Impacts of trade liberalizations under the Uruguay Round on the world sugar market

The impacts of the Uruguay Round policy provisions on the world sugar market show that these policies will stabilize the world sugar price at slightly higher levels than in the baseline. Global sugar consumption will increase as a result of the income growth caused by the Uruguay Round. Economic resources will be allocated more efficiently among the sugar industries of the various countries. However, the impacts on the sugar industries in countries with strong producer supports will be rather small because the negotiation process of the Uruguay Round has accommodated the changes in sugar policies already implemented by individual countries in the past few years. Low-cost sugar producing countries will benefit from the higher world sugar price, and consumers in countries with protected markets will benefit from lower domestic prices.     

Constructing Historical Euro-zone Data

Existing methods of reconstructing historical Euro-zone data by aggregation of the individual countries' aggregate data raises numerous difficulties, especially due to past exchange rate changes. The approach proposed here is designed to avoid such distortions, and aggregate exactly when exchange rates are fixed. We first compute growth rates within states, aggregate these, then cumulate this Euro-zone growth rate to obtain the aggregated levels variables. The aggregate of the implicit-deflator price index coincides with the implicit deflator of our aggregate nominal and real data. We apply the method to Euro-zone M3, GDP and prices over the previous two decades.     

The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure

To reconcile forecast failure with building congruent empirical models, we analyze the sources of mis-prediction. This reveals that ex ante forecast failure is purely a function of forecast-period events, not determinable from in-sample information. The primary causes are unmodelled shifts in deterministic factors, rather than model mis-specification, collinearity, or a lack of parsimony. We examine the effects of deterministic breaks on equilibrium-correction mechanisms, and consider the role of causal variables. Throughout, Monte Carlo simulation and empirical models illustrate the analysis, and support a progressive research strategy based on learning from past failures.     

Fiscal Sociology: What For?

In discussing the question, Fiscal sociology: What for? we shall first give a short sketch of the history of thought of the field. We will next identify main issues. In discussing the concept of the tax state, we emphasize issues in constitutional public finance. One of the fields in which fiscal sociology has been most important is taxation, and notably income taxation. In citing applications and issues, we identify an entire alphabet of fiscal sociological issues. We conclude by discussing the future of the field in both instruction and research.     

The Demand for Water: Consumer Response to Scarcity

Provision of water raises several issues for municipal utility companies and other suppliers, including reliability of supply in arid regions or during droughts, equity issues that arise because water is literally a necessity, and heterogeneity in consumer response to regulatory policy. We combine experimental and survey responses to investigate demand for water. The experiments simulate water consumption from a potentially exhaustible source, revealing heterogeneous demand for water. We estimate econometrically water demand for different consumer groups. A regulator could use estimates of disaggregated demand to attain conservation goals by designing an incentive compatible pricing system. The example given achieves a conservation goal while minimizing enforcement costs and welfare loss.     

Games Economists Play: A Survey of Non‐Computerized Classroom‐Games for College Economics

The bulk of this unusual paper consists of an extensive online annotated compilation of 113 non‐computerized classroom‐games, most of which can be played within one class period, to assist in the teaching of college‐level basic micro and macroeconomic concepts (see http://www.aug.edu/~sbajmb or http://www.marietta.edu/~delemeeg ).
The paper itself consists of three major sections. The first catalogues, summarizes, and provides sample annotations of the games we collected. Section two makes a number of observations about the games. For instance, we notice an imbalance between games for microeconomics (many) and games for macroeconomics (few). We also detail which standard introductory economics topics are covered well and which are not covered well or missing altogether. For example, we observe that few games exist to present the proper economic role of government in economic affairs. The third section surveys the available literature on the costs and benefits of playing games in the classroom. In particular, our survey reveals that existing studies consider costs and benefits to students and instructors only partially, and we lay out a matrix that should help in the design of improved studies on the efficacy of gaming in the classroom.     

Wage Formation and Bargaining Power during the Great Depression*

We present an econometric analysis of wage behaviour in Norway during the interwar years. The analysis is based on a panel of manufacturing industry data using GMM estimation methods. Our empirical analysis shows that wage formation in the interwar period can be understood with the help of modern bargaining theory and well‐established wage equations. We estimate a long‐run wage curve that has all the standard features of being homogeneous in prices, proportional to productivity, and with a negative unemployment elasticity. We also present some new Monte Carlo evidence on the properties of the estimators used.     

Developing conditions for environmentally sustainable consumption: drawing insight from anti‐smoking policy

This paper starts from the premise that, particularly in industrialized countries, the consumption decisions made by individuals and households are a major source of environmental strain. Several international organizations and national governments have addressed this issue, but, thus far, their efforts have had minimal effect. This paper examines the conditions necessary for the implementation of policy able to effectively reduce the environmental impact of household consumption. It draws from the experience of American tobacco control, a relatively rare example of a public effort that succeeded in reducing the negative consequences of an entitled consumer behaviour. An extensive review of the tobacco control literature informs the conclusion that three fundamental changes brought about conditions conducive to a widespread reduction in smoking, namely, information about its negative effects became common knowledge and was widely believed as true; cigarettes became a target for taxes that raised the price of smoking while placing a penalty on a behaviour increasingly seen as ‘bad’; the public sentiment regarding smoking shifted, deglamourizing the behaviour. The paper further suggests that these changes, which were the result of a concerted public effort, have a similar potential in reducing environmentally unsustainable consumption. A closer tying of consumption to the issue of climate change is suggested as a primary facilitating strategy.     

Balancing liquidity and returns through interbank markets: Endogenous interest rates and network structures

In this article, we develop a model of interbank lending based on liquidity and return on equity considerations of homogeneous banks. We derive the reservation prices of interbank lending and its properties before exploring how, because of an idiosyncratic liquidity shock, banks engage in bilateral lending to form an interbank network. We establish that the resulting networks exhibit realistic properties, including a core-periphery structure. Banks in the core and the periphery of this network differ not only in the amounts of interbank lending and borrowing but also in the interest rates applied to their transactions.