Money growth,uncertainty and macroeconomic activity: a multivariate GARCH analysis

The impact uncertainty has on money growth has received much attention in recent years and is an issue of critical importance to central banks, particularly for those, such as the European Central Bank (ECB), which place a strong emphasis on monetary analysis in monetary policy formulation. Some recent papers examining this issue use ad hoc estimates and measure variability rather than uncertainty. We employ a multivariate GARCH model, which measures uncertainty by the conditional variance of the data series, to investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary uncertainty Granger-cause changes in real money. The estimated model also allows us to investigate how monetary uncertainty impacts economic activity. We find that macroeconomic uncertainty impacts positively on US real M2 growth over a two-year horizon but that monetary uncertainty does not cause changes in real M2. Instead, our results indicate that real money growth causes monetary uncertainty. Monetary uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on real economic activity and on macroeconomic uncertainty. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results and the methodological approach used for institutions such as the ECB that give monetary analysis a prominent role in their monetary policy strategy.     

An Ontological Turn in Categories Research: From Standards of Legitimacy to Evidence of Actuality

In this Counterpoint to Durand and Paolella, we argue that prior work on categories has neglected processes of category emergence and dissolution. In response, we call for studies of categories that focus on how they emerge and fall out of use and on what they come to mean. We call this an ontological turn in categories research because systems of categorization and their associated meanings capture and reflect what societies view as social realities, or ontologies. As a guide to this broad topic, we develop a framework that relates the effects of categories to the familiarity of (1) occasions and motivations for their usage and (2) meanings and ontologies they carry, and we use this framework to elaborate two paths by which previously unfamiliar categories become accepted as elements of common knowledge. These paths jointly inform the recognition front of the emergence question, an understudied problem in organization studies. Finally, we outline two methodologies – set theoretic analysis and network‐based analysis – that offer particular promise for analysing processes of category emergence and dissolution.     

Book Review

Mark H. Maier. The Data Game: Controversies in Social Science Statistics, 3rd ed. Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe, 1999. 332 pp.     

Renewable resource management with environmental prediction: the importance of structural specification

Environmental variability can substantially influence renewable resource growth, and as the ability to forecast environmental conditions improves, opportunities for adaptive management emerge. Using a stochastic stock‐recruitment model, Costello, et al. ( 2001 ) show the optimal management response to a prediction of favourable growth conditions is to reduce current harvests. We find this result may be reversed when environmental variability and stock are substitutes in growth, a possibility that has been ignored by resource economists. As an example, we analyze the South Carolina white shrimp fishery, finding the optimal response to a prediction of favourable overwinter conditions is to increase fall harvests.     

Children as Vulnerable Consumers in Online Environments

Children are seen as vulnerable consumers, yet little research has considered why they are more vulnerable than adults in an online context. This conceptual article uses an ecological paradigm to explore the underlying mechanisms that bring about vulnerability for children in general and specifically when interacting with online marketer created material. It does this by using the definition of a vulnerable consumer outlined by Baker, Gentry, and Rittenburg to focus on how marketing influence creates power imbalance, hinders consumption goals, and affects personal and social perceptions of self, leading children to be vulnerable consumers in online contexts. A social ecological conceptual framework is presented that demonstrates the interdependence of children's vulnerability with the social structure of their environments. Finally, in discussing how marketers are ultimately the agents in control of creating a fair marketplace for children online, policy implications are given.     

On Measuring the Growth-maximizing Tax Rate

A recent suggestion for estimating a country's growth-maximizing tax rate is shown not to be suited to that task.     

Sparking self-sustained learning: report on a design experiment to build technological fluency and bridge divides

In this article we report assessment results from two studies in an ongoing design experiment intended to provide a single school system with a sequence of secondary school level (ages 14–18) computer technology courses. In our first study, we share data on students’ learning as a function of the required introductory course and their pre-course history of technological experience. In order to go beyond traditional assessments of learning we assessed two aspects of students’ “learning ecologies”: their use of a variety of learning resources and the extent to which they share their knowledge about technology with others. In our second study we present patterns of course taking by male and female students who have almost completed their secondary schooling. In addition, we share case studies of students who elected to take more technology classes and leveraged their course experiences for internships, further education, and jobs. The quantitative and qualitative data are consistent with our hypothesis that students would become more technologically fluent and that their learning ecologies would diversify as a result of their project-based experiences.     

The effects of social and moral integration on ethical standards: A comparison of American and Ukrainian business students

This paper examines levels of similarity in ethical outlooks in countries where economic and sociocultural values may differ markedly. We compared students from a capitalist country, the United States, with students from Ukraine, a country experiencing dramatic ideological confusion and economic change. We tested the hypothesis that greater social and moral integration, as operationalized by a lack of alienation and by religiousness, will directly affect one's willingness to engage in unethical business practices.The sample was composed of business students in both Ukraine and the United States. The survey instrument consisted of widely used scales for measuring alienation and religiousness. The measure of ethical standards was a vignette-based quasi-projective technique.Results showed that, for the sample as a whole, willingness to engage in unethical business behavior was related to higher levels of alienation and lower levels of religiousness. The Ukrainians were also much more willing to engage in unethical behavior than were the Americans. The explanation for this difference is unclear, however. For the Ukrainians, religiousness and alienation did not explain the patterns in unethical behavior, and relationships were very weak for the Americans. There may be some unmeasured factor, such as economic exigency, that is influencing the results. It simply may be that people choose to behave more ethically when they have the luxury to do so. Dr. Ellen Kennedy and Dr. Leigh Lawton are Professors in the Department of Marketing at the University of St. Thomas. They have published several articles together in the Journal of Business Ethics and in Industrial Marketing Management. Most of their research deals with cross-cultural ethics.