Sales Quota Plans: Mechanisms For Adaptive Learning

A vexing problem in managing sales forces occurs when the sales manager does not know the characteristics of a sales territory. In this paper we show how sales quota-bonus plans can be optimally used to learn about unknown territory characteristics over a multiperiod horizon. We demonstrate this process in two scenarios—one in which the sales manager and the rep are symmetrically informed about the territory characteristics, and the other in which the rep is better informed than the manager. Overall our analysis underscores the importance of Bayesian techniques in sales force management.     

Analysis of binary data with the possibility of wrong ascertainment

Most genetic studies recruit high‐risk families, and the discoveries are based on non‐random selected groups. We must consider the consequences of this ascertainment process to apply the results of genetic research to the general population. In addition, in epidemiological studies, binary responses are often misclassified. We proposed a binary logistic regression model that provides a novel and flexible way to correct for misclassification in binary responses, taking into account the ascertainment issues. A hierarchical Bayesian analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo method has been carried out to investigate the effect of covariates on disease status. The focus of this paper is to study the effect of classification errors and non‐random ascertainment on the estimates of the model parameters. An extensive simulation study indicated that the proposed model results in substantial improvement of the estimates. Two data sets have been revisited to illustrate the methodology.     

Capital utilization, economic growth and convergence

Optimal decisions by economic agents regarding the utilization of capital lead to empirically plausible speeds of convergence in one-sector models of economic growth. The relationship between depreciation and capital utilization plays a crucial role in slowing down convergence to the steady state. Cross-country differences in the extent to which the capital utilization decision is internalized along the transition path may lead to differences in convergence rates, even for countries with similar initial and terminal conditions. Finally, by assuming a constant depreciation rate and full capital utilization, standard growth models may be overstating the magnitude of the steady-state equilibrium.     

Estimation of Minimum Market Threshold for Retail Commercial Sectors

Understanding the ability of a local market to support a particular type of establishment is a prerequisite to designing effective development strategies. While several factors contribute to the vitality of the local retail market, the most fundamental factor is the relative size of the market in terms of potential customers. A commonly applied technique to assess the ability of a community to support various business activities is the estimation of demand threshold using simple count data models. However, due to the presence of excessive zeros in the dependent variable, this study uses Hurdle Poisson and Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) count data models and estimates demand threshold for twelve retail commercial sectors for 2,201 counties in the U.S. The results show that the demographic characteristics of the county population and its remoteness are significant factors determining the number of establishments in a county. The results from this study may be used by local economic development practitioners and entrepreneurs to retain, promote, and attract retail commercial businesses in the local communities.     

Reprint to: Infrastructure provision and macroeconomic performance

This paper studies the differences between private and government provision of infrastructure. Capital utilization decisions and their differential role in determining market prices for capital goods under the two regimes of infrastructure provision serve as a critical transmission mechanism for fiscal policy. A subsidy to private providers of infrastructure is preferable to direct government provision irrespective of how the subsidy or expenditure is financed. The case for private provision is much stronger in economies characterized by high levels of congestion. The choice between private and government provision also has a crucial effect on the design of optimal fiscal policy.     

The strategy-shareholder value relationship: Testing temporal stability across market cycles

This study examines the stability of the relationship between diversification and shareholder value across contiguous time periods, organized so as to highlight three distinct market cycles. By defining value as a two-dimensional construct, separating the concurrent economic phenomena of cycle and trend, and controlling for other factors that influence risk and return, this study finds that the best way to protect shareholder value against economic downturns is to diversify in a manner such that ‘all of one's eggs are in similar baskets’.     

Take that jam! An analysis of winning percentage for NBA teams

The won-loss percentage for all games played in a season by NBA teams is modeled as a function of team performance statistics. Four variables field goals, free throws, rebounds, and turnovers are found to be statistically significant and account for more than 90% of the variation in the data. The regression coefficients also appear to be stable from year to year. Predictions for four years obtained from the estimates of one season show good agreement with the observed data. Forecasts for the 1993 season are also given based on mid-season statistics. Predictions for play-off winners are also briefly discussed. The analysis is carried out in the spirit of exploratory data analysis using graphical methods.     

Cultural differences and shareholder value in related mergers: Linking equity and human capital

Merger literature suggests that the relationship between shareholder gains and the relatedness of merging firms is contingent upon the compatibility of the two firms' top management cultures. This hypothesis is tested by surveying the perceptions of cultural differences of top management teams of recently acquired firms, and then relating these perceptions to related stock market gains to the buying firms. The findings suggest a strong inverse relationship between perceptions of cultural differences and shareholder gains, after controlling for perceptions of the buying firm's tolerance for multiculturalism and the relative size of the merging firms.