Mean and volatility dynamics of Indian rupee/US dollar exchange rate series: an empirical investigation

The paper is concerned with time series modelling of foreign exchange rate of an important emerging economy, viz., India, with due consideration to possible sources of misspecification of the conditional mean like serial correlation, parameter instability, omitted time series variables and nonlinear dependences. Since structural change is pervasive in economic time series relationships, the paper first studies this aspect of the exchange rate series in detail and finds the existence of four structural breaks. Accordingly, the entire sample period is divided into five sub-periods of stable parameters each, and then the appropriate mean specification for each of these sub-periods is determined by incorporating functions of recursive residuals. Thereafter, the GARCH and EGARCH models are considered to capture the volatility contained in the data. The estimated models thus obtained suggest that return on Indian exchange rate series is marked by instabilities and that the appropriate volatility model is EGARCH. Further, out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model has been studied by standard forecasting criteria, and then compared with that of an AR model only to find that the findings are quite favorable for the former.      

Procedural fairness in lotteries assigning initial roles in a dynamic setting

We extend the study of procedural fairness in three new directions. Firstly, we focus on lotteries determining the initial roles in a two-person game. One of the roles carries a potential advantage over the other. All the experimental literature has thus far focused on lotteries determining the final payoffs of a game. Secondly, we modify procedural fairness in a dynamic—i.e. over several repetitions of a game—as well as in a static—i.e. within a single game-sense. Thirdly, we analyse whether assigning individuals a minimal chance of achieving an advantaged position is enough to make them willing to accept substantially more inequality. We find that procedural fairness matters under all of these accounts. Individuals clearly respond to the degree of fairness in assigning initial roles, appraise contexts that are dynamically fair more positively than contexts that are not, and are generally more willing to accept unequal outcomes when they are granted a minimal opportunity to acquire the advantaged position. Unexpectedly, granting full equality of opportunity does not lead to the highest efficiency.     

Willingness to Pay for Pesticide Free Fruits: Evidence from Pakistan

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes factors influencing consumption decision of pesticide free fruits (PFF) and estimates the willingness to pay (WTP) price premium for PFF in Pakistan. A contingent valuation survey of 200 households was conducted using face to face interview and payment card method. Results suggested that 93.5% respondents were WTP higher prices for PFF. Remarkably, around 35% respondents were WTP 16–20% higher prices and 24% respondents were WTP 6–10% higher prices for PFF than the existed conventional price. In addition, our ordered logit regression suggests that demographic and socio-economic variables such as age, education, income, household’s size and perception about health benefits are significantly associated with higher WTP for PFF.     

Does capital and financing structure have any relevance to the performance of microfinance institutions?

This paper aims to explore the impact of capital and financing structure on the performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs) from an agency theoretic standpoint. GMM and IV estimations with instruments have been performed using a panel dataset of 782 MFIs in 92 countries for the period 2000–2007. Results confirm the agency theoretic claim that an increase in leverage raises profit-efficiency in MFIs. The study also finds that cost efficiency deteriorates with decreasing leverage. Likewise, the negative significant impact of leverage on depth of outreach can also be explained. However, the study finds that capital structure does not have any noticeable impact on breadth of outreach and neither is it significantly related with women’s participation as loan clients.     

Trade Reform and Informal Wages

When trade reform contracts protected formal sectors in developing countries and the formal workers move to the informal sector for employment, does that reduce informal wages? Using a 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson (HOS) structure with formal–informal production organization for the same commodity, we show that a tariff cut in the import‐competing sector increases both informal wage and employment under very reasonable assumptions. An increase in the price of the export commodity will also increase informal wages, although aggregate informal employment unambiguously falls even if the informal export sector is labor intensive. Furthermore, the formal–informal segmentation of each sector opens up an interesting, hitherto unexplored, possibility that the informal export sector may contract despite a price increase in this sector. Change in the overall size of the export sector is also ambiguous and conditional on the relative strengths of changes in these two segments.     

