The Phasing of Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back‐loaded fiscal adjustments have the highest likelihood of success. Fiscal consolidations based on expenditure cuts increase the probability of approaching and achieving fiscal sustainability but are insufficient to maintain it unless accompanied by revenue reforms. Adjustment episodes launched in countries where governments enjoy a parliamentary majority and do not face imminent elections, are found to be more successful. Fiscal consolidations undertaken under IMF‐supported programs also have a higher probability of success.     

Tacit Collusion in a Spatial Model with Delivered Pricing

Received August 5, 1999; revised version received July 20, 2001     

Analysis of Hybrid Life-tests in Presence of Competing Risks

The mixture of type-I and type-II censoring schemes, called the hybrid censoring scheme is quite common in life-testing or reliability experiments. In this paper, we consider the competing risks model in presence of hybrid censored data. Under this set up, it is assumed that the item may fail due to various causes and the corresponding lifetime distributions are independent and exponentially distributed with different scale parameters. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the mean life of the different causes and derive their exact distributions. Using the exact distributions, all the moments can be obtained. Asymptotic confidence intervals and two bootstrap confidence intervals are also proposed. Bayes estimates and credible intervals of the unknown parameters are obtained under the assumptions of independent inverted gamma priors of the mean life of the different causes. Different methods have been compared using Monte Carlo simulations. Onereal data set has been analyzed for illustrative purposes. Part of the work was supported by a grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council.     

Feedback‐seeking behavior within multinational corporations

Notwithstanding their concern with intra‐MNC control mechanisms, scholars have overlooked the complementary phenomenon of self‐regulatory behavior by subsidiaries. In this paper, we take the first steps towards addressing this gap by advancing and testing hypotheses dealing with the determinants of a major element of self‐regulatory behavior at the subsidiary level, i.e., the performance‐oriented feedback‐seeking behavior of subsidiary presidents. Utilizing data from 374 subsidiaries of 75 MNCs, we test hypotheses regarding the impact of subsidiary task and organizational context on the feedback‐seeking behavior of subsidiary presidents. The results of this study can be summarized as follows: (i) subsidiary presidents do engage in proactive performance‐oriented feedback‐seeking behavior; (ii) they vary in the extent to which they engage in such behavior; and (iii) these variations in feedback‐seeking behavior are at least partially systematic. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach

This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1–1994:Q4; and then forecasts one-to-four quarters-ahead real house price growth over the out-of-sample horizon of 1995:Q1–2006:Q4. The forecasts are evaluated by comparing them with those from an unrestricted classical Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the corresponding univariate variant of the same. Finally, the models that produce the minimum average Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs), are used to predict the downturns in the real house price growth over the recent period of 2007:Q1–2008:Q1. The results show that the BVARs, in whatever form they might be, are the best performing models in 19 of the 20 states. Moreover, these models do a fair job in predicting the downturn in 18 of the 19 states.     

Using Genetic Algorithms to Optimize the Selection of Cost Drivers in Activity-based Costing

In this paper, we address a cost-drivers optimization (CDO) problem in which two separate but interrelated decisions (i.e. the number of cost drivers needed and which cost drivers to use) are considered. It is desirable to have (1) an optimal selection of cost drivers in order to provide better indication of product costs and (2) an optimal number of cost drivers in order to avoid excessive control costs and to minimize information costs associated with data collection, storage and processing. The objective of the CDO problem is to balance savings in information costs with loss of accuracy. We propose an heuristic procedure based on genetic algorithms as an alternative with the potential to address more generalized objective functions. Genetic algorithms represent an innovative and promising heuristic approach which does produce results superior to published alternatives. The development and implementation of the algorithm is supported with the literature review and comparative analysis. We also comment on the complexity and experimental design issues for addressing large and practical problems.     

Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS

This paper examines the effect of geopolitical uncertainty on return and volatility dynamics in the BRICS stock markets via nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests. The effect of geopolitical risks (GPRs) is found to be heterogeneous across the BRICS stock markets, suggesting that news regarding geopolitical tensions do not affect return dynamics in these markets in a uniform way. GPRs are generally found to impact stock market volatility measures rather than returns, and often at return quantiles below the median, indicating the role of GPRs as a driver of bad volatility in these markets. While Russia bears the greatest risk exposure to GPRs in terms of both return and volatility, India is found to be the most resilient BRICS nation in the group. Noting that geopolitical shocks and in particular terrorist incidents are largely unanticipated, our findings underscore the importance of a strong financial sector that can help return the market to stability and an open economy that allows local investors to diversify country-specific risks in their portfolios.     

Revisiting the gender gap in CEO compensation: Replication and extension of Hill,Upadhyay, and Beekun's (2015) work on CEO gender pay gap

Research Summary: The increasing number of women chief executives motivates considerable interest in examining possible gender differences in CEO compensation. