Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE,DSGE‐VAR,and VAR Models

The predictive likelihood is useful for ranking models in forecast comparison exercises using Bayesian inference. We discuss how it can be estimated, by means of marzginalization, for any subset of the observables in linear Gaussian state‐space models. We compare macroeconomic density forecasts for the euro area of a DSGE model to those of a DSGE‐VAR, a BVAR and a multivariate random walk over 1999:Q1–2011:Q4. While the BVAR generally provides superior forecasts, its performance deteriorates substantially with the onset of the Great Recession. This is particularly notable for longer‐horizon real GDP forecasts, where the DSGE and DSGE‐VAR models perform better. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effects of Victim Anonymity on Unethical Behavior

We theorize that victim anonymity is an important factor in ethical decision making, such that actors engage in more self-interested and unethical behaviors toward anonymous victims than they do toward identifiable victims. Three experiments provided empirical support for this argument. In Study 1, participants withheld more life-saving products from anonymous than from identifiable victims. In Study 2, participants allocated a sum of payment more unfairly when interacting with an anonymous than with an identifiable partner. Finally, in Study 3, participants cheated more from an anonymous than from an identifiable person. Anticipated guilt fully mediated these effects in all three studies. Taken together, our research suggests that anonymous victims may be more likely to incur unethical treatment, which could explain many unethical business behaviors.     

高校基本建设的适度性和可持续性

文章从基本建设投入与其他投入的协调性、投入产出动态优化过程中的最佳投入确定、投入过程中的资金风险等方面分析了高校基本建设的适度性;从建筑物本身的可持续性、建筑使用功能的可持续性、基本建设管理的可持续性等方面分析了高校基本建设的可持续性。     

消费者在线评论可信度的影响因素研究

将传播学领域考察媒体可信度的霍夫兰德传播说服模型引入在线评论可信度研究,从信源、信息内容、接收者三个角度,在对现有研究梳理和总结的基础上,结合消费者在线评论的特点加入社会影响因素,提出了在线评论可信度影响因素模型,并以第三方评论网站为例,通过实证研究的方式,系统考察了消费者在线评论的可信度影响因素.同时讨论了该研究的局限性、对于管理实践的启示及未来研究方向.     

芜湖长江大桥下平联及铁路桥面系受力研究

芜湖长江大桥是国内首次采用板桁组合结构建造的一座公铁两用桥.文章以芜湖长江大桥为例,主要通过ANSYS软件建立空间模型研究其下平联及铁路桥面系的分配作用,为在同类型桥梁项目中进行平面方法简化计算时提供理论依据.     

基于VAR的RAROC指标评估证券投资基金绩效——实证分析

秉承风险调整收益的理念,将基于VAR构建的RAROC指标用于中国的基金业。在实证过程中对所涉及的相关指标和基金收益率的分布形态等分别进行计算和检验,主要结论是,基金投资组合的非系统性风险没有充分化解;大多数的基金收益率分布形态呈尖峰和右偏,不严格服从正态分布。     

Maintaining a Reputation for Consistently Beating Earnings Expectations and the Slippery Slope to Earnings Manipulation

This paper investigates whether maintaining a reputation for consistently beating analysts' earnings expectations can motivate executives to move from “within GAAP” earnings management to “outside of GAAP” earnings manipulation. We analyze firms subject to SEC enforcement actions and find that these firms consistently beat analysts' quarterly earnings forecasts in the three years prior to the manipulation period and continue to do so by smaller “beats” during the manipulation period. We find that manipulating firms beat expectations around 86 percent of the time in the 12 quarters prior to the manipulation period (versus 75 percent for control firms) and that manipulation often ends with a miss in expectations. We document that executives of manipulating firms face strong stock market and CEO pressure to perform. Prior to the manipulation period, these firms have high analyst optimism, growing institutional interest, and high market valuations, along with powerful CEOs. Further, we find that maintaining a reputation for beating expectations is more important than CEO overconfidence and is incremental to CEO equity incentives for explaining manipulation. Our results suggest that pressure to maintain a reputation for beating analysts' expectations can encourage aggressive accounting and, ultimately, earnings manipulation.     

区域合作的制度基础:跨界治理理论与欧盟经验

区域合作是促进区域协调发展的重要形式。如何克服现有行政区划障碍与解决各合作方经济发展不平衡这“两个难题”是保证合作可持续发展的关键。解决这两个难题不是一个单纯的基于比较优势理论的资源配置或产业分工的问题,而是要建立合作的制度基础。文章尝试从“跨界治理”的视角,借鉴欧盟的跨界治理经验,研究我国区域经济合作的制度基础,提出建立一个符合市场经济原则的跨界治理体系,为推动中国区域经济合作提供一种新的路径参考。     

加强校园文化建设-提高大学生思想政治素质

在经济全球化的大背景下,一些与社会主义、高校育人目标不相容的东西进入校园,给大学生带来了不良影响.这使得高校的思想政治教育日趋紧迫.在加强思想政治教育工作时,不能仅依靠课堂灌输,校园文化在思想政治教育中起着不可替代的作用.要从物质文化、精神文化、制度文化三个方面加强校园文化建设,以辅助思想政治教育,实现高校育人功能.     

“一带一路”背景下人民币国际化路径研究

人民币国际化,即是使人民币成为全球性贸易、融资、结算、投资储备的货币,形成一个完善的人民币离岸市场体系,同时在境外形成人民币股市、期市等市场体系,进行即期、远期等各种业务。“一带一路”建设和人民币国际化进程是我国实施的重要经济发展战略。“一带一路”倡议亦成为人民币在国际化道路上的重要引擎,相反,人民币国际化也能促进“一带一路”倡议的顺利开展,两者互相依托、相辅相成。研究主要基于“一带一路”倡议,分析人民币国际化发展的机遇、面临的挑战及稳步实施的途径。