A Smart Card Based Internet Micropayment Infrastructure: Technical Development and User Adoption

As online shopping services proliferate, the need for a secure and convenient payment infrastructure becomes critical. While credit card payment has become common for online purchases, a payment solution has not yet been developed that can be used to support transactions involving a monetary value in the range of a few dollars or even cents. In this study, the authors report their experience in developing a smart card based micropayment infrastructure in collaboration with a major bank. The infrastructure makes use of Mondex, a cash card standard adopted by major financial institutions worldwide. The infrastructure provides a platform to support online transfer of Mondex value over the Internet. Unlike other cash card products, Mondex is the only standard that can support card-to-card transfer without a mediating party. The transactions are immediate and anonymous. This article outlines the technical approach used in the development of the infrastructure and presents a behavioral adoption model to identify and assess factors that may affect its adoption. The findings indicate that the use of the adoption model in the early stages of product development can provide valuable insights to a development team. Theoretical contributions and practical implications specific to the Mondex Internet micropayment infrastructure are also discussed.     

The impact of demographic change on tax revenue

This paper stimulates the impact of demographic change on direct tax revenue for the Netherlands using extensive survey data and population projections. Projected demographic development in the Netherlands fits in well with the OECD mainstream. The analysis thus has a more general relevance. The simulations indicate a 27 percent rise in tax revenue until 2010 because of population growth and a relatively older labor force. After 2030, revenue falls as a consequence of a declining population and a rapidly rising share of the elderly. The authors also simulated a variant in which labor-force participation rates are set on the substantially higher OECD average. In this case, the increase in tax revenue almost doubles as compared to the base variant.     

Inventory of differential items selling from two shops under a single management with periodically increasing demand over a finite time-horizon

Inventories of differential items including the defective ones purchased/produced in a lot and sold from two shops (primary and secondary shops) under a single management are considered here over a finite time-horizon. A primary shop receives the differential units in a lot but sells only the non-defective ones whose demand periodically increases with time and decreases during the shortage period in such a way that it comes back to the initial value at the beginning of the next cycle. Hence in this shop, shortages are allowed and fully backlogged. Moreover, at the beginning of the next cycle, the retailer purchases purely non-defective units at a higher price to meet up the shortage amount along with the usual lot of differential units for regular sale. The defective units identified at the time of selling at the primary shop are continuously transferred to the adjacent secondary shop from which the defective ones are sold at a reduced price after some rework. Normally, the price of a defective item is fixed depending upon the quantum of its defect and people go for these items if they are cheap. Hence, demand for these units is dependent on the selling price, which is again inversely proportional to the rate of defectiveness. There may be five scenarios for dealing with defective units depending upon the coincidence of the time periods at two shops. For all scenarios, problems have been mathematically formulated and solved by the use of both parametric study and a gradient-based non-linear optimisation method. The models are illustrated with the help of numerical examples.     

Predicting the antecedents of consumers' intention toward purchase of mutual funds: A hybrid PLS-SEM-neural network approach

The current study intends to identify the behavioural antecedents of investors' attitude and investment intention toward mutual funds using a robust SEM-ANN approach. It focuses on novel factors in the purview of the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing digitalization and social media usage. The research outcome indicates that attitude (ATB), awareness (AW) and investment decision involvement (IDI) have a significant positive relation with investment intention (BI). In contrast, perceived barrier (PBR) negatively relates to investment intention. Herd behaviour (HB) and social media influence (SMI) do not influence investment intention toward mutual funds. Moreover, all the tested predictors share direct relation with the attitude toward mutual fund investment, barring perceived risk (PR), which has an inverse relationship. As per the outcome of ANN sensitivity analysis, attitude is the most crucial determinant of investment intention. It is followed by awareness (AW), perceived barriers (PBR) and investment decision involvement (IDI). Among the significant determinants of attitude, self-efficacy (SE) is the most important determinant, followed by perceived usefulness (PU), perceived emergency (PEMER), subjective norms (SN) and perceived risk (PR).