Directors' remuneration and the DTI review of company law

This article considers how directors' remuneration should be set. It does so in both general terms and in the light of the DTI (1999) paper entitled Directors' Remuneration. A Consultative Document . The DTI document forms part of a general review of company law that is being undertaken by the Department of Trade and Industry. This article explores the extent to which these government-directed developments can be seen as an extension of the Cadbury, Greenbury and Hampel Reports and the extent to which self-regulation as opposed to government regulation looks set to dominate this area.     

Reducing reporting risk: Designating foreign currency forward contracts as cash flow hedges

We present an example that compares the effects on earnings of designating a foreign currency forward contract as either a cash-flow or fair-value hedge of a foreign currency denominated receivable. Entities engaging in exchange transactions not denominated in their functional currency frequently enter into foreign currency forward contracts in order to mitigate their foreign exchange rate risk exposure. The aggregate effect on earnings of the transaction gain or loss on the foreign currency receivable and the gain or loss on the forward contract is known on the date the forward contract is initiated. The effect on each period’s earnings during the term of a forward contract designated as a cash-flow hedge is also known on the date the contract is initiated; whereas the effect on each periods’ earnings from a fair-value hedge cannot be determined until the respective balance sheet dates. Therefore, designating forward contracts as cash-flow hedges may suppress volatility in reported earnings compared to designating forward contracts as fair-value hedges. In addition, the reporting risk (the amount of uncertainty surrounding the pending measure of an item to be reported in the financial statements) is lower when a forward contract is designated as a cash-flow hedge relative to designating it as a fair-value hedge. This suggests foreign currency forward contracts designated as cash-flow hedges are more consistent with the purpose of hedge accounting: to mitigate the effects on earnings of applying different measurement criteria for the hedge and the hedged item.     

Cultural New Year Holidays and Stock Returns around the World

Using data from 11 major international markets that celebrate six cultural New Year holidays that do not occur on January 1, we find that stock markets tend to outperform in days surrounding a cultural New Year. After controlling for firm characteristics, an average stock earns 2.5% higher abnormal returns across all markets in the month of a cultural New Year relative to other months of the year. Further evidence suggests that positive holiday moods, in conjunction with cash infusions prior to a cultural New Year, produce elevated stock prices, particularly among those stocks most preferred and traded by individual investors.     

Examining the Information Content of Residuals from Hedonic and Spatial Models Using Trees and Forests

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Machine learning algorithms such as neural nets, support vector machines, and tree-based techniques (classification and regression trees) have...     

Using Housing Futures in Mortgage Research

Expectations of housing prices play an important role in real estate research. Despite their importance, obtaining a reasonable proxy for such expectations is a challenge. The existing literature on mortgage research either does not include housing expectation proxies in empirical models, or uses “backward-looking” proxies such as past housing appreciation or time series forecasts based on past housing appreciation. This paper proposes to use the transaction prices of Case-Shiller housing futures as an alternative “forward-looking” proxy. As an example, we compare the performances of four different expectation proxies in explaining mortgage default behavior. The loan level analysis shows that the futures based expectation proxy outperforms other proxies by having the highest regression model fit and being the only proxy that shows a significant negative effect on mortgage default behavior, as theory suggests. Out of sample predictions also show that futures have better prediction accuracy than other proxies. In addition, the paper shows that futures contain additional information that is not present in the backward-looking proxies.     

Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability

Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option-to-stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.     

Relative performance of the grid, nearest neighbor, and OLS estimators

This article provides various paradigms for the grid estimator, the most useful being a representation of the grid estimator as a combination of the nonparametric nearest neighbor estimator and a parametric estimator. Hence, the grid estimator falls into the class of semiparametric estimators. The article used this representation to derive the relative efficiency of the nearest neighbor, grid, and OLS estimators. Under statistically perfect conditions, the OLS estimator dominated the grid estimator, which in turn dominated the nearest neighbor estimator. A Monte Carlo experiment verified the theoretical results. A second Monte Carlo experiment showed the fragility of the OLS superiority to misspecification. The results cast light upon appraisal practice.     

The British and American Rules: an Experimental Examination of Pre-trial Bargaining in the Shadowof the Law

A commonly held view is that the frequency and value of pre-trial settlements in civil disputes are greatly influenced by the cost allocation regime that is in place if the case goes to trial. There is a large and growing theoretical literature on this subject but almost no empirical evidence. This is due simply to the scarcity of relevant data owing to the confidentiality generally associated with such matters. However, the area is an ideal one to analyse experimentally. In this paper we consider the effect of the British and American rules for cost allocation using such an experimental methodology. We find that the two rules produce no difference in the frequency of pre-trial settlements but that the British rule produces higher settlements (pro-pursuer) if the probability of the pursuer winning is large.