Decomposing China–Japan–U.S. trade: Vertical specialization,ownership, and organizational form

We use the US International Trade Commission's uniquely detailed 1995–2007 Chinese Customs data to better understand the pattern of trade between China and its two largest trading partners, Japan and the United States. Our review finds that only a small share of these flows can be characterized as arm's length, one-way trade in final goods. Instead, we find extensive two-way trade, deep vertical specialization, concentration of trade in computer and communication devices, and a prominent role for foreign-invested enterprises. While these characteristics define both bilateral relationships, important differences between the two pairs do emerge, suggesting that trade costs influence the method by which multinationals choose to integrate their production with China. Consequently, we argue that dialogue on East Asian trade liberalization should include the possibility of significant production gains for the US from its inclusion in any regional agreements.     

The Personal Involvement Inventory: Reduction,Revision, and Application to Advertising

Abstract

The conceptualization of the Personal Involvement Inventory was a context-free measure applicable to involvement with products, with advertisements, and with purchase situations. The empirical work to develop this measure was mainly validated with respect to product categories. This paper extends the construct validation of the PII to involvement with advertisements and also demonstrates that the PII may be reliably reduced from twenty items to ten items. There is some indication the revised PII may then be broken into two subscales representing a cognitive and affective grouping.     

The Effect of Substitute Assets on Yields in Financial Markets

We examine the link between volume and liquidity in money markets where there are close substitutes. We find that the size of the market, as a proxy for trading volume, affects yield spreads over T-bill rates. We examine the bankers acceptances market, when market size declined by half over the decade of the 1990s. Controlling for interest-rate levels, day-of-the-week, calendar, term structure, credit spread, time-series, and cross-equation effects, we find that the substitution effect does not eliminate the impact of market-size changes on rates, but it does preserve the hierarchy of rates across instruments.     

Forecasting employment : The role of forward-looking behaviour

Manufacturing output per head rose at an unprecedented rate in the UK in 1981/2, and conventional econometric relationships failed to forecast the associated falls in employment. In this paper we estimate manufacturing employment equations in which output expectations play a central role. These compare fabourably with alternative models, and are able to predict most of the large falls in employment over this period.     

ON THE ROBUSTNESS OF RANGE‐BASED VOLATILITY ESTIMATORS

We empirically examine Parkinson's range‐based volatility estimate in the federal funds market, which is unique because institutional regulations create a predictable pattern in interday volatility. We find that range‐based volatility estimates and standard deviations produce the expected volatility pattern. We also find that at trading pressure points where microstructure noise should be greatest, range‐based estimates are less than the standard deviations. Thus, we support the argument that range‐based volatility estimates remove the upward bias created by microstructure noise. We find that the Parkinson method is the most efficient range‐based volatility measure among a set of alternates in this market.     

An Anatomy Of Racial and Ethnic Trends in Male Earnings in the U.S

Progress in narrowing black–white earnings differences has been far from continuous, with some of the apparent progress resulting from labor force withdrawal among lower‐skilled African Americans. This paper documents racial and ethnic differences in male earnings from 1950 through 2010 using data from the decennial census and American Community Surveys. Emphasis is given to annual rather than weekly or hourly earnings. We take a quantile approach, providing evidence on medians and other percentiles of the distribution. Treatment of imputed earnings greatly affects measured outcomes. Hispanic men have exhibited earnings growth similar to white men over several decades. Black men have been left behind economically due in large part to increased joblessness, a process exacerbated by weak labor market conditions. By 2010, joblessness had risen to over 40 percent and the median black–white earnings gap was the largest in at least 60 years.     

The coming of age of major giving

The beginning of the 21st century may well usher in a golden age of major gifts. Not only are those donors born at the beginning of the twentieth century distributing their wealth, but ‘Baby boomers’ and ‘Generation X’ are accumulating significant assets at much younger ages. Each generation appears able and willing to make larger donations to charities. By rethinking major gifts strategy charities can benefit from the increasing wealth and affluence.Copyright © 2000 Henry Stewart Publications.     

Temporary open market operation on MBS repos: any foreshadowing of the financial crisis of 2008?

The financial crisis of 2008 was significantly influenced by housing, mortgage markets and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Federal Reserve (Fed) conducts temporary open market operations on a daily basis and frequently uses repos on MBS. With this daily interaction with MBS, we examine whether any signal about the impending financial crisis could have been seen in the Fed’s temporary open market operations. We identify four anomalous events in MBS temporary open market operations and examine those events for signals of the financial crisis. We find nothing in the four events that would have provided signals of the financial crisis. Instead, the common feature of the four events is an unusually large supply of MBS made available to the Fed for those day’s temporary open market operations.