A comparison of importance weights and willingness-to-pay measures derived from choice-based conjoint, constant sum scales and best–worst scaling

We review the measurement of product attribute importance, and find little consensus in definition or measurement methods. We compare four measurement methods: 1) two direct methods whereby respondents report the importance of attributes using best–worst scaling or constant sum scales, and 2) two indirect methods derived from discrete choice experiments. Our comparisons rely on previous findings that choice experiments are externally valid to use as the standard. We find high agreement within direct or indirect methods, but less agreement between direct and indirect methods. Our results also demonstrate that inferences derived from indirect measures appear to be susceptible to context effects related to the particular attributes a researcher chooses to investigate. We discuss implications for current and future research.     

A simple method for estimating preference parameters for individuals

This paper demonstrates a method for estimating logit choice models for small sample data, including single individuals, that is computationally simpler and relies on weaker prior distributional assumptions compared to hierarchical Bayes estimation. Using Monte Carlo simulations and online discrete choice experiments, we show how this method is particularly well suited to estimating values of choice model parameters from small sample choice data, thus opening this area to the application of choice modeling. For larger sample sizes of approximately 100–200 respondents, preference distribution recovery is similar to hierarchical Bayes estimation of mixed logit models for the examples we demonstrate. We discuss three approaches for specifying the conjugate priors required for the method: specifying priors based on existing or projected market shares of products, specifying a flat prior on the choice alternatives in a discrete choice experiment, or adopting an empirical Bayes approach where the prior choice probabilities are taken to be the average choice probabilities observed in a discrete choice experiment. We show that for small sample data, the relative weighting of the prior during estimation is an important consideration, and we present an automated method for selecting the weight based on a predictive scoring rule.     

From creating to confronting racial hierarchies: The evolving role of the US state in land policy

From systemically dispossessing Indigenous people of their territory for Euro-American settlement to routinely denying African American farmers operating loans in the 20th century, the US government's complicity in creating racial hierarchies in terms of land access is well documented. Less understood is how land policies oriented towards racial equity, namely, the Justice for Black Farmers Act (JBFA), and other initiatives that deal with land access as well as addressing racism more broadly, emerged during recent decades. In this article, we argue that such initiatives resulted from Black-led organizations and other farmer advocacy allies responding to neoliberal policy reforms. Concretely, even as these reforms destabilized farm economies, they also led to a decentralization of agricultural policy administration, which, in turn, created opportunities for community-based organizations to influence land governance. We make this argument after presenting a three-part periodization of the evolution of US land policy, starting with the emergence of racial hierarchies, then the period of partial reforms that began during the New Deal and, finally, the era of neoliberal reform.     

MATURITY AND REFUNDING EFFECTS ON TREASURY-BOND FUTURES PRICE VARIANCE

Both Samuelson's maturity hypothesis and the Anderson-Danthine state variable hypothesis are tested in this study of the variance of Treasury-bond futures prices. Both maturity and the quarterly refunding of Treasury debt have statistically and economically significant effects on futures price variance. The evidence for a monotonic maturity effect is highly statistically significant and robust to changes in model specification. The quarterly refunding is less statistically significant, and it is not clear whether the greatest effect is in the auction week or two weeks thereafter. Economically, these two predictable effects are of greater importance than a change in the discount rate.     

Threat of falling high status and corporate bribery: Evidence from the revealed accounting records of two South Korean presidents

Research Summary: Social status and its dynamics may be an important predictor of which firms will engage in large‐scale bribery. Prior theory is incomplete, however, and prior studies have lacked comprehensive and reliable data on firm‐level bribery decisions. We offer a new theoretical prediction and a novel data set on high‐level corruption in South Korea, where the accounting records of two presidents in the 1987–1992 era were exposed to after‐the‐fact legal and public scrutiny. We find that, controlling for a range of alternative explanations, the threat of falling high status—that is, the combination of longstanding high social status with current‐period mediocre economic performance relative to that of industry peers—is a statistically and economically meaningful predictor of increases in the amount of large‐scale corporate bribery. Managerial Summary: What leads companies to engage in large‐scale bribery of senior politicians? Our concept of “threat of falling high status” refers to a circumstance where companies that have historically enjoyed high status through their owner families’ elite marriage networks experience mediocre economic performance relative to their peers. We show that this threat of falling high status is a notable determinant of large‐scale corporate bribery of senior politicians, using court data on corporate bribery of two South Korean presidents during 1987–1992. The implication of our study is twofold. Companies can strengthen internal control systems to avoid any large‐scale illegal activities at a higher level. Law enforcement agencies can also implement targeted monitoring programs to preempt illegal activities among companies facing the threat of falling high status.     

An exploratory analysis of the effect of numbers of choice sets in designed choice experiments: an airline choice application

Stated choice (SC) experiments are increasingly adopted as the empirical source of information on how individuals respond to current and potential travel contexts. The accumulated experience with SC data has been heavily conditioned on analyst prejudices about the acceptable complexity of the data collection instrument, especially the number of profiles (or treatments) given to each sampled individual (and the number of attributes and alternatives to be processed). It is not uncommon for analysts to impose very stringent limitations on the complexity of an SC experiment. A review of the literature suggests that very little is known about the basis for rejecting complex designs or accepting simple designs. In this paper, we develop a complex design as the basis for an SC study, producing a fractional factorial of 32 rows. However, we then truncate the fraction by administering 4, 8, 16, 24 and 32 profiles to a sample of individuals in Australia and New Zealand faced with the decision to fly (or not to fly) between Australia and New Zealand by alternative airlines and fare regimes. Statistical comparisons of elasticities (an appropriate behavioural basis for comparisons) suggest that the empirical gains within the context of a linear specification of the utility expression associated with each alternative in a discrete choice model may be quite marginal.     

Shareholder activism and voluntary disclosure

We examine the relation between shareholder activism and voluntary disclosure. An important consequence of voluntary disclosure is less adverse selection in the capital markets. One class of traders that finds less adverse selection unprofitable is activist investors who target mispriced firms whose valuations they can improve. Consistent with this idea, we find that managers issue earnings and sales forecasts more frequently when their firm is more at risk of attack by activist investors, and that these additional disclosures reduce the likelihood of becoming an activist’s target. These additional disclosures also prompt a positive price reaction, contain more precise guidance, and exceed prevailing market expectations. These findings imply that managers use voluntary disclosure to preempt activism at their firm, and that activists prefer to target relatively opaque firms.