The effect of expertise on consumers' satisfaction with the use of interactive recommendation agents

Based on cost‐benefit theory and the value‐percept diversity model, this study investigates the underlying mechanism that makes consumers feel satisfied with the use of interactive recommendation agents (IRAs). The format of IRAs was manipulated experimentally (attribute‐based format/benefit‐based format/no agent) and participants were classified as either expert or novice consumers. The dependent measures were the perceived costs and benefits of the information search process, the perceived costs and benefits of the decision‐making process, and the degree of satisfaction with the outcome. The results explain the mechanisms underlying consumers' satisfaction when using an IRA. The findings also suggest the presence of an interaction between the expertise of consumers and the preferred type of IRA on various dependent variables. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Collective bargaining under perfect information. The negotiation of national agreements

We structurally estimate a perfect information bargaining model of collective negotiations using data on national agreements for Spain. The model is a stochastic model of sequential bargaining in which we allow for the possibility of negotiations ending without agreement, a common feature in the data. Delays in equilibrium are the result of uncertainty about the surplus to be divided among the players and not of information asymmetries. The model fits the data well regardless of the limitations imposed by the parametric specification adopted. Our results show that agents are patient and that the advantage from proposing is large.JEL Classification: J50, C73, C78We thank Fabian Marquez, Sergio Santillan and Jose Maria Zufiaur for helping us to create the data base on Spanish National Agreements. We also thank Cesar Alonso, Juanjo Dolado, Gautam Gowrisankaran, Maia Guell, Antonio Merlo and participants at the 1999 European Meeting of the Econometric Society for very helpful comments. Jose E. Galdon thanks financial support from the following institutions: European Commission for a TMR Marie Curie Fellowship, Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnologia for project BEC2002-00954 and Spanish Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte for project PR2004-0057. He also thanks the hospitality of STICERD (LSE) and the IR Section (Princeton University) where part of this work was completed. The usual disclaimers apply.     

Run length and the predictability of stock price reversals

Survival analysis is used to estimate time‐varying probabilities of price reversals using daily data for the Australian All Ordinaries Price Index. Lagged price changes lead to persistence (shortening) in a price run if they are of the same (opposite) sign as the run. An increase in the number of runs observed in the previous 30 days also increases the probability of price reversal. The predictive accuracy of the models is assessed using a probability scoring rule. Consistent with market efficiency, the estimated models are less accurate than the random walk model in predicting the length of individual price runs out‐of‐sample.     

An Action Pattern Model of Inter‐firm Cooperation*

abstract An action pattern model was developed and applied to the examination of inter‐firm cooperative processes. The model considered cooperation as a continuous cycle of actions and reactions between cooperating partners. The building blocks of the model include cooperative equilibrium, disruptive events, action types and action patterns. Three action pattern variables were proposed to describe the interactions. It was hypothesized that action patterns are contingent on partner relationships and the transaction cost characteristics of a partnership. The hypotheses were tested on a sample of 263 partnerships in the construction industry in Hong Kong. The quantitative study was supplemented by four in‐depth case studies. The results show that: (1) trust was an important antecedent of action patterns; and (2) transaction cost variables moderate the relationships between partner relationships and action patterns. These findings suggest that future research should give more attention to the interaction of partners during cooperation.     

论我国经济犯罪的刑事政策

当前经济犯罪持续高发,在目前的经济犯罪刑事政策收效甚微的情况下,有必要对其进行反思。文中从刑事司法、刑事立法及犯罪预防三个角度对当前的经济犯罪的刑事政策进行了评析,并提出从这三个方面进行的调整及完善。     

Taking a positive approach to organizational downsizing

We drew from the literature on positive organizational behaviour (Luthans & Youssef, 2007) to test a process model relating generalized optimism (Carver & Scheier, 1999) to the cognitions, affect, and behaviour of 237 Canadian federal government managers during and following a major organizational downsizing. Our data supported a model in which generalized optimism measured 18 months prior to the downsizing (T1) associated positively with managers' cognitions, attitudes, job performance, and self‐reported coping effectiveness measured 12 months postdownsizing (T3). Analyses suggested that some of these associations were partially mediated by a positive thinking coping strategy and expectations for future career and job success reported during the downsizing (T2). We advocate for more research that draws from the positive organizational behaviour literature to study the effects of downsizing on survivors. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Joint and marginal specification tests for conditional mean and variance models

This article proposes a class of joint and marginal spectral diagnostic tests for parametric conditional means and variances of linear and nonlinear time series models. The use of joint and marginal tests is motivated from the fact that marginal tests for the conditional variance may lead to misleading conclusions when the conditional mean is misspecified. The new tests are based on a generalized spectral approach and do not need to choose a lag order depending on the sample size or to smooth the data. Moreover, the proposed tests are robust to higher order dependence of unknown form, in particular to conditional skewness and kurtosis. It turns out that the asymptotic null distributions of the new tests depend on the data generating process. Hence, we implement the tests with the assistance of a wild bootstrap procedure. A simulation study compares the finite sample performance of the proposed and competing tests, and shows that our tests can play a valuable role in time series modeling. Finally, an application to the S&P 500 highlights the merits of our approach.     

Accounting Policy Disclosures and Analysts' Forecasts

Using an international sample, I investigate whether the extent of firms' disclosure of their accounting policies in the annual report is associated with properties of analysts' earnings forecasts. Controlling for firm‐ and country‐level variables, I find that the level of accounting policy disclosure is significantly negatively related to forecast dispersion and forecast error. In particular, I find that accounting policy disclosures are incrementally useful to analysts over and above all other annual report disclosures. These findings suggest that accounting policy disclosures reduce uncertainty about forecasted earnings. I find univariate but not multivariate support for the hypothesis that accounting policy disclosures are especially helpful to analysts in environments where firms can choose among a larger set of accounting methods.     

Health insurance and savings over the life cycle—a semiparametric smooth coefficient estimation

Individuals save for future uncertain health care expenses. This is less efficient than pooling health risk through insurance. The provision of comprehensive health insurance may raise welfare by providing the missing market to smooth out consumption through the life cycle. We employ a semiparametric smooth coefficient model to examine the effects of the introduction of the National Health Insurance in Taiwan in 1995 on savings and consumption over the life cycle. The idea is to estimate the coefficients of health insurance which vary with age. Our results suggest that younger households are more sensitive to the risk reductions, and that they demonstrate a greater response in the reduction of their precautionary saving. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.