速度层次交流理论及其在农村剩余劳动力转移中的应用

农村剩余劳动力转移问题能否合理解决 ,不仅直接影响到中国农民收入、农民生活条件和实现农业现代化的进程 ,而且也关系到非农产业乃至整个国民经济的协调发展。在本文中作者提出了速度层次交流理论 ,并从该理论出发提出解决中国农村剩余劳动力的相关政策建议及措施。     

Public Disclosure of Forward Contracts and Revelation of Proprietary Information

Financial executives of firms engaged in forward contracting have raised concerns that mandated disclosure of those contracts would reveal proprietary information to rival firms. This paper considers the basis for those concerns in the framework of a duopoly in which one privately informed producer enters the forward market prior to production. In choosing its forward position, the firm considers the effects of that position on the forward price and second stage product market competition with its rival. Two regimes are considered: mandated disclosure and no disclosure. Under the former, the contracting firm faces a tension between exploiting its information advantage in the forward market and attempting to influence the production decision of its rival. On average, in equilibrium, the contracting firm gains a first-mover advantage, but at the cost of revealing its private information to its rival and extracting less expected gains from uninformed forward market participants. In contrast, with no disclosure, the contracting firm cannot influence rival firm beliefs, but extracts more expected gains from its private information in both the forward and product markets. On balance, the contracting firm prefers no disclosure. Moreover, parameterizations exist such that the rival also prefers that regime. These findings explain the opposition of respondents to draft proposals of Statement of Financial Standards No. 133.     

Identifying technology trends for R&D planning using TRIZ and text mining

The current pace of technological development has forced many companies to invest significant capital and resources in research and development (R&D) activities. A systematic and efficient method of identifying technology trends and their evolutionary potentials can help companies guide their R&D planning and wisely allocate their R&D resources. This study proposes a framework combining the evolutionary trends developed by the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving, or Teoriya Reshniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch (TRIZ) in Russian, with the visualization technique of text mining to systematically identify technology trends from patent documents. As technological information in patent documents is stored almost entirely in text format, the text mining method allows R&D personnel to efficiently identify technology trends and effectively conduct R&D planning. Utilizing text mining method on patents of magnetic random access memory (MRAM) systems and the underlying principles of TRIZ evolutionary trends, this study shows that MRAM includes 10 important technology trends. These trends have almost reached the evolutionary limit phase defined by TRIZ, which means that MRAM is fast becoming a mature technology. Therefore, for businesses that intend to acquire MRAM technology they do not possess, a wise R&D plan may be licensing the technology, buying the technology from others, or participating in a joint venture rather than using in‐house R&D.     

Vertical Integration and Proprietary Information Transfers

Suppose that rival downstream producers of a final good contract with the same upstream supplier of an input and, in the process, reveal private information. A vertical merger between the upstream supplier and one of the downstream firms may dissipate the information advantage of the remaining downstream firms. The welfare consequences of such a merger and related information sharing depend on the value of information, the benefits of integration apart from information sharing, and the nature of upstream competition. In this paper, conditions are found under which owners of a vertically integrated firm are better off breaking up into independent firms. This result may explain AT&T's recent spinoff of Lucent Technologies. Further results suggest that a prohibition on information transfers, such as that often proposed by the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice as a precursor to approving vertical mergers, may actually reduce expected consumer surplus and expected social welfare.     

Self-service payoff

Adopting self-service check-in processes allows a hospital to simplify the workflow for billing and administrative staff and boost financial performance. Implementing self-service technology: Eliminates need for staff to scan patient data provided on paper registration forms. Facilitates seamless and secure flow of patient data throughout the care process. Creates shorter lines and reduced wait times for patients. Enables providers to collect payments quicker.     

Long-term relationship between political behavior and stock market return: new evidence from quantile regression

The stock market is an extremely sensitive and comprehensive indicator of the fluctuating political climate as well as investor confidence. Therefore, in an era of fierce media competition, the long-term influence of political behaviors on the Taiwan stock market is an important issue. However, the traditional regression model can only describe the “average” influence of variables on rate of return rather than completely describe conditional distribution as in quantile regression, which also analyzes correlations between stock return and the congressional effect.     

Early warning signals using AVaRs of infinitely divisible GARCH models — evidence from stock index markets

Classical time series models have failed to properly assess the risks that are associated with large adverse stock price behaviour. This article contributes to autoregressive moving average model–GARCH (ARMA–GARCH) models with standard infinitely divisible innovations and assesses the performance of these models by comparing them with other time series models that have normal innovation. We discuss the limitations of value at risk (VaR) and aim to develop early warning signal models using average value at risk (AVaRs) based on the ARMA–GARCH model with standard infinitely divisible innovations. Empirical results for the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, the England Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index and the Japan Nikkei 225 Index reveal that estimating AVaRs for the ARMA–GARCH model with standard infinitely divisible innovations offers an improvement over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during periods of distress in financial markets and provides a suitable early warning signal in both extreme events and highly volatile markets.     

Behavioural economics: Classical and modern

Abstract

In this paper, the origins and development of behavioural economics, beginning with the pioneering works of Herbert Simon and Ward Edwards, are traced and (critically) discussed. Two kinds of behavioural economics – classical and modern – are attributed, respectively, to the two pioneers. The mathematical foundations of classical behavioural economics are identified, largely, to be in the theory of computation and computational complexity; the mathematical basis for modern behavioural economics is claimed to be a notion of subjective probability. Individually rational economic theories of behaviour, with attempts to broaden – and deepen – the notion of rationality, challenging its orthodox variants, were decisively influenced by these two mathematical underpinnings.     

A MODIFIED METHOD FOR INFERRING THE EFFECTIVE BID-ASK SPREAD FROM SECURITY RETURNS

This paper presents a modified method for inferring the effective bid-ask spread from security returns in an eMicient market. The Modified Method removes from security returns the systematic effect of market movements and makes use of the equivalence properties of the moving average process and serial covariance function. The Modified Method is tested with the CRSP daily, weekly, and monthly returns data. The results show that the spread estimates are non-negative and sample time-interval independent. The results are compared with those of Roll (1984) and Amihud and Mendelson (1986).