How does social trust affect corporate financial performance? The mediating role of corporate social responsibility

Prior studies assert that social trust may positively influence the economic performance of countries and firms (within those countries). This paper proposes a more nuanced mechanism whereby corporate social responsibility (CSR) mediates the relationship between country-level social trust and firm-level financial performance. Anchored in neo-institutional theory, we theorize that social trust instills norms of trustworthiness and willingness to trust others guiding individual and corporate behaviors. In order to comply with such norms and gain legitimacy, firms in high-trust society are more likely to commit to CSR activities that serve the interests of stakeholders. CSR activities, in turn, can positively influence financial performance by enabling firms to access stakeholders' resources and capabilities and to decrease transactions costs in the stakeholder relationships. We tested our theory by analyzing 9818 firm-year observations across 34 countries, during the 2006 to 2015 period. Our analysis shows the expected CSR mediation in the relationship between social trust and firm-level financial performance. Our findings are robust across different models addressing the concerns of endogeneity, alternative measures, and potential moderators.     

An analysis of the evolution of global financial network of the coordinated portfolio investment survey

In this study, we construct a directional global financial network using portfolio investment data from more than 200 countries during the first two decades of the 21st century and analyze the properties of the network. Through macroscopic analysis, we show that the network became denser and could be divided into central and peripheral groups. Microscopic analysis shows that, in addition to well-known financial-central countries, relatively less well-known countries played important roles in the global financial network. Further, each country's per capita GDP is positively correlated with its centrality in the network, and the correlation is stronger when measured with inbound investments than when measured with outbound investments.     

The role of observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the duration of unemployment

This paper studies the degree to which observable and unobservable worker characteristics account for the variation in the aggregate duration of unemployment. I model the distribution of unobserved worker heterogeneity as time varying to capture the interaction of latent attributes with changes in labor-market conditions. Unobserved heterogeneity is the main explanation for the duration dependence of unemployment hazards. Both cyclical and low-frequency variations in the mean duration of unemployment are mainly driven by one subgroup: workers who, for unobserved reasons, stay unemployed for a long time. In contrast, changes in the composition of observable characteristics of workers have negligible effects.     

Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?

This paper examines whether central bank communication stabilises euro area inflation expectations through the information and news channel. A novelty of the study is its use of data from Google Analytics on ECB website traffic as proxy for visitors’ attention to its communication. We conduct several econometric tests with daily data to measure the impact of ECB communication on the information demand of the public and ultimately on inflation expectations. Overall, this study shows that website attention, as captured by search volumes of visitors, influences euro area inflation expectations. We find that increased website attention contributes to narrowing the gap between market-based forecasts and (the mean of) longer-term professional inflation expectations. Our findings add to the theoretical evidence on the existence of an information and news channel.     

Asymmetric Inventory Management and the Direction of Sales Changes*

We study manufacturing firms' asymmetric inventory investment in response to sales changes. Focusing on the costs of resource adjustment and stockout that likely differ in sales‐increasing and sales‐decreasing periods, we predict and find that inventory investment declines less during periods with sales decreases than it rises during periods with sales increases. We validate this claim by showing that managers' expectations of future demand and desire to avoid inventory stockouts are important determinants of this asymmetry. In addition, we find that asymmetric inventory investment provides useful information for predicting future sales growth, and that both managers' and analysts' sales forecasts are positively associated with the asymmetry. Lastly, we document that forecasts of future sales growth that incorporate asymmetric inventory investment are associated with lower absolute forecast errors than benchmark forecasts. Overall, we highlight the importance of inventory information in understanding managers' resource adjustment and utilization decisions that have implications for forecasting future demand. Our findings on asymmetric inventory management provide new insights to fundamental analysis based on inventory signals.     

Has the value of cash increased over time?

We document a dramatic increase in the market valuation of cash holdings of US firms from 1988 to 2013. The value of one dollar of cash has increased by $0.019 per year during the period, indicating that shareholders place more value on cash in recent years. We also find that the increasing trend in cash value is driven mainly by increases in institutional shareholdings and accounting conservatism. We further decompose cash change into cash flows from operation (CFO) and cash flows from investing and financing activities, and find that CFO is a significant driver of the increasing trend in cash value.     

Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea-ASEAN commodity trade data

The contribution of this article is to assess the effect of oil prices have on the trade balance in the framework of bilateral commodity trade data between Korea and each of the four ASEAN member countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. To examine this subject thoroughly, we first assume the effects of oil price changes to be symmetric and apply the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to the subject. We find that the price of crude oil indeed has an important role in affecting Korea's trade balance with those four ASEAN economies in both the long- and short-run. We then separate oil price hikes from oil price plunges and implement the nonlinear ARDL method to reveal that there is evidence that changes in oil prices appear to have asymmetric effects on the trade balance for certain products in the long- and short-run.     

Institutions for the taking: property rights and the settlement of the Cape Colony, 1652–1750

We examine the formation of property rights in land during the early settlement by the Dutch of the Cape Colony at the southern tip of Africa. After its founding in 1652 as a provisioning outpost for ships of the Dutch East India Company (VOC), the colonial government promoted settlement initially by granting land with well-specified and enforced property rights in restricted zones near Cape Town. By 1714 it transitioned to accommodate rapidly expanding settlement by creating a weaker form of property rights, the loan farm, which was imprecisely defined and had limited government enforcement. We develop a profit-maximizing monopsony model to explain the VOC's choice to transition from the better-specified land grant to the less well-specified loan farm. We conclude that the decline in the population size and ability of the Khoikhoi, the Cape's original inhabitants, to organize effective resistance to the Dutch invasion was critical to the transition, as it lowered the costs of private enforcement of settlers’ territorial claims. The choice of property rights thus enabled and encouraged the rapid taking by European settlers of the western Cape of Africa for the expansion of the Dutch colony's pastoral economy.