MONTHLY GDP FORECASTING USING BRIDGE MODELS: APPLICATION FOR THE FRENCH ECONOMY

This paper presents a model to predict French gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate. The model is designed to be used on a monthly basis by integrating monthly economic information through bridge models, for both supply and demand sides, allowing thus economic interpretations. For each GDP component, bridge equations are specified by using a general‐to‐specific approach implemented in an automated way by Hoover and Perez and improved by Krolzig and Hendry. This approach allows to select explanatory variables among a large data set of hard and soft data. A rolling forecast study is carried out to assess the forecasting performance in the prediction of aggregated GDP, by taking publication lags into account in order to run pseudo real‐time forecasts. It turns out that the model outperforms benchmark models. The results show that changing the set of equations over the quarter is superior to keeping the same equations over time. In addition, GDP growth seems to be more precisely predicted from a supply‐side approach rather than a demand‐side approach.     

Megamarketing expanded by neo-institutional theory

This work aims at extending the boundaries of marketing to address the process of emerging consumption practices. This point of view is in line with the concept of megamarketing introduced by Kotler (1986, Harvard Business Review, 64, 117–124) and with the assumption that consumption practices depend heavily on supra individual and institutional structures that can take a cognitive, normative and regulatory form. Drawing from the recent insights of institutional theory, we propose marketing strategies that companies can use to shape the institutional structure underlying new consumptions practices. We extend the concept of megamarketing by collating it with that of institutional work, and thus identify the cognitive, symbolic, cultural and legal levers used by firms to shape the institutional conditions needed for consumption.     

The mediation effects of consumers’ need recognition and pre-purchase evaluation in consumers’ decision-making on purchasing safe street food: The case in Nakhon Si Thammarat,Thailand

Nakhon Si Thammarat province is one of the largest cities in Thailand and offers various types of street foods in the city. However, the number of street vendors that pass food safety certification is very low. Nevertheless, there are many consumers who still purchase street food because of their lifestyle who are exposed to food safety risks. Therefore, this research aims to evaluate how consumers make their decisions about the safety of the street food. This study investigates the importance of the need recognition and pre-purchase evaluation stages in consumers’ decision-making in relation to their purchasing of safe street food. The results from the structural equation modeling analysis found that, at 95%, the confidential need recognition would act as a partial mediator between consumers’ motivation → pre-purchase evaluation on purchasing safe food and consumers’ food safety knowledge → pre-purchase evaluation. In turn, pre-purchase evaluation would act as a full mediator between consumers’ motivation and safe street food purchasing. The findings signify that the stages of need recognition and pre-purchase evaluation in the decision-making process are important in order to reduce consumers' food risk while purchasing street food. Therefore, encouraging consumers to recognize the importance of purchasing safe food and convincing them to be concerned when selecting food is necessary to prevent consumers from unsafe food consumption.     

Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy: Dynamic Panel Data Study of Malaysia

This paper aims to investigate the relevance of bank-lending channel (BLC) of monetary policy in a small-open economy, i.e. Malaysia by using disaggregated bank-level data. A dynamic panel data method namely generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure has been used in estimating the dynamic of banks' loan supply function. The empirical evidence revealed that the banks' loan supply is significantly and negatively influenced by monetary policy shocks, and therefore has supported the existence of BLC in Malaysia. Several bank-characteristics variables namely bank liquidity and bank capitalization (capital adequacy ratio) are also statistically significant in influencing the banks' loan supply.     

International Marketing Channels for Brazilian Beef: Comparison between Russia and the United Kingdom

This article compares the Russian and British marketing channels for Brazilian beef distribution. The results show that the framework hereby developed aids understanding of the differences and the reasons for the organizational form of these channels. The findings also show that there is a difference in the way these channels are organized to seek efficiency in their business transactions. Institutional environment attributes are able to influence the distinction between channels in terms of transaction efficiency.     

Impact of employees’ perceived threat of market competition on unethical marketing and selling practices: Moral disengagement and ethical leadership

This study draws on the social cognitive theory to examine the effect of perceived market competition on employees’ unethical marketing and selling practices. The boundary conditions associated with this relationship were examined, and we posit that perceived market competition is related to unethical marketing and selling practices through the mediating mechanism of moral disengagement. We further propose that ethical leadership moderates the relationship between the perceived threat of market competition, moral disengagement, and tendency toward unethical marketing and selling practices. We tested our hypotheses with a sample of 387 employees working in the banking sector in Pakistan. Our results suggest that moral disengagement had a full mediation effect between the perceived threat of market competition and tendency of employees toward unethical marketing and selling practices. Moreover, ethical leadership moderated the relationship between moral disengagement and the tendency of employees toward unethical marketing practices. The research findings indicate that when field employees encounter threat perceptions due to market competition, they have a propensity toward engaging in unethical marketing and selling practices when they can activate moral disengagement. This study also found that ethical leadership negatively moderates the relationship of moral disengagement with employees’ tendency toward unethical marketing and selling practices.     

The effectiveness of chief financial officer board membership in improving corporate investment efficiency

The key roles of the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) in firm operating performance, corporate strategic choices, and corporate governance have been increasingly emphasized in recent decades. In this study, we empirically investigate the relation between CFO board membership and corporate investment efficiency to determine whether CFO presence on the board reduces firms’ propensity to over- or underinvest. We find that CFO board membership is significantly associated with a decreased level of corporate over- and underinvestment. Further, the positive effects of CFO board membership on corporate investment efficiency are greater for firms with greater information asymmetries. Last but not least, we find that the improved investment efficiency experienced by firms with CFOs on their boards has a positive effect on the firms’ future performance. Overall, we find that CFO board membership is associated with improved investment efficiency and firms’ future profitability. By documenting the real business impact of CFO board membership on investment efficiency and firms’ future performance, we add bricks to the literature on board composition and how it influences firms’ strategic choices and performance. Our findings suggest that having CFOs on boards could benefit firms’ investment practices, which directly relate to corporate strategic performance.