POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Importers,Exporters and Multinationals: Exploring the Hierarchy of International Linkages

The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore two dimensions of the firm hierarchy of international market-specific linkages, using data on Swedish manufacturing firms from 1997 to 2007. First, we investigate the productivity ordering with respect to three international linkages; importing, exporting and investing abroad. Second, we explore whether differences in the productivity ordering across industries correlates with industry and country characteristics. Our findings support a general productivity hierarchy from importing to exporting and from exporting to investing abroad, as well as from a low to a high number of linkages (measuring the complexity of firms’ international linkages). However, an industry-by-industry examination shows that the hierarchical structure is only generally upheld when it comes to the number of international linkages, while the ordering of import, export and investment linkages does not exhibit the same regularity across industries. Extending the analysis, we find that the lack of a hierarchical structure is more likely in industries focusing on larger and less distant markets.     

Benefits of Cross‐sector Partnerships in Markets at the Base of the Pyramid

In this paper we analyze whether cross‐sector partnerships enable companies to respond to the specific conditions at the base of the pyramid (BOP). We develop three hypotheses in which we argue how cross‐sector partnerships support companies to face unfamiliar conditions in these markets. We test the developed hypotheses against the data of 103 companies operating in BOP‐markets. The results show that companies rely on organizations from the civil society sector in order to meet customer needs. Partners from the business sector are supportive when responding to restrictive market conditions. Institutional partnerships should be considered when companies aim at responding to the regulatory environment. We outline theoretical and managerial implications and reflect some limitations of the study. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

A Tutorial on Palm Distributions for Spatial Point Processes

This tutorial provides an introduction to Palm distributions for spatial point processes. Initially, in the context of finite point processes, we give an explicit definition of Palm distributions in terms of their density functions. Then we review Palm distributions in the general case. Finally, we discuss some examples of Palm distributions for specific models and some applications.     

COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - As symbolized by vacant office buildings, empty shopping malls and abandoned flats in metropolitan areas, the new coronavirus disease 2019 has severely...