Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?

Most extant work on prediction of banking crises has utilised global samples, which are in turn dominated by observations from middle-income countries, and rely on a single estimator. However, economic and financial structures as well as the pattern of shocks may differ substantially across regions, while a range of specifications is desirable to check robustness. Accordingly, in this paper we test the implicit pooling assumption in earlier multivariate work on Early Warning Systems using both logit and binary recursive tree specifications separately for crises in Asia and Latin America, as well as the pooled sample. Results suggest markedly different crisis determinants across regions, implying global samples are inappropriate.     

Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework

This paper presents a macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub‐Saharan Africa. At the heart of our framework is a macro model which captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure and health), the supply side and poverty. The model is then linked through cross‐country regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in foreign aid to Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block for Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current ‘Poverty Reduction’ Strategy Papers.     

近岸装置实施以风险为基础的综合检查（RBI）

企业在进行管理安全和风险时,以风险为基础的方法用于管理检查和维修工作是最近十年出现的一种优化资产费用的工具。这个较先进的量化方法有可能预知装置风险程度的检查结果,并且有助于开发优化的检查计划。这些方法,由于综合软件解决方法的开发,现在已经开始变得成熟。综合软件解决方法能够与设备数据库交换信息,能够管理检查计划和维修计划的实施,以及永久保持资产和检查的数据。 本文介绍中东地区对近岸装置实施这种综合RBI和检查系统的情况。根据详细的RBI分析和过去的检查记录,对所选择的设备进行现场无损检测技术（NDT）的检测。资产数据、检查记录和文档集中保存在计算机化的系统中。该系统有能力存储和审查各种类型的文档和图样。这个系统还可能生成和监测检查和维修工作单,并且能够与其他企业系统进行交流。知识数据库对全部资产的活动很有用处。与MS Exel输入输出功能进行数据交换也很方便。     

Two estimators of the long-run variance: Beyond short memory

This paper deals with the estimation of the long-run variance of a stationary sequence. We extend the usual Bartlett-kernel heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimator to deal with long memory and antipersistence. We then derive asymptotic expansions for this estimator and the memory and autocorrelation consistent (MAC) estimator introduced by Robinson [Robinson, P. M., 2005. Robust covariance matrix estimation: HAC estimates with long memory/antipersistence correction. Econometric Theory 21, 171–180]. We offer a theoretical explanation for the sensitivity of HAC to the bandwidth choice, a feature which has been observed in the special case of short memory. Using these analytical results, we determine the MSE-optimal bandwidth rates for each estimator. We analyze by simulations the finite-sample performance of HAC and MAC estimators, and the coverage probabilities for the studentized sample mean, giving practical recommendations for the choice of bandwidths.     

Intervention analysis of the safety effects of a legislation targeting excessive speeding in Canada

Excessive speeding is a major traffic safety concern consequently, numerous countermeasures have been considered to mitigate this problem. Excessive speeding, street racing and stunt driving activities subject all road users to extreme risk. To address this problem, three Canadian provinces introduced severe sanctions against drivers who exceed speed limits by high margins. Under the laws offenders were subject to immediate license suspension and vehicle impoundment. In this paper, intervention analysis of the collision data from the three provinces was conducted to identify the safety effects of the legislation. The analysis aims to identify changes in the time series behaviour of collision data after the adoption of the law. The changes were assessed for statistical significance, and the magnitude of the change was quantified. In general, the paper showed that the legislative changes were associated with drops in province-wide fatal collisions substantiating the safety benefits of introducing such legislation against excessive speeders.     

Perceptions of predictive testing for those at risk of developing a chronic inflammatory disease: a meta-synthesis of qualitative studies*

Background: The availability of tests to predict the risk of developing chronic diseases is increasing. The identification of individuals at high risk of disease can trigger early intervention to reduce the risk of disease and its severity. In order for predictive tests to be accepted and used by those at risk, there is a need to understand people’s perceptions of predictive testing. Method: A meta-synthesis of qualitative research that explored patient and public perceptions of predictive testing for chronic inflammatory diseases was conducted. Studies were coded by researchers and patient research partners, and then organised into common themes associated with the acceptability or use of predictive testing. Results: Perceived barriers to predictive testing were identified, including a concern about a lack of confidentiality around the use of risk information; a lack of motivation for change; poor communication of information; and a possible impact on emotional well-being. In order to reduce these barriers, the literature shows that a patient-centred approach is required at each stage of the testing process. This includes the consideration of individual needs, such as accessibility and building motivation for change; readily available and easy to understand pre and post-test information; support for patients on how to deal with the implications of their results; and the development of condition specific lifestyle intervention programmes to facilitate sustainable lifestyle changes. Conclusion: Patients and members of the public had some concerns about predictive testing; however, a number of strategies to reduce barriers and increase acceptability are available. Further research is required to inform the development of a resource that supports the individual to make an informed decision about whether to engage in a predictive test, what test results mean, and how to access post-test support.     

An Analysis of Tourism Trends in Mauritius 1979 to 1998

A longitudinal analysis of tourism trends in Mauritius is conducted using published statistics and reports compiled by the Government of Mauritius. A number of trend indicators and ratios are derived and plotted as time series data from 1979 to 1998. Interesting trends emerge that may be of value to other Indian Ocean Island tourism agencies and analysts. The ratios calculated are as follows: number of nights spent per tourist, discounted earnings per tourist, discounted earnings per night, contribution to GDP per tourism earnings, discounted contribution to GDP per tourist, percentage of nights spent in hotels, nights spent per tourist in hotels and nights spent per tourist in informal accommodation, average expenditure per tourist accommodated in hotels and average expenditure per tourist accommodated in informal accommodation (private bungalows, boarding/guest houses and homes of friends/relatives).

The main findings are that the continued success of tourism in Mauritius rests significantly on tourists accommodated in the informal accommodation sector and that tourist spending in real terms in Mauritius has declined from 1990 to 1997.     

Predicament of identity in Iran: a qualitative meta-analysis of theoretical and empirical studies on identity

Identity is regarded as a theoretical and practical problematic issue constituting a large range of literature in social planning, political activities and cultural policy-making in the last decades. Thus, this study is to Meta-analyze three sorts of studies on identity in a distinctive perspective. These are: universal theories of identity, theoretical studies of identity in Iran and research studies on Iranian identity in Iranian academic sphere. The findings demonstrate that the sociological theories are more effective to discuss identity than other scientific fields. While the theoretical studies focused mainly on national level of identity, the empirical ones highlighted the sub-nation and global dimensions of identity. Most of studied researches employed constructivist approach. According to literature review of identity studies in Iran, the main sources of identity are the Persian language, Shiite religion, Islam, Oriental Culture, Oriental Mysticism, Modernity and National History. Generally, the sources of identity are diverse. The results indicate that the constitution of Iranian identity portrays a hybrid and synthetic texture in all levels.