Properties of Market Expectations of Accounting Earnings by Financial Analysts: UK versus US

This paper compares patterns and properties of financial analysts' forecasts (FAFs) of earnings between the UK and the US. Using 299 UK and 400 US firms from the same data source—Institutional Brokers Estimate System tapes—the accuracy of forecasts is examined and the sources of errors analysed. The results reveal that FAFs errors in the UK are much smaller than those in the US, and that this disparity persists even after controlling for firm size and industry effects. Further, FAFs of US firms demonstrate consistent overestimation of earnings over the sample period 1988–1990, while UK firms show overestimation in only one of three years. A model developed to test the determinants of forecast error reveals that forecasters of UK firms are influenced in a somewhat different fashion from those of US firms. While dispersion, predisclosure information (market capitalisation or number of analysts), and industry are common determinants of forecast error for both countries, the percentage of forecasts revised is a major determinant only for UK firms.     

The effects of interactional fairness on satisfaction and behavioral intentions: Mature versus non-mature customers

Given the growing number of mature people, mature consumer behavior has become an increasingly important area of interest to marketers. This article focuses on the effects of interactional form of service fairness to mature customers as compared to non-mature in the U.S. restaurant industry. Following a two-step approach, this study investigates how age differences moderate the relationships between interactional fairness and satisfaction/behavioral intentions. This research stresses the mediating role of satisfaction between interactional fairness and future behavioral outcomes. The findings have important implications for the successful management of customer relationships in a restaurant setting. Limitations and future research directions are also discussed.     

Determinants of the Effectiveness of Corporate Codes of Ethics: An Empirical Study

Recent figures reported by KPMG confirm the growing prevalence of corporate codes of ethics globally. Svensson et al. (Bus Ethics 18:389–407, 2009) in surveys of the largest corporations in Australia, Canada, and Sweden found a similar trend. The increased prevalence of corporate codes of ethics has been accompanied by heightened research interest in various aspects of these documents, e.g., the contents and focus of the codes. However, there is a paucity of research examining the effectiveness of these documents and the organizational infrastructure that accompany them. This study, based on a survey of Canada’s largest corporations, sought to empirically assess the determinants of the effectiveness of corporate codes of ethics by regressing managers’ perceptions of code effectiveness against various elements of ethics programs. It was found that, in a statistically significant model, eighteen independent variables explain 58.5% of the variance in the perceived effectiveness of corporate codes of ethics.     

Citations of Most Often Cited Economists: Do Scholarly Books Matter More than Quality Journals?

This paper empirically investigates the determinants of citations based on the publication of the top 100 most often cited economists. The effects of publication age and author fame on subsequent citations are found to be positive and significant. Citations are also significantly affected by popular subfields in economics. However, journal quality measures, such as impact factors, download statistics and top‐4 elite journals, have insignificant effects on citations. In contrast, the citation effect of scholarly books is positive and significant, and its impact is even greater than those of journal quality measures.     

Generative Bayesian neural network model for risk-neutral pricing of American index options

Financial models with stochastic volatility or jumps play a critical role as alternative option pricing models for the classical Black–Scholes model, which have the ability to fit different market volatility structures. Recently, machine learning models have elicited considerable attention from researchers because of their improved prediction accuracy in pricing financial derivatives. We propose a generative Bayesian learning model that incorporates a prior reflecting a risk-neutral pricing structure to provide fair prices for the deep ITM and the deep OTM options that are rarely traded. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study to compare classical financial option models with machine learning models in terms of model estimation and prediction using S&P 100 American put options from 2003 to 2012. Results indicate that machine learning models demonstrate better prediction performance than the classical financial option models. Especially, we observe that the generative Bayesian neural network model demonstrates the best overall prediction performance.     

On expectations‐driven business cycles in economies with production externalities: A comment

Eusepi (2009, International Journal of Economic Theory 5, pp. 9–23) analytically finds that a one‐sector real business cycle model may exhibit positive co‐movement between consumption and investment when the equilibrium wage‐hours locus is positively sloped and steeper than the household’s labor supply curve. However, we show that this condition does not imply that expectations‐driven business cycles will emerge in Eusepi's model. Specifically, a positive news shock about future productivity improvement leads to an aggregate recession whereby output, employment, consumption and investment all fall in the announcement period.     

Overconfidence and emotion regulation failure: How overconfidence leads to the disposition effect in consumer investment behaviour

Investment decisions and outcomes often entail a myriad of emotions. In this article, the authors examine overconfidence and its effect on investment behaviour. The authors show that overconfident investors tend to trade in greater volumes and exhibit stronger disposition effect. Previous research has shown disposition effect to be an outcome of loss aversion and lack of self-control, and this article shows that the disposition effect is also caused by emotions such as ‘pride’ and ‘shame’, which shows up to a greater degree in overconfident people. Overconfident consumers are prone to realize gains early, in order to feel pride and hold on to losing stocks because admitting losses creates shame. It is also shown that overconfident investors trade in greater volumes and have greater ‘illusion of control’.     

Real money balances as factor saving media: A note

Conclusion A variety of specifications and arguments have been presented in the past in dealing with money in the production system. The most plausible role of money in production seems that it saves production factors as an indirect servicing medium facilitating exchanges and other transaction activities. Based on this hypothesis, real money balances were introduced into the input demand equations in a simultaneous production-equation system. It has been found thatm ₁ plays a more significant factor-saving role thanm ₂ and it saves capital more than labor. Considering the theoretical merits and the statistical consistency of our model, it is suggested that in macro model building real money balances should be treated as input-saving media appearing in the input demand equations rather than direct production factors to be included in the production function.     

The impact of the SARS outbreak on Taiwanese hotel stock performance: An event-study approach

The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 weakened the Taiwanese economy. The tourism industry suffered the most, experiencing the highest stock price decline (approximately 29 percent) within a month of the SARS outbreak. This research examined the effect of the SARS epidemic on Taiwanese hotel stock price movements using an event-study approach. Seven publicly traded hotel companies experienced steep declines in earnings and stock price during the SARS outbreak period. On and after the day of the SARS outbreak, Taiwanese hotel stocks showed significantly negative cumulative mean abnormal returns, indicating a significant impact of the SARS outbreak on hotel stock performance. Empirical findings could be used to prepare businesses for the similar epidemics, such as a deadly bird-flu epidemic.     

The teaching of ethics in Canadian Schools of Management and Administrative Studies

Business ethics has been described as a prime academic growth industry. This paper reports the findings of a survey aimed at establishing the status of ethics in the curricula of Canadian Schools of Management and Administrative Studies. It was found that twenty-three of the forty-two responding schools offer courses in business ethics and that they offer a total of twenty-five ethics courses, twenty of which are offered as electives. Forty-two percent of the schools not offering a course in business ethics plan to offer such a course by 1989. This means that by 1989 seventy-four percent of the responding schools should have a business ethics component in their curricula.Jang B. Singh, B. A. (Toronto), M. A. (St. Thomas), M. A. (Toronto), M.B. A. (Windsor), Ph.D. (Toronto), is Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Business Administration of the University of Windsor. His research focus is on ethical issues involved in the management process. He also maintains a keen interest in issues related to business in the Third World.