Nonstationary nonlinear heteroskedasticity

In this paper, we consider time series with the conditional heteroskedasticities that are given by nonlinear functions of integrated processes. Such time series are said to have nonlinear nonstationary heteroskedasticity (NNH), and the functions generating conditional heterogeneity are called heterogeneity generating functions (HGF's). Various statistical properties of time series with NNH are investigated for a wide class of HGF's. For NNH models with a variety of HGF's, volatility clustering and leptokurtosis, which are common features of ARCH type models, are manifest. In particular, it is shown that the sample autocorrelations of their squared processes vanish only very slowly, or do not even vanish at all, in the limit. Volatility clustering is therefore well expected. The NNH models with certain types of HGF's indeed have sample characteristics that are very similar to those of ARCH type models. Moreover, the sample kurtosis of the NNH model either diverges or has a stable limiting distribution with support truncated on the left by the kurtosis of the innovations. This would well explain the presence of leptokurtosis in many observed time series data. To illustrate the empirical relevancy of our model, we analyze the spreads between the forward and spot rates of USD/DM exchange rates. It is found that the conditional variances of the spreads can be well modelled as a nonlinear function of the levels of the spot rates.     

Transmission of Stock Prices and Volatility from the Influential Major Markets on the Emerging Market: A Case Study of the Korean Stock Market

Abstract

This study investigates how the 1997 crisis has changed the Korean market by focusing on price and volatility spillovers from the US, Chinese, and Japanese markets. Using the exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model, new information on stock prices originating in the US market was transmitted to the Korean market for all periods. The price spillover effect from the Japanese market to the Korean market became stronger from the crisis period. Asymmetry in the spillover effect on market volatility was more pronounced in the Korean market after the financial crisis.     

Sluggish Recovery from the Financial Crisis: Crowding-out Effect and Contagion

Abstract

The stimulus plans by the US Government after the financial crisis in 2008 may decrease private investment by means of a crowding-out effect. The US Federal Reserve utilized quantitative easing policies to maintain the interest rate as low as possible to minimize crowding-out. The 2008 financial crisis also affects other economies through contagion effects. This paper investigates the existence of the crowding-out effect and contagion effect after the crisis using Temin and Voth's models. The empirical results from vector autoregession show that there is a crowding-out effect in the US economy as well as a contagion effect of the crisis on the Korean and Japanese economies.     

Why Do Landlords Include Utilities in Rent? Evidence from the 2000 Housing Discrimination Study (HDS) and the 2002 American Housing Survey (AHS)

This study assesses the decision to include utilities in the rent and the effect of this decision on rents. We utilize individual house-level data from the 2000 Housing Discrimination Study (HDS) and 2002 American Housing Survey (AHS), and determine that the cost of meter installation is not the only reason that utility costs are included in rent. We find evidence that landlords include utilities in the rent to attract more customers. Additionally, our findings demonstrate that utility inclusion behavior differs significantly between old and new building owners. For the hedonic rent estimation, we find that the decision to include the cost of utilities in the rent raises rent.     

GARCH with omitted persistent covariate

This paper analyzes the effect of omitting a persistent covariate in the GARCH-X model. In particular, we show that if the relevant persistent covariate is omitted and the usual GARCH(1,1) model is fitted, the model will be estimated approximately as an IGARCH model. This may well explain the ubiquitous evidence of the IGARCH in empirical volatility analysis.     

Financial guarantors’ executive compensation,charter value and risk-taking

Financial guarantees have been extensively used recently as part of rescue packages to bail out troubled institutions and governments around the world. We propose a new incentive compensation model for studying agency conflict between the shareholders and the manager of a typical financial guarantor. In our model, the manager chooses the guarantor's risk level, with disutility to reduce risk (i.e., reducing the risk of the guarantor incurs a direct cost to the manager). Moral hazard causes the manager to select a level of risk that is higher than the level chosen in an otherwise first-best environment with no conflict of interest between the shareholders and the manager. However, in our proposed framework, charter value plays a self-disciplining role on the manager's appetite for risk, therefore it helps mitigate the extent of the deviation from first best with agency conflict found previously (e.g., 0055, 0015 and 0020). This suggests that researchers should study charter value, managerial compensation and risk decisions within a unified framework and not separately, as all studies have done in the past.     

The impact of labour unions on external auditor selection and audit scope: evidence from the Korean market

We examine whether labour unions influence external auditor selection and audit scope. As a major user group of financial information, labour unions likely demand financial information of high quality and thus high-quality audits. As a union’s request for wage increases is likely strong when a firm is performing well, management facing wage negotiations with the labour union has incentives to manipulate earnings downward and may therefore prefer auditors who allow more discretion. Using union data unique to Korea during 2005–2008, we find that firms with a stronger labour union tend to choose higher-quality auditors (i.e. Big N or industry specialist auditors). We also find that unionization is negatively (positively) associated with positive (negative) abnormal audit fees and audit hours, and the effects are more pronounced when the union is stronger and more active. Given that departures from normal audit fees and audit hours in either direction arguably impair audit quality, this finding is consistent with our prediction of unions’ demand for high-quality audits. Overall, our findings suggest that labour unions play an important role in determining audit quality.     

House Price Dynamics with Household Debt: The Korean Case*

This paper revisits the long‐run determinants of house prices, and analyzes the house price dynamics using Korean data taking into account the close relationship between house prices and household debt. The results of cointegrating regression indicate that the major portion of the rise in house prices in Korea over the last 15 years can be explained by changes in macro variables such as household income, the demographic structure, the user cost of home ownership and the housing stock supply. The results also confirm that house prices are, indeed, closely linked to the steep increase in household debt seen over this period. Estimation of an error correction model shows that the extent of convergence of actual house prices to their long‐run equilibrium path has weakened somewhat since the global financial crisis while the speed of convergence has slowed, indicating structural changes in the Korean housing market. Finally, a forecast for house prices over the next several years suggests that they are unlikely to rise as sharply as they did in the 2000s, given the likely changes in the macro‐financial environment, and that their future path will be closely associated with that of the household debt‐to‐income ratio.     

Trade liberalization, heterogeneous firms and the soft budget constraint

We analyze the interaction between the soft budget constraint (SBC) and international trade by placing Segal’s (1998) SBC model within Melitz’s (2003) framework of international trade with heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. As in Segal’s model, SBC may result in moral hazard. The opening to international trade adds another sort of inefficiency. Some firms that would have become exporters in the absence of SBC choose to apply low effort and not export in order to extract a subsidy from the government. This effect takes place when the trade costs are sufficiently low. Overall, however, trade liberalization reduces inefficiencies generated by SBC. The number of firms subject to moral hazard SBC decreases, aggregate effort level increases and aggregate profits lost due to SBC-induced sub-optimal effort decline as trade costs decrease.     

Mentoring functions and turnover intention: the mediating role of perceived organizational support

Despite an increasing number of studies investigating the effects of mentoring on employee work outcomes, limited attention has been placed on the relationship between mentoring functions and turnover intentions. In this study, we examined the relationship between mentoring functions and turnover intentions, and the mediating role of perceived organizational support (POS) on this relationship. Using data collected from 176 employees in three Chinese banks, we found that POS partially mediated the relationship between mentoring functions and employees' turnover intentions.