Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data

This paper addresses, theoretically and empirically, the structure of influences affecting the default option in mortgage contracts. A formal theoretical model recognizes that a number of loan and non-loan related effects beyond equity in the unit could influence the default decision. These include 1) payment levels relative to income, which could displace other investment opportunities or cause a need for borrowing or sale to meet mortgage obligations; 2) current and expected neighborhood and housing market conditions, in particular the expected relative rate of appreciation of the unit and the relative cost of homeownership; 3) economic conditions; 4) wealth; 5) borrower characteristics proxying for variability in income or "crisis" events; as well as 6) transactions costs incurred upon default. Estimates of the model making use of a micro-level sample of individual loan histories over a twelve year period, supplemented by longitudinal census and economic information, find a number of these "other" effects important. Simulations find several of them to dominate the equity effect on default and to help explain why some households with zero or negative equity may not default, while others with positive equity may. The implications of these results for appropriate specification of the pricing model describing the default option and for appropriate underwriting of AMIs are noted.     

Limited paternalism and the Pontius Pilate Plight

Ebejer and Morden (‘Paternalism in the Marketplace: Should a Salesman Be His Buyer's Keeper?”, Journal of Business Ethics 7, 1988) propose ‘limited paternalism’ as a sufficient regulative condition for a professional ethic of sales. Although the principle is immediately appealing, its application can lead to a counter-productive ethical quandary I call the Pontius Pilate Plight. This quandary is the assumption that ethical agents' hands are clean in certain situations even if they have done something they condemn as immoral. Since limited paternalism can give rise to this queer conclusion in the salesperson/buyer relationship, the principle is suspect. It may be a necessary condition for ethical sales, but is not sufficient. This discussion concludes by suggesting two additional criteria which, when complemented by the limited paternalism principle, are jointly sufficient.     

MERGERS AND PRODUCT QUALITY: A SILVER LINING FROM DE‐HUBBING IN THE U.S. AIRLINE INDUSTRY

This paper investigates how de‐hubbing, which occurs when an airline ceases hub operations, impacts product quality. Examining four cases of de‐hubbing following U.S. airline mergers between 1998 and 2016, we analyze three product quality measures: on‐time performance, travel time, and flight cancellations. In order to isolate a merger's impact on product quality, we compare the results of four de‐hubbing events that followed a merger with three de‐hubbing cases that occurred independently of a merger. We find a silver lining from mergers because product quality improvements are isolated to de‐hubbing events which follow airline mergers rather than nonmerger‐induced de‐hubbing. (JEL L15, L93)     

Chinese commercial paper: The bank lending channel of monetary transmission and beyond

China's commercial paper financing experienced dramatic growth in January 2019. This paper examines the bank lending channel of China's monetary transmission to commercial paper, and more broadly, the factors that affect the growth of commercial paper, which is the first of its kind in the academic literature. The main conclusions include: the bank lending channel to commercial paper exists; the performance of the real economy also has a significant effect on the growth of the commercial paper.     

Can Natural Experiments Measure Behavioral Responses to Environmental Risks?

Efforts to measure people’s responses to spatially delineated risks confront the potential for correlation between these risks and other, unobserved characteristics of these locations. The possibility of correlation arises in part because individuals observe other locational attributes that can be expected to influence the hedonic equilibrium. One response to this problem is to use events from nature to exploit both temporal and spatial variation in the behavioral responses of interest. This paper evaluates the use of hurricanes as a source of new risk information to households in coastal counties potentially subject to the effects of these storms. We study the extent to which housing prices before and after hurricane Andrew, a hurricane with unprecedented property loss, reveal how Floridians responded to the risk information provided by the storm. Two counties are selected – one without and another with damage from the hurricane. To evaluate the plausibility of using quasi-random experiments for locations not directly affected by natural events, we compare Lee County’s results to those of Dade County, where the majority of the damage occurred. Our findings suggest, after controlling for ex post storm damage and changes in insurance markets, there is a reasonably high level of consistency in a repeat sales model’s ability to estimate the effects of the risk information conveyed by the storm for both counties. Department of Economics, Williams College, Affiliated Economist, CEnREP, North Carolina State University and University Distinguished Professor, North Carolina State University, and Resources for the Future University Fellow, respectively. Senior authorship is not assigned. Thanks are due to Shelby Gerking and two anonymous reviewers for careful and constructive comments that substantially improved the paper. Michael Darden and Jaren Pope provided excellent research assistance and Alex Boutaud and Susan Hinton helped to make sense out of numerous drafts of this work. Smith’s contribution was partially supported by the United States Department of Homeland Security through the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), grant number EMW-2004-GR-0112. However, any opinion, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect views of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.     

The Effective Delivery of a Streaming Video Course Lecture

Abstract

This study compares the effects of a faculty-read non-interactive streaming video lecture to the same lecture read by paid actors on student performance and perceptions. The scope of the study is limited to one learning objective of the first accounting course. No significant differences were found in student performance (n = 46), as measured by quiz grades, or student perceptions, as measured by a survey instrument, between the lectures read by faculty members and the lectures read by actors. These findings have implications for authors of online course content because the results suggest that the effectiveness of a non-interactive video presentation might not be dependent on the presenter. Faculty time might best be spent developing content with paid student actors going on-camera for recording the actual presentation.     

FINANCIAL LITERACY AND PENSION INVESTMENT DECISIONS

The call for enhanced financial literacy amongst consumers is a global phenomenon, driven by the growing complexity of financial markets and products, and government concerns about the affordability of supporting an ageing population. Worldwide, defined benefit pensions are giving way to the risk and uncertainty of defined contribution superannuation/pension funds where fund members now make choices and decisions that were once made on their behalf. An important prerequisite for informed financial decision‐making is adequate financial knowledge and skills to make competent investment decisions. This paper reports the findings of an online survey of the members of a large Australian public sector‐based superannuation fund and shows that although respondents generally understand basic financial matters, on average, their understanding of investments concepts, such as the relationship between risk and returns, is inadequate. These results highlight the need for education programs focusing specifically on developing fund members’ investment knowledge and skills to facilitate informed retirement savings decisions.