Nonparametric analysis of treatment effects in ordered response models

Treatment analyses based on average outcomes do not immediately generalize to the case of ordered responses because the expectation of an ordinally measured variable does not exist. The proposed remedy in this paper is a shift in focus to distributional effects. Assuming a threshold crossing model on both the ordered potential outcomes and the binary treatment variable, and leaving the distribution of error terms and functional forms unspecified, the paper discusses how the treatment effects can be bounded. The construction of bounds is illustrated in a simulated data example.     

Financial crisis risk,ECB “non-standard” measures,and the external value of the euro

I study the impact of banking and sovereign debt crisis risk of EMU member states on the external value of the euro. Using a regime switching model, I find that the external value of the euro has significantly responded to financial crisis risk during the period of November 2008–November 2011, while no significant effect is found for the period from February 2006 to October 2008. This suggests that the monetary expansion and interest rate cuts associated with the ECB's “non-standard” measures may have reduced the external value of the euro.     

Exponential stock models driven by tempered stable processes

We investigate exponential stock models driven by tempered stable processes, which constitute a rich family of purely discontinuous Lévy processes. With a view of option pricing, we provide a systematic analysis of the existence of equivalent martingale measures, under which the model remains analytically tractable. This includes the existence of Esscher martingale measures and martingale measures having minimal distance to the physical probability measure. Moreover, we provide pricing formulae for European call options and perform a case study.     

A Review and Comparison of Bandwidth Selection Methods for Kernel Regression

Over the last decades, several methods for selecting the bandwidth have been introduced in kernel regression. They differ quite a bit, and although there already exist more selection methods than for any other regression smoother, one can still observe coming up new ones. Given the need of automatic data‐driven bandwidth selectors for applied statistics, this review is intended to explain and, above all, compare these methods. About 20 different selection methods have been revised, implemented and compared in an extensive simulation study.     

Redistributive taxation with heterogeneous relative consumption concerns

Abstract This paper studies the impact of redistributive income taxation in a society where only some individuals are motivated by relative consumption concerns. Introducing this heterogeneity raises theoretical challenges since (i) earned income becomes an imperfect indicator of underlying ability and (ii) relative concerns may be inadmissable in the social objective. A new behavioural model is developed in which only relatively‐concerned individuals choose work effort strategically. Linear tax/transfer systems schemes are then characterized and simulated for a series of welfarist and non‐welfarist social objectives, and for different degrees of preference heterogeneity. A key result is that a government which understands the extent of relative consumption concerns–but places no social weight on individuals with such preferences–nevertheless sets a significantly more progressive tax system than a government which ignores relative consumption motivations altogether.     

Optimal top marginal tax rates under income splitting for couples

This paper provides formulas for optimal top marginal tax rates when couples are taxed according to income splitting between spouses, consumption is taxed, and the skill distribution is unbounded. Optimal top marginal income tax rates are computed for Germany using a dataset that includes the tax returns of all German top taxpayers. We find that the optimal top marginal tax rate converges to about 2/3 and convergence obtains at income levels that are substantially higher than those currently subject to the actual top tax rate.     

Advertising a product to face a competitor entry: a differential game approach

We analyze a market in which advertising is the dominant marketing tool to create market share. We assume that an incumbent firm dominates the market during an initial stage, and that a new competitor is going to enter the market. In particular, we analyze the different advertising policies that the incumbent firm can adopt, before and after the entry of the rival. We explore three possible behaviours. In the first scenario the firm knows that the competitor will arrive at a given instant. In the second one we assume the original firm to be surprised, in the sense that it does not anticipate the entry of the opponent either because it does not expect the competitor to arrive, or it is not prepared to react before the entry takes place. Finally, in the third scenario, the original firm knows that the competitor will enter at a constant rate. We characterize a differential game model and compare the firms’ behaviours in a strategic perspective.     

Beyond biofuels: Assessing global land use for domestic consumption of biomass: A conceptual and empirical contribution to sustainable management of global resources

Consumption of natural resources should not exceed sustainable levels. The increasing use of biofuels and to some extent biomaterials, on top of rising food and feed demands, is causing countries to use a growing amount of global land, which may lead to land use conflicts and the expansion of cropland and intensive cultivation at the expense of natural ecosystems. Selective product certification cannot control the land use change triggered by growing overall biomass consumption. We propose a comprehensive approach to account for the global land use of countries for their domestic consumption, and assess this level with regard to globally acceptable levels of resource use, based on the concept of safe operating space. It is shown that the European Union currently uses one-third more cropland than globally available on a per capita basis and that with constant consumption levels it would exceed its fair share of acceptable resource use in 2030. As the use of global forests to meet renewable energy targets is becoming a concern, an approach to account for sustainable levels of timber flows is also proposed, based on the use of net annual increment, exemplified with preliminary data for Switzerland. Altogether, our approach would integrate the concept of sustainable consumption into national resource management plans; offering a conceptual basis and concrete reference values for informed policy making and urging countries to monitor and adjust their levels of resource consumption in a comprehensive way, respectful of the limits of sustainable supply.