Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises

We characterize the values of government debt and the debt's maturitystructure under which financial crises brought on by a loss of confidence inthe government can arise within a dynamic, stochastic general equilibriummodel. We also characterize the optimal policy response of the government tothe threat of such a crisis. We show that when the country's fundamentalsplace it inside the crisis zone, the government may be motivated to reduceits debt and exit the crisis zone because this leads to an economic boom anda reduction in the interest rate on the government's debt. We show thatthis reduction can be gradual if debt is high or the probability of a crisisis low. We also show that, while lengthening the maturity of the debt canshrink the crisis zone, credibility-inducing policies can have perverseeffects.     

Computing all of the equilibria of economies with two factors of production

In general, no method to find all the equilibria of an economy is known that does not involve an exhaustive search. In this paper we argue that for an economy with a generalized input– output structure and two factors of production such a search is feasible, and indeed can be performed graphically. After presenting a search procedure, we apply it to an example with multiple equilibria. It is hoped that study of the simple two factor model will provide insight into the question of non-uniqueness in more general models.     

Trade,growth, and convergence in a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model

In models in which convergence in income levels across closed countries is driven by faster accumulation of a productive factor in the poorer countries, opening these countries to trade can stop convergence and even cause divergence. We make this point using a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model—a combination of a static two-good, two-factor Heckscher–Ohlin trade model and a two-sector growth model—with infinitely lived consumers where international borrowing and lending are not permitted. We obtain two main results: First, countries that differ only in their initial endowments of capital per worker may converge or diverge in income levels over time, depending on the elasticity of substitution between traded goods. Divergence can occur for parameter values that would imply convergence in a world of closed economies and vice versa. Second, factor price equalization in a given period does not imply factor price equalization in future periods.     

Private Equity vs. PLC Boards in the U.K.: A Comparison of Practices and Effectiveness

The consistently higher returns generated by the most successful private equity firms have been attributed in part to their willingness to take on high levels of debt and their ability to exit from their investments at attractive multiples. But recent research suggests that the largest contributor to the superior performance of the best PE firms has been their ability to improve the operating performance of the companies they buy. And as the authors of this article argue, a key source of such improvements are fundamental differences in the way boards function in the public and private realm.
Using in-depth interviews with 20 executives who have served on both PE and plc boards of relatively large U.K. companies, the authors provide a number of suggestive insights into such differences:
Perhaps the most visible of these differences is the "single-minded" focus of PE boards on "value creation," as contrasted with the focus of plc boards on issues of "governance" and "compliance."
Whereas PE boards view their role as "leading" the strategy of the firm and overseeing its execution by top management, plc boards are described as "monitoring" or "accompanying" strategies that are proposed and executed by management.
Whereas PE boards report near-complete alignment of objectives between executive and non-executive directors, plc boards are described as having multiple commitments to and priorities that are divided among multiple stakeholders.
Finally, whereas PE board members undergo an intensive "due diligence" process when joining boards, have frequent ongoing contacts with management, and focus heavily on the cash-generating capacity of the business, initiations of plc board members are much more formal and ceremonial, their dealings with operating management are few and limited, and the information provided them has an "accounting" orientation and covers a broad range of subjects and corporate "responsibilities."     

Environmental Decision Making and DDT Production at Montrose Chemical Corporation of California

In this article, we examine the decisions made by corporateexecutives and government officials that led to the dischargewith minimal treatment of hundreds of metric tons of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane(DDT) waste into the Pacific Ocean over several decades. AfterWorld War II, Montrose Chemical Corporation of California'sLos Angeles plant began making the new wonder pesticide, andMontrose executives worked with local officials to develop awaste disposal system that funneled the plant's process wastesinto the county sewer system and ultimately into the ocean.Faced with increasing scientific concern about pesticides anda changed political climate in the 1960s, Montrose vigorouslydefended DDT and relied increasingly on exports to remain profitable.Years after the plant closed, a federal suit forced Montroseand related companies to pay the costs of environmental cleanup.     

On characterizing equilibria of economies with externalities and taxes as solutions to optimization problems

Summary We characterize equilibria of general equilibrium models with externalities and taxes as solutions to optimization problems. This characterization is similar to Negishi's characterization of equilibria of economies without externalities or taxes as solutions to social planning problems. It is often useful for computing equilibria or deriving their properties. Frequently, however, finding the optimization problem that a particular equilibrium solves is difficult. This is especially true in economies with multiple equilibria. In a dynamic economy with externalities or taxes there may be a robust continuum of equilibria even if there is a representative consumer. This indeterminacy of equilibria is closely related to that in overlapping generations economies.An earlier version of this paper, entitled Externalities and Taxes in General Equilibrium, was presented at the North American meetings of the Econometric Society, June 1988, at the University of Minnesota. We are grateful to David Backus, Kenneth Judd, Patrick Kehoe, and Rodolfo Manuelli for helpful conversations. National Science Foundation grants SES 86-18325 and SES 87-08616 provided financial support.The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.     

Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent RealExchange Rates?

The central puzzle in international business cycles is that fluctuations in real exchange rates are volatile and persistent. We quantify the popular story for real exchange rate fluctuations: they are generated by monetary shocks interacting with sticky goods prices. If prices are held fixed for at least one year, risk aversion is high, and preferences are separable in leisure, then real exchange rates generated by the model are as volatile as in the data and quite persistent, but less so than in the data. The main discrepancy between the model and the data, the consumption–real exchange rate anomaly , is that the model generates a high correlation between real exchange rates and the ratio of consumption across countries, while the data show no clear pattern between these variables.     

Drunk, drowsy, doped: skiers' and snowboarders' injury risk perceptions regarding alcohol, fatigue and recreational drug use

The objective was to investigate perceptions of snowfield resort visitors about injury risk regarding alcohol, fatigue and recreational drug use. Visitors to a resort village in a large Australian snowfield region completed a brief survey about fatigue, alcohol and recreational drug use and injury risk perception. Participants stated their ability to ski or snowboard and drive safely following a lack of sleep, alcohol and recreational drug use. Intoxicated snowfield resort visitors were compared with non-intoxicated visitors. Safety beliefs across snow sport and transport were compared. Participants reported that they generally slept less than usual and 30% reported both drinking alcohol and using drugs more than usual while visiting the snowfields. Participants perceived driving as a greater injury risk than skiing/snowboarding (p < 0.001). Fatigue was perceived as a relatively weak injury risk factor, particularly whilst skiing and snowboarding. Awareness needs to be raised among snowfield resort visitors about the contribution of alcohol, fatigue and recreational drug use to snow sport and transport-related injury risk.