Measuring the dynamics of APEC output connectedness

We examine the dynamics of output connectedness of Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies using time‐varying, region‐specific, generalised connectedness measures. We find that the connectedness of APEC economies with the rest of the world is quite substantial, with the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis increasing the connectedness measures above their precrisis levels. The USA, China, and Korea are shown to be systemically important and to dominate APEC’s real activities, while outside the APEC region the roles of India and the UK are also non‐negligible. These results suggest that the majority of APEC economies are considerably open to output shocks from the dominant economies such that policymakers in APEC must be continuously conscious of headwinds originating from these sources.     

Modern Trends and Problems of Migration in a Russian Border Region: The Far East

The article has analyzed trends and problems in migration processes in the Far East of Russia in the 2010s. There are restrictions on population growth in the Far East due to migration. It has been determined that the implementation of modern policy decisions with regard to the Far East region does not create real prerequisites for increasing the incomes of the population. It has been proved that, in order to attract population to the Far East, it is necessary to institute economic development in the region that can increase incomes and make them comparable to other more successful federal districts.     

Comparative Assessment of Mortality Rate of the Population in Russian and Foreign Megacities

The article presents the results of a comparative analysis of mortality trends in two Russian capitals and two cities with population over one million, Krasnoyarsk and Rostov-on-Don, in comparison with foreign megacities (Berlin, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, New York, Paris, Singapore, Tokyo). From 1990 to 2015, in the Russian “model cities” the standardized mortality rates (SMR) for all causes on average decreased by almost a third: most in Moscow (44% for men and 42% for women) and less for Krasnoyarsk (22% for both men and women). An assessment of the statistical reliability of the decrease in SMR on the basis of long time series showed the absence of a positive dynamic of mortality from diseases of the digestive organs, mainly cirrhosis, which confirms the presence of the alcoholic component. Despite the sufficiently steady decline in mortality in the early 2000s, its level in Russian cities continues to significantly exceed the mortality rate in foreign megacities.     

Evolution of the Infant Health Production Function

Michael Grossman's seminal publication on the demand for health and health production (Grossman 1972) has spawned a substantial body of research focusing on the production of infant health. This article provides a systematic review of the published literature to date on infant health production and how it has evolved over the past 3–4 decades as data have become more available, computing has improved, and econometric methods have become more sophisticated. While empirical research in most fields has expanded in corresponding ways, the infant health production research has become an important part of the broader and inherently multidisciplinary literature on intergenerational health. The strongest and most robust findings are that policies matter for infant health, particularly those affecting access to health care, and that prenatal smoking and other chemical exposures substantially compromise infant health. Promising directions for future research include elucidating relevant pathways, reconciling the largely inconsistent estimated effects of nutrition and education, and exploring the roles of preconceptional and lifetime health care, paternal factors, social support, housing, complementarity and substitutability of inputs, factors that modify effects of inputs, and evolving medical technologies.     

Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.     

Stock market volatility,the news,and monetary policy

The dynamic relationship linking the volatility of equity prices with “the news” and the expected path for monetary policy is investigated. Previous results that link the impact of the news about real activity to changes in current and future interest rates are employed in developing a positive link between changes in volatility and the news. Empirically, our results uncover a positive and statistically significant response of the CBOE volatility index, VIX, to unanticipated changes in employment, but not to inflation. Hence, agents' expectations for the policy response to news have an important influence on the expected volatility of stock prices. (JEL E44, E52)