Technical trading rules for nonlinear dynamics of stock returns: evidence from the G-7 stock markets

This paper explores a possible link between an asymmetric dynamic process of stock returns and profitable technical trading rules. Using the G-7 stock market indexes, we show that the dynamic process of daily index returns is better characterized by nonlinearity arising from an asymmetric reverting property. The asymmetric reverting property of stock returns is exploitable in generating profitable buy and sells signals for technical trading strategies. The bootstrap analysis shows that not all nonlinearities generate profitable buy and sell signals, but rather only the nonlinearities generating a consistent asymmetrical pattern of return dynamics can be exploitable for the profitability of the trading rules. The significant positive (negative) returns from buy (sell) signals are a consequence of trading rules that exploit the asymmetric nonlinear dynamics of the stock returns that revolve around positive (negative) unconditional mean returns under prior positive (negative) return patterns. Our results corroborate the arguments for the usefulness of technical trading strategies in stock market investments.     

Does Antitrust Enforcement in High Tech Markets Benefit Consumers? Stock Price Evidence from FTC v. Intel

Antitrust enforcement efforts in the United States and abroad have been ramped up in high-tech industries, which has rekindled older and largely unresolved debates concerning the appropriate role of antitrust enforcement in high-tech markets. This paper evaluates the likely competitive effects of Intel’s conduct through two approaches: The conventional approach focuses on traditional antitrust metrics in product markets: prices and output. The second, alternative approach involves turning to financial markets for valuable information. Under either approach, the available data do not support the theory that Intel’s behavior harmed consumers.     

The Role of the Business Press in Creating and Disseminating Information around Earnings Announcements

This paper investigates the role of the business press in creating and disseminating information around earnings announcements by examining different motivations of trading volume. We find that press coverage is positively associated with trading activity motivated by differential interpretation and by differential belief revision, consistent with the press playing both an information creation and information dissemination role around earnings announcements. When we divide press coverage into full articles with additional editorial content and news flashes merely repeating verbatim of firm-disclosed press releases, we find that trading volume motivated by both differential interpretation and differential belief revision increases as coverage by full articles increases, and trading volume motivated by differential belief revision increases as coverage by news flashes increases. We also report that the differential interpretation effect of full articles is more pronounced when information users’ sophistication is high. Overall, we provide new evidence to the literature by showing that each type of press coverage plays an informational role in different motivations of trading activity.     

Socioeconomic adjustments and choice experiment benefit function transfer: Evaluating the common wisdom

It is often argued that attribute adjustments made possible within choice experiments have the potential to improve benefit transfer accuracy. These transfers, however, often omit socioeconomic adjustments; this reflects a limited presence of socioeconomic covariates in broader choice experiments. The lack of correspondence between common guidance that socioeconomic adjustments should be applied and simultaneous arguments for the advantages of choice experiment transfers leads to ambiguity for transfer practice. This paper contrasts the change in transfer performance resulting from an ability to adjust for policy attributes with that resulting from an ability to adjust for socioeconomic attributes. Results are illustrated for the case of agricultural land preservation. The goal is to provide evidence regarding the tradeoff faced by practitioners who seek to use choice experiments for benefit transfer but lack the ability to adjust for socioeconomic attributes.     

China’s Growth,Stability, and Use of International Reserves

Since the onset of the global financial crisis, China and the U.S. have reduced their current-account imbalances as a share of GDP to less than half their pre-crisis levels. For China, the reduction in its current-account surplus post-crisis suggests a structural change. Panel regressions for a sample of almost 100 countries over 1983–2013 confirm that the relationship between current-account balances and economic variables changed in important ways after the financial crisis. China’s rebalancing has been accompanied by a decline in its reserves-to-GDP ratio and greater outward FDI that, in turn, has mitigated reserve hoarding.     

Corporate financing decisions when investors take the path of least resistance

We argue that inertial behavior on the part of investors can have significant consequences for corporate financial policy. One implication of investor inertia is that it improves the terms for the acquiring firm in a stock-for-stock merger, because acquirer shares are placed in the hands of investors, who, independent of their beliefs, do not resell these shares on the open market. In the presence of a downward-sloping demand curve, this leads to a reduction in price pressure and, hence, to cheaper equity financing. We develop a simple model to illustrate this idea and present supporting empirical evidence.     

Controlled Openness and Foreign Direct Investment

The paper investigates why a developing country may adopt a partial reform. A country is considered where the ruling elite (referred to as state capital) prevents the entry of foreign capital, and taxes the private sector before reform. A higher productivity of foreign capital always increases the attractiveness of a partial reform under which state capital can control the inflow of foreign capital, but can reduce the attractiveness of a full reform under which the entry of foreign capital is unregulated. Hence, state capital's control over foreign capital may be a necessary condition for the reform to take place at all.     

Justin Kaplan. When the Astors Owned New York: Blue Bloods and and Hotels in a Gilded Age

Justin Kaplan's When the Astors Owned New York is a probingaccount of how and why the two cousins—William WaldorfAstor and John Jacob Astor IV—spent much of their livesdecorating Manhattan's skyline with grand hotels. Kaplan, aPulitzer Prize-winning biographer of Mark Twain, draws on personalpapers, contemporary press accounts, and various literary worksto locate the Astors in Gilded Age New York high society. TheAstors built hotels not simply to make money, Kaplan contends,but also