Heterogeneous beliefs and the effect of replicatable options on asset prices

We present two ways in which trading in a replicatable optioncan affect the price process of the underlying asset. In thefirst situation, trading an option that each investor viewsas pay off redundant breaks a non-fully revealing equilibriumthat exists when the option market is absent. The second situationinvolves a market that is dynamically complete without options,but in which introducing an option market allows self-confirmingconjectures of additional uncertainty about the future priceof the underlying asset. Heterogeneous beliefs play importantthough different roles in both situations.     

THE VARIABILITY OF NET FARM INCOME*

The movements in, and variability of, net farm income over time have considerable impact on the agricultural sector. But variability of income is quite dificult to measure in a satisfactory and objective way. In this note, a previous study (by R. B. Jones) of the variability of net farm income is sunimarised and discussed. Following this, a different approach, involving the use of various time series, is considered. Although the period covered differs from that used by R. B. Jones, his general conclusions remain unaltered. However, the analysis does suggest a definite rise in relative variability since 1963–4. It is felt that the alternative method used has some advantages over the other methods, especially in enabling tests of significance to be used to assess if observed changes are significant, and if the basic underlying assumptions are tenable.     

The Coastal Construction Control Line: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

This paper reports on a cost-benefit study of the Florida Coastal Construction Control Line (CCCL) in Martin County, Florida. The study compared the costs of implementing and maintaining the line with the value of the potential benefits resulting from (1) storm damage reduction and (2) increased open space. A systems model of development patterns was designed to project forward the historic development patterns along the beach which were compared with the patterns that have occurred subsequent to implementing the CCCL. The analysis showed the CCCL not to be cost effective in the area studied.     

The Japanese example in South West Birmingham

This article considers the relationship between the Rover Group and Honda, and examines the wide-ranging changes the company is making, particularly in the area of employee involvement.