Developing Equity Release Markets: Risk Analysis for Reverse Mortgages and Home Reversions

Equity release products are sorely needed in an aging population with high levels of home ownership. There has been a growing literature analyzing risk components and capital adequacy of reverse mortgages in recent years. However, little research has been done on the risk analysis of other equity release products, such as home reversion contracts. This is partly due to the dominance of reverse mortgage products in equity release markets worldwide. In this article we compare cash flows and risk profiles from the provider's perspective for reverse mortgage and home reversion contracts. An at-home/in long-term care split termination model is employed to calculate termination rates, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to depict the joint dynamics of economic variables including interest rates, house prices, and rental yields. We derive stochastic discount factors from the no arbitrage condition and price the no negative equity guarantee in reverse mortgages and the lease for life agreement in the home reversion plan accordingly. We compare expected payoffs and assess riskiness of these two equity release products via commonly used risk measures: Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).     

Should Forecasters Use Real‐Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence

In this paper, we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real‐time or latest‐available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed‐frequency models and real‐time data to reassess the role of surveys and financial data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real‐time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when obtaining the optimal combination of soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the role of survey information.     

For how long do IMF forecasts of world economic growth stay up-to-date?

This study analyses the performance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook output forecasts for the world and for both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current year and the next year, we examine the durability of IMF forecasts, looking at how much time has to pass so that IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time data set for GDP and for indicators, we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts as soon as the publication of the IMF’s Outlook is only a few months old. In particular, there is an obvious gain using leading indicators from January to March for the forecast of the current year.     

Do Lower Caseloads Improve the Performance of Public Employment Services? New Evidence from German Employment Offices

The caseworker‐to‐clients ratio is an important, but understudied, policy parameter that affects both the quality and cost of public employment services that help job seekers find employment. We exploit a large‐scale pilot by Germany's employment agency, which hired 490 additional caseworkers in 14 of its 779 offices. We find that lowering caseloads caused a decrease in the rate and duration of local unemployment as well as a higher re‐employment rate. Disentangling the mechanisms that contributed to this improvement, we find that offices with lowered caseloads increased monitoring and imposed more sanctions but also intensified search efforts and registered additional vacancies.     

La brecha salarial de género al inicio de la vida activa. Análisis basado en datos de Alemania

Se investigan las diferencias salariales entre hombres y mujeres graduados universitarios al inicio de la vida activa en todos los percentiles de la distribución salarial. Tales diferencias se descomponen según el modelo de índice único de DiNardo, Fortin y Lemieux (1996) y Fortin y Lemieux (1998), analizando los efectos de la dotación, el precio y la función de rendimiento de competencias. Los salarios iniciales de los varones son más altos en todos los percentiles, con una brecha de magnitud variable. Los efectos de la dotación y el precio son favorables a los hombres. La diferencia en la función de rendimiento de competencias es ventajosa para las graduadas.     

Three ethical frames of reference: insights into Millennials' ethical judgements and intentions in the workplace

The paper investigates the ethical decisions of Millennials, who are not only part of an expanding cohort of the workforce, but also represent potential future managers with a growing influence on work practices and employment relationships. In the conceptual model, we propose that three ethical frames of reference, represented by perceived organisational ethics, perceived employee ethics and reflective moral attentiveness, antecede ethical judgements, which further influence the ethical intentions of Millennials. Using structural equation modelling, we test the model for three different business ethics scenarios: paying a consulting fee, dumping hazardous waste, and running an offensive advertising campaign. The findings confirm the link between ethical judgements and intentions across the board, while the influence of the ethical frames of reference varies among the scenarios. We propose that the differences in the predictive ability of the ethical frames of reference depend on the nature of the ethical issue, which holds important implications for today's managers in their attempts to encourage ethical behaviour of Millennial employees.     

Exploring consumer knowledge structures using associative network analysis

This paper offers a new perspective on consumer knowledge analysis that combines Human Associative Memory (HAM) models from cognitive psychology with network analytic approaches in order to gain deeper insights into consumers” mental representations, such as brand images. An illustrative case study compares the associative networks of a manufacturer brand with a retail brand and is used to demonstrate the application and interpretation of various network measures. Network analysis is conducted on three levels: Node‐level analysis yields insights about salient brand image components that can be affected through short‐term marketing activities. Group‐level analysis is concerned with brand image dimensions that characterize a brand and can be strategically influenced in the medium term. Finally, network‐level analysis examines the network structure as a whole, drawing parallels to brand imagery, which needs to be managed over the long term. Management implications are derived and suggestions for further research are provided. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Commodity currencies and commodity prices: modelling static and time-varying dependence

This article employs the copula approach to study the relationship between exchange rates and commodity prices for large commodity exporters. Using data for the nominal exchange rates of four commodity currencies (Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars, and Norwegian krone) against the US dollar and the relevant country-specific commodity price indices, constructed on a daily basis, we find (1) a positive dependence between the values of commodity currencies and commodity indices, i.e. a commodity index increases when a respective currency appreciates and provides several explanations for this finding; (2) no major asymmetries in the tail dependence for most pairs of exchange rates and commodity indices and (3) a pronounced increase in the time-varying tail dependence following the global financial crisis.