On dichotomous choice contingent valuation data analysis: Semiparametric methods and Genetic Programming

The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we introduce a novel semiparametric technique called Genetic Programming to estimate and explain the willingness to pay to maintain environmental conditions of a specific natural park in Spain. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time in which Genetic Programming is employed in contingent valuation. Secondly, we investigate the existence of bias due to the functional rigidity of the traditional parametric techniques commonly employed in a contingent valuation problem. We applied standard parametric methods (logit and probit) and compared with results obtained using semiparametric methods (a proportional hazard model and a genetic program). The parametric and semiparametric methods give similar results in terms of the variables finally chosen in the model. Therefore, the results confirm the internal validity of our contingent valuation exercise.     

What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation?

This paper examines whether the clarity of central bank communication about inflation varies with the economic environment. Using readability statistics and content analysis, we study the clarity of communication on the inflation outlook by seven central banks across three continents during the recent decade. We uncover significant and persistent differences in clarity over time and across countries. However, identifying determinants of clarity that are robustly relevant across our sample of central banks proves elusive. Overall, our findings suggest that a single model for clarity of central bank communication is not appropriate. Rather, when studying clarity of communication, country-specific and institution-specific factors are highly relevant.     

The experience of Latin America with export subsidies

Zusammenfassung Die Erfahrungen Lateinamerikas mit Exportsubventionen. — Vor ann?hernd 30 Jahren wurde aus den ?konomischen überlegungen zum Thema Exportsubventionen abgeleitet, solche Subventionen würden zu gr?\erer Exportdiversifizierung und -leistung fuhren. Die Erfahrung zeigt indessen, da\ das im allgemeinen nicht geschehen ist. Das lag — wie in diesem Aufsatz gezeigt wird — in den meisten F?llen daran, da\ die Exportsubventionen nicht durch eine liberale Importpolitik unterstützt wurden. Im Ergebnis verminderten die Exportsubventionen nur geringfügig die von der Importprotektion ausgehende Exportschw?che lateinamerikanischer L?nder. Zus?tzlich negative Wirkungen sind von sehr unstabilen realen Wechselkursen ausgegangen. Bemerkenswerte Ausnahmen mit guten Exportleistungen sind Brasilien, wo Exportsubventionen von einer Liberalisierung der Importe, einer beachtlichen Stabilisierung der realen Wechselkurse und anderen, exportfreundlichen Ma\nahmen begleitet waren, sowie Mexiko, wo zu den nur minimalen Exportsubventionen eine Abwertung, Stabilisierung und Importliberalisierung hinzukamen.

---

Résumé L’expérience de l’Amérique Latine avec les subventions aux exportateurs. — Il y a prèsque 30 années que les économistes ont argumenté que les subventions aux exportateurs augmenteraient les exportations et que les exportations deviendraient plus diversifiées. Mais au contraire, l’expérience démontre que cette expectation n’est pas arrivée en général. Dans cette étude on a argumenté que la raison pour ce résultat est dans la majorité des cas que les subventions aux exportateurs n’étaient pas secondées par des politiques d’importations plus libérales. C’est pourquoi les subventions aux exportateurs réduisaient seulement un peu le désavantage pour des exportations causé par la politique en Amérique Latine. De plus, les taux de change réels très instabiles ont contribué aux résultats négatifs. Mais il y a des exceptions notables avec une bonne performance d’exportations: le Brésil et le Mexique. En Brésil, les subventions aux exportateurs étaient accompagnées par une libéralisation des importations, une stabilisation significative des taux de change réels et d’autres politiques propices aux exportations. En Mexique, les subventions aux exportateurs seulement peu importantes étaient accompagnées par une dévaluation, une stabilisation et une libéralisation des importations.

---

Resumen La experiencia de Latinoamérica con subsidios a la exportación. — Casi 30 a?os atrás el razonamiento económico sobre subsidios a la exportación sugería que estos resultarían en una mayor diversificación y en un mayor volumen de exportaciones. La experiencia, en cambio, muestra que esto generalmente no ha ocurrido. En este trabajo se arguye que esto se debe a que, en la mayoría de los casos, los subsidios a la exportación no fueron apoyados por políticas de importation liberales. Como consecuencia, los subsidios a la exportaci?n redujeron sólo marginalmente el sesgo antiexportador de los países latinoamericanos. Efectos negativos adicionales sobre las exportaciones derivaron de la inestabilidad de las tasas de cambio reales (RER). Excepciones notables con un buen sector exportador son el Brasil, donde los subsidios fueron acompa?ados por una liberalización de importaciones, una significante estabilización de las RER y otras politicas propicias al crecimiento de las exportaciones, y México, donde subsidios mínimos a la exportación fueron acompa?ados por una devaluatión, una política de estabilización y una liberalización de importaciones.

     

The Surge in Short-Duration Contracts in Spain

Until the outbreak of the recent economic and financial crisis, Spain was leading the ranking of countries with the largest share of temporary employees. During the crisis this share has fallen to its lowest level in decades, but this does not mean that working conditions in Spain have improved. The flow of new temporary contracts is larger than ever before. A particularly striking feature is the steep growth in the volume of fixed-duration contracts lasting less than a week or a month. We document these trends and analyse how this phenomenon has affected the transition from temporary to permanent employment.     

Changing Patterns of Precipitation at the Sooke Reservoir in British Columbia

The paper is a parametric and nonparametric analysis of past precipitation data. We analyze 90 years of daily precipitation data at the Sooke Reservoir in British Columbia, Canada, for evidence of climate change. We fit probability density functions (PDFs) to the data and find evidence of a structural break in the data generating process by using the Andrews-Ploberger test. To confirm this finding, we analyze higher moments of the distribution of precipitation and show that the PDFs have become more leptokurtic. The results show how the pattern of precipitation has changed.     

Unspoken demands for farm technology

For three years in Bolivia (2002–2005) the INNOVA Project finished researching several technologies for sustainable agriculture, started by earlier DFID-funded projects. Before INNOVA started critics suggested that these technologies should be discarded in favour of a demand survey. Instead, INNOVA kept the existing technologies, but judged the demand for them with several methods (CIAL, sondeo technology fair, and others). INNOVA found that there was demand for some of the technologies, but that a survey would have missed much of the demand, which is implicit. That is, people are not initially aware of all their problems or of all the possible solutions. Over the years, farmers made more specific, sophisticated demands on the technologies, which evolved as a result. Demand and supply of farm technology are like two sides of an unfolding conversation.