自贸区设立、贸易发展与资本流动——基于上海自贸区的研究

设立上海自贸区作为推动改革开放的极其重要的政策实验,三年来其制度创新的绩效及相关的影响效应如何？基于此,本文首先考察了自贸区设立对货物贸易进出口的差异化影响,并在此基础上进一步地实证考察了样本期内自贸区的设立对上海资本流动的影响。得到以下结论:(1)自贸区设立对货物贸易进口有显著正向影响,但对货物贸易出口则不显著,也即自贸区设立对货物贸易净进口有显著正向影响。(2)基于模糊断点回归设计和非线性双重差分模型的研究发现,自贸区设立对上海地区资本流动有显著正向影响,且企业家信心因素也影响到了资本流动。(3)通过对不同叶宽情况下非参数估计值的考察,表明标识变量的基准结果十分稳健。同时为了排除广东、天津、福建等省市的特殊性,我们采用了剔除及延长样本期的方式重新进行了检验,结果进一步证实了上述结论的可靠性。     

国家审计与国家治理:理论基础和实现路径

刘家义审计长提出了"审计实质上是国家依法用权力监督制约权力的行为,其本质是国家治理这个大系统中一个内生的具有预防、揭示和抵御功能的‘免疫系统’,是国家治理的重要组成部分"的重要论断(简称审计的"国家治理"论)。本文探讨"国家治理"论的理论基础和实现路径。我们认为,"国家治理"论秉承社会契约论,基于不完全契约下的代理理论,在国家审计本质、目标和职能认识上,实现了对"免疫系统"论和"审计监督"论的超越和升华。国家审计应坚持以提升人民幸福为中心,围绕建立善治政府,充分运用监督、评价和鉴证三大职能,主要从监督责任、评价效率、提高透明度和促进民主法治四个方面,夯实国家治理基础,促进善治,最终提升人民幸福。     

Saving or tunnelling: value effects of tax avoidance in Chinese listed local government-controlled firms

This paper investigates the value effect of tax avoidance and its underlying mechanisms among Chinese listed local government-controlled (LG) firms. We show that tax avoidance does not promote firm value in LG firms with government ownership smaller than 40 percent and the above negative tunnelling effect is more pronounced when the control rights are concentrated in the local government and weaker when other large shareholders can act as a countervailing force. Finally, we observe a positive relation between tax avoidance and related-party transactions as well as overinvestment, again indicating a tunnelling effect in LG firms with government ownership smaller than 40 percent.     

Nonlinear Capital Flow Tax: Capital Flow Management and Financial Crisis Prevention in China

How to promote capital account liberalization while preventing financial crises is a challenging task for policymakers. This study proposes a nonlinear (progressive) capital flow tax as a solution. We first demonstrate that the collateral requirement of international borrowing can give rise to multiple equilibria and self‐fulfilling financial crises. We then show that the crisis equilibrium characterized by large exchange rate depreciation, capital flight and welfare loss can be eliminated by imposing a nonlinear (progressive) tax scheme on capital outflows with the marginal tax rate increasing with the size of individual capital outflows. The implementation of such a tax scheme in China is also discussed.     

The Effect of SNAP and School Food Programs on Food Security,Diet Quality,and Food Spending: Sensitivity to Program Reporting Error

There is an extensive research literature on the effects of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on food‐related outcomes which has shown somewhat mixed results but generally favorable effects. However, most of the research has used data sets whose information on SNAP participation is gathered from responses on household surveys, and such responses are subject to reporting error. This study uses the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey data set to examine the effect of reporting error on food‐related outcomes, for that data set contains information on SNAP participation gathered from government administrative records. Our analysis shows that the degree of reporting error is small and has little effect on the estimated impact of participation in the SNAP program on food security, diet quality, and food spending. A supplemental analysis of the effect of school food programs likewise shows no difference in using survey or administrative data in the analysis.     

新春贺辞

金虎辞旧岁,玉兔迎新春。在这辞旧迎新之际,我谨代表中共济南市委宣传部,向长期以来关心、支持济南经济社会发展的海内外读者朋友和网民朋友表示衷心的感谢!向辛勤工作在外宣战线上的同志们表示亲切的慰问!     

政府规制国内研究综述

构建适应我国特殊国情的政府规制理论,促进我国社会转型顺利进行和市场经济的健康发展,是我国学者对规制理论进行研究的最终目的。笔者以达成此目的的路径为线索,对近年来我国学者对该领域的研究进行了梳理：引进西方规制理论;思考我国规制理论与西方的差异;研究适合我国国情的规制理论。     

Analysis of multiple response in marketing research: Estimating the degree of association

Researchers often are forced to analyze nominally-scaled multiple response questions for which respondents have provided more than one response. A Multiple Index of Predictive Association (MIPA) is derived for estimating the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable when one or both variables have multiple responses. MIPA is illustrated using demographic and preference data. The relevance of the Multiple Index of Predictive Association to marketing and its implications are discussed.     

利益认知与国际规范的国内化——以中国对国际气候合作规范的内化为例

国际规范国内化的根本原因不在于国内结构的不同,不在于国内文化与规范的匹配程度是否较高,也不在于国际组织的教育作用,而在于国家是否在与国际机制的互动中其某种需要获得了一定程度的满足,或是激发了一种积极的国家利益认知。在中国对国际气候合作规范的内化中,现有的国际气候机制激发了中国希望在应对气候变化问题上掌握主动权的需要,从而形成了一种积极的国家利益认知。这种国际规范国内化的表现就是中国决定彻底转变经济增长方式,而通过对相关指标的考察可以发现这种内化已经达到了比较高的程度。     

Mitigating the Influence of Analysts Who Issue Aggressive Stock Price Targets: The Role of Joint Versus Separate Evaluation*

Investors frequently rely on individual analysts' stock price targets. Aggressive price targets often reflect analysts' attempts to strategically influence investors. Therefore, investors' welfare may be compromised if they take aggressive price targets at face value. In this study, we examine conditions under which investors are more likely to infer that analysts who issue aggressive price targets are acting strategically. Investors can evaluate multiple analysts' price targets with or without other related information (e.g., earnings estimates). Investors can also evaluate the information provided by multiple analysts jointly or separately one analyst at a time. Two experiments find that as predicted, when investors evaluate multiple analysts' price targets without earnings estimates, there is no difference in investors' perceptions about whether the aggressive analyst is acting strategically across joint versus separate evaluation. However, also as predicted, when investors evaluate multiple analysts' price targets along with their earnings estimates, investors perceive the aggressive analyst as acting more strategically under joint evaluation than under separate evaluation. Our findings suggest that jointly evaluating multiple analysts' price targets with other related information, such as earnings estimates, can reduce the likelihood that investors would be overly influenced by aggressive analysts.