Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?

Most extant work on prediction of banking crises has utilised global samples, which are in turn dominated by observations from middle-income countries, and rely on a single estimator. However, economic and financial structures as well as the pattern of shocks may differ substantially across regions, while a range of specifications is desirable to check robustness. Accordingly, in this paper we test the implicit pooling assumption in earlier multivariate work on Early Warning Systems using both logit and binary recursive tree specifications separately for crises in Asia and Latin America, as well as the pooled sample. Results suggest markedly different crisis determinants across regions, implying global samples are inappropriate.     

注重区域发展的再平衡

2008年拿球金融危机之后,需要进行经济的再平衡.这直接和全球宏观经济的不平衡有关系,源于1997年东业金融危机之后的进一步扩大.这些不平衡就是当前遇到的美国的项目逆差以及进出口等问题.当然,不同的国家意义不一样.     

When Do Analysts Adjust for Biases in Management Guidance? Effects of Guidance Track Record and Analysts’ Incentives

Prior research indicates that analysts do not fully adjust for the general downward bias in earnings guidance issued by management. We report the results of two experiments designed to investigate how guidance track record and analysts’ incentives jointly explain the extent to which analysts adjust for guidance bias. Our results suggest that analysts with accuracy incentives adjust for management’s track record of downwardly biased guidance when the bias is relatively small (one cent), but those with relationship incentives do not. Furthermore, the difference in adjustment is larger when the bias track record is inconsistent than when it is consistent. Also, when guidance bias is larger (two cents) relative to smaller (one cent), analysts with relationship incentives partially adjust, as they appear to strike a balance between accuracy and their desire to please management. These findings hold implications for investors, regulators, and the interpretation of prior research.     

The cluster approach in the innovation development strategy of foreign countries

Foreign experience in carrying out cluster policy and the scales of distribution and the variety of cluster structure types abroad are considered and generalized. The main attention is given to innovation directivity as the key factor of increasing regional and national economic competitiveness. The important role of the state in formation of effective cluster policy providing substantial improvement in the business climate and stimulating the priority development of high-tech fields is placed in strong relief. The next issue of the journal will contain an article about the situation in Russia (Ed.).     

Socio-demographic risks of the long-term development of the Russian economy

Key risks and threats of the long-term development of the Russian economy, originating from the social sphere, are revealed and analyzed. The article focuses on human capital development and replenishment problems, as well as on the social effects of these problems on education, health conditions, labor migration, and pension provision.