can lead to gains for the retailer, manufacturer, and consumers alike.     

Conjoint analysis of demand for IP telephony: the case of Japan

With the recent diffusion of broadband (BB) services, Internet protocol (IP) telephony is expected to spread significantly in Japan. This article investigates the demand for IP telephony by using conjoint analysis. Projecting IP telephony demand also contributes to Japanese info-communication policy discussions. Two points are made. First, IP telephony is still currently considered an optional supplement or an add-on service option of high-speed BB Internet access services in Japan rather than a close substitute of existing plain old telephone service (POTS). At this point, we find little evidence that many households will promptly forsake their fixed line service for IP telephony. Second, we conclude that the key condition for the proliferation of IP telephony is the complete guarantee of quality of service (QoS), including voice quality, number portability, fax usage and emergency access, comparable to or exceeding that of existing POTS.     

HMO plans,self-selection and utilization of health care services

This study examines the effect of health maintenance organizations (HMOs) on the use of health care services among the privately insured, nonelderly population. To consider jointly the possible self-selection bias and high frequency of zero observations in the applied utilization measures, we accommodate the endogeneity of health plan choice decisions in the censored regression model. Using data from the 2000 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we find strong evidence for favourable self-selection into HMO plans. Health maintenance organization enrollment is found to encourage greater use of office-based and hospital outpatient services. Overall satisfaction with the quality of care among HMO members is relatively low compared to that among nonHMO members. These findings suggest that more effort is needed to develop management strategies in HMOs in order to contain the moral hazard in utilization and assure the quality of service provided within the network of HMO providers.     

Consumption,housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle

How important are collateral constraints for reproducing salient features of the data? To address this question, we estimate two nested versions of a New Keynesian model: one with collateralized household debt and the frictionless version of the same model. Both versions of the model are fit to Canadian data using Bayesian methods. We argue that the presence of collateral constraints improves the performance of the model in terms of overall goodness of fit. Housing collateral helps to generate a positive correlation between consumption and house prices. Moreover, housing collateral induced spillovers boosted consumption growth during the housing market boom‐bust cycles of the late 1980s and early 2000s.     

Price Discrimination with Demarketing

We study how demarketing interacts with pricing decisions to explain why and when it can be employed as the seller's optimal strategy. In our model, a monopolistic seller offers different price‐quality bundles of the product. A consumer's preference is private information. With demarketing, consumers must make a costly effort to purchase and/or utilize the product, whereas with marketing, the seller instead makes the effort so that the consumer's purchasing decision is independent of the cost of effort. Our result suggests that, for small or large effort costs, it is optimal for the seller to engage in marketing. For intermediate effort costs, however, demarketing can be optimal. With demarketing, the seller induces only the consumers with high valuation to make transaction effort. By doing so, the seller can price discriminate more effectively, thus extracting more surplus. We extend our analysis to the case where the seller can offer special deals through exclusive sales channels along with demarketing. Then, demarketing can be optimal even for large costs of effort.     

Testing for a Debt‐Threshold Effect on Output Growth

Using the Reinhart–Rogoff dataset, we find a debt threshold not around 90 per cent but around 30 per cent, above which the median real gross domestic product (GDP) growth falls abruptly. Our work is the first to formally test for threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and median real GDP growth. The null hypothesis of no threshold effect is rejected at the 5 per cent significance level for most cases. While we find no evidence of a threshold around 90 per cent, our findings from the post‐war sample suggest that the debt threshold for economic growth may exist around a relatively small debt‐to‐GDP ratio of 30 per cent. Furthermore, countries with debt‐to‐GDP ratios above 30 per cent have GDP growth that is 1 percentage point lower at the median.     

Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia: A Bottom-Up Default Analysis

Under adverse macroeconomic conditions, the potential realization of corporate sector vulnerabilities could pose major risks to the economy. This paper assesses corporate vulnerabilities in Indonesia by using a Bottom-Up Default Analysis (BuDA) approach, which allows projecting corporate probabilities of default (PDs) under different macroeconomic scenarios. In particular, a protracted recession and the ensuing currency depreciation could erode buffers on corporate balance sheets, pushing up the probabilities of default (PDs) in the corporate sector to the high levels observed during the Global Financial Crisis. While this is a low-probability scenario, the results suggest the need to closely monitor vulnerabilities and strengthen contingency plans.