Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care.     

A complete asymptotic series for the autocovariance function of a long memory process

An infinite-order asymptotic expansion is given for the autocovariance function of a general stationary long-memory process with memory parameter d∈(−1/2,1/2)$d\in (-1/2,1/2)$. The class of spectral densities considered includes as a special case the stationary and invertible ARFIMA(p,d,q$p,d,q$) model. The leading term of the expansion is of the order O(1/k^1−2d)$O(1/k^{1-2d})$, where k$k$ is the autocovariance order, consistent with the well known power law decay for such processes, and is shown to be accurate to an error of O(1/k^3−2d)$O(1/k^{3-2d})$. The derivation uses Erdélyi’s [Erdélyi, A., 1956. Asymptotic Expansions. Dover Publications, Inc, New York] expansion for Fourier-type integrals when there are critical points at the boundaries of the range of integration - here the frequencies {0,2π}$\{0,2\pi \}$. Numerical evaluations show that the expansion is accurate even for small k$k$ in cases where the autocovariance sequence decays monotonically, and in other cases for moderate to large k$k$. The approximations are easy to compute across a variety of parameter values and models.     

Greenwashing Revisited: In Search of a Typology and Accusation‐Based Definition Incorporating Legitimacy Strategies

Is greenwashing a concept describing companies using misleading communication or is it co‐constructed in the eye of the beholder? By discussing the literature, we find that existing definitions of greenwashing overemphasize the strategic intention to mislead and do not incorporate unjust allegations. Then, by combining signaling theory with legitimacy theory, we frame the communication process of the greenwashing accusation and the emergence of a negative narrative caused by the accusation and its effect on legitimacy. Hence, in this paper we argue that greenwashing epistemologically is constituted in the eye of the beholder , depending on an external accusation. Following this view, the greenwashing accusation is understood as a distortion factor altering the signal reliability of green messages. Based on our conceptual analysis, we provide a conceptual framework introducing a new typology of case‐based greenwashing (greenwashing , false greenwashing , potential greenwashing and no greenwashing ) and the effects of these types on corporate legitimacy. Finally, we propose a revised definition of greenwashing as co‐creation of an external accusation toward an organization with regard to presenting a misleading green message. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Credit Booms Gone Bust: Replication of Schularick and Taylor (AER 2012)

This paper replicates the results in Schularick and Taylor (American Economic Review 2012; 102 (2): 1029–1061; ST hereafter). Specifically, I replicate ST's results in the ‘narrow’ sense by reproducing their calculations in the open source econometrics package gretl. (Gretl is an acronym for Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time‐series Laboratory. It is available for Windows, Mac and Linux at www.gretl.sourceforge.net .) I also demonstrate the robustness of ST's findings to different estimation methods. I obtain qualitatively similar results to ST via Bayesian estimation of both static and dynamic panel probit models. Finally, I show that the marginal effects of credit growth on the probability of a financial crisis vary considerably across the countries in the dataset. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Military Shooter Video Games and the Ontopolitics of Derivative Wars and Arms Culture

The “military shooter” (MS) video game is the latest in a long line of video games that immerse the player in a fantasy world. Although the MS video game was once regarded as excessively violent, it has now become socially acceptable, as the virtues of military life have become incorporated in popular culture. That transition has taken place in part because the military has begun to work closely with the producers of MS video games, such as the “Call of Duty” series, to imagine and prepare for future military threats, both on virtual battlefields and on actual terrain. The increasing use of highly paid corporate mercenaries in actual war zones has also influenced game play by introducing players to the potential for large financial rewards by becoming experts in virtual combat. Thus, MS video games incorporate players not only into the technological domain of modern warfare but also into the economic domain of fighting war for profit. In the post 9/11 era, warfare has increasingly become a strategy of risk management, in which the battlefield is less a physical space than a semiotic landscape of conflicting loyalties and financial incentives. The MS shooter game is conditioning the soldiers of the future to fight in this shadowy world that lies between the virtual and the real. All of these changes have political ramifications. In the long run, constant exposure to these games is creating a subculture that is not only immersed in an armament culture but also increasingly allied with current patterns of geopolitical domination and subordination.     

Effects of limit order book information level on market stability metrics

Using an agent-based model of the limit order book, we explore how the levels of information available to participants, exchanges, and regulators can be used to improve our understanding of the stability and resiliency of a market. Ultimately, we want to know if electronic market data contains previously undetected information that could allow us to better assess market stability. Using data produced in the controlled environment of an agent-based model’s limit order book, we examine various resiliency indicators to determine their predictive capabilities. Most of the types of data created have traditionally been available either publicly or on a restricted basis to regulators and exchanges, but other types have never been collected. We confirmed our findings using actual order flow data with user identifications included from the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and New York Mercantile Exchange. Our findings strongly suggest that high-fidelity microstructure data in combination with price data can be used to define stability indicators capable of reliably signaling a high likelihood for an imminent flash crash event about one minute before it occurs.     

Franchisee leadership traits vs. manager leadership traits an exploratory study comparing hope, leadership, commitment and service quality delivery

In order to add to the understanding of the role of franchising in entrepreneurship and to help franchise systems improve efficiency, the constructs of organizational leadership, hope, organizational commitment, and service quality perceptions of franchised managers and franchisees are differentiated in the current study. For scholars and practitioners, the dynamic relationship between entrepreneurship, franchisees, and management is an important triangle which merits further investigation. While the results offered only that managers and franchisees differed statistically in service empathy, differences were noted across all areas which approached significance but was limited due to the small sample size. Implications for future research are discussed.     

OVERBIDDING AND HETEROGENEOUS BEHAVIOR IN CONTEST EXPERIMENTS: A COMMENT ON THE ENDOWMENT EFFECT

We revisit the meta-analysis of Sheremeta on overbidding in contest experiments and focus on the effect of endowment on overbidding. Sheremeta assumes, and finds evidence of, an increasing linear relationship between endowment and overbidding, Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) predicts an increasing concave relationship, while Baik and colleagues find an inverted U-shaped relationship in their analysis of a single experiment. We use the same data as in Sheremeta, but employ a different econometric model which leads to support for both QRE and the inverted U-shaped relationship. Following Baik and colleagues, we posit that the inverted-U relationship may be interpreted in terms of a wealth effect.