Labor force participation

Trends in U.S. female and male labor force participation are outlined, particularly for the post-World War II period. Potential causes of these trends are then discussed, both those that operate on the demand side and those that operate on the supply side of the labor market, along with some discussion of alternative approaches to modeling these employment changes. Effects of these trends and future direction of changes are also considered.     

A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect

From 1992 through early 2004, crude oil prices were predictable by using OECD’s relative inventories and OPEC’s excess production capacity. However, since 2004, estimated inventories and excess production capacity under-predict crude oil prices. Using 3-D graphical analyzes, three regimes are identified in crude oil markets during the period from January 1992 to December 2007, reflecting market conditions and OPEC policy changes. These graphics show the changing relationship between crude oil price, inventories and excess production capacity. To reflect this, a ratchet variable, derived from cumulative excess production capacity, is incorporated into the forecasting model to reflect the changing behavior on both demand and supply sides. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the ratchet mechanism.

Government size,government debt and globalization

This article empirically investigates the effect of globalization on government size and debt. Using panel heterogeneous cointegration techniques to a panel of developing and developed countries, it finds that globalization reduces government size and debt. In terms of components of globalization, government size is found to increase with trade openness but decreases with financial, social and political globalization. On the other hand, government debt increases with financial and trade openness but decreases with social and political globalization. The evidence is robust to different estimation methods and different samples. Our data also indicate unidirectional causality running from globalization measures to government size and debt.     

Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets

We evaluate whether financial openness leaves emerging market economies vulnerable to the adverse effects of capital reversals (“sudden stops”) on domestic investment. We investigate this claim in a broad sample of emerging markets during the period 1976–2002. If the banking sector does not experience a systemic crisis, sudden stop events fail to have a significant impact on investment. Bank crises, on the other hand, have a significant negative effect on investment even in the absence of a contemporaneous sudden stop crisis. We also find that openness to capital flows worsens the adverse impact of banking crises on investment. Our results provide statistical support for the policy view that a strong banking sector which can withstand the negative fallout of capital flight is essential for countries that open their economies to international financial flows.     

The business case for commitment to diversity

Does an organization's commitment to diversity - as reflected by CEO commitment, human capital, corporate communications (internal and external), and supplier diversity - result in competitive advantage and superior financial performance? Diversity can bring new voices and perspectives into the strategy dialogue, help managers understand and address the needs of a demographically diverse customer base, and stimulate a wider range of creative decision alternatives. However, the anticipated benefits of corporate diversity efforts may also be accompanied by costs that can affect shareholder wealth. In a study comparing the financial performance of the DiversityInc Top 50 Companies for Diversity to a matched sample, we find evidence that firms with a strong commitment to diversity outperform their peers on average. For commitment to diversity to become ingrained in corporate culture there must be visible and ongoing support from senior management, a clear articulation of the business case for diversity, line manager accountability, and training programs directed at communications, conflict resolution, and team building.     

Better with coffee: Synergies and library patronage

Agglomeration effects are a relatively well‐studied phenomenon in the marketing literature, but few works have attempted to quantify the benefits to a library of having another business nearby. Taking advantage of a closure for renovations, we quantify the causal effect of having an open Starbucks on the gate count at a nearby college library. We estimate about a 10% increase in foot traffic at the library associated with the coffee shop being open. At the same time, we see no increase in demand for other library services, implying that the appeal may be to a group of more casual users of the library as a “third place.”     

Problem‐Solving Orientations,Financial Self‐Efficacy,and Student‐Loan Repayment Stress

Using data acquired from a four‐time longitudinal survey, we tested a model linking two measures of self‐agency, i.e., problem‐solving orientations and financial self‐efficacy, to student‐loan repayment stress. Of those participants who responded at Wave 4 (N = 855) of a longitudinal study, 396 who had acquired student loans were included in our structural equation model's Mplus analysis. After we controlled for gender, college financial education, ethnicity, and participant annual income, we found that both financial self‐efficacy and negative problem‐solving orientation were related to perceived difficulty. More specifically, those participants with a greater financial self‐efficacy at Wave 4 perceived less difficulty in paying off their loans, while those with a more negative problem‐solving orientation perceived more difficulty in paying off their loans. We also found perceived difficulty to be directly related to the actual difficulty of repaying a loan, and this perceived difficulty was, in turn, associated with loan‐specific stress. We provide implications for financial education.     

Market ambiguity and individual investor information demand

We examine whether ambiguity in the market leads to an increase in information demand by individual investors. Drawing on the asset-pricing model proposed by Mele and Sangiorgi (2015), which incorporates market ambiguity, we measure individual information demand using daily Google searches and measure market ambiguity using a metric based on the market trades of institutional investors. We find that individual investors increase their information demand during periods of greater market ambiguity. We also provide evidence that information demand from individual investors spikes around earnings announcement days primarily when market uncertainty is driven by net-selling activity. Overall, these results suggest that the disagreement among institutional investors either represents uncertainty or contributes to the uncertainty related to a stock, leading to increased demand for information from individual investors.     

The structure of consumer confidence and real value added growth in retailing in the Netherlands

Consumer confidence is a determinant of the willingness to buy and thus of sales in retailing. The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether the structure of consumer confidence in the period 1987-2000 differs from the 1972-87 period. The main finding is that, in the 1972-87 period saving had a precaution motive and in the 1987-2000 period saving had a transaction motive. In the 1972-87 period, the utility and ability of saving were determined by the development of household wealth; and in the 1987-2000 period, the utility and ability of saving are determined by the level of household wealth. The perceived inflation is related more strongly to the perceived development of the general economic situation in the 1972-87 than in the 1987-2000 period. Empirical evidence is found that consumer confidence also influences real sales of retailers.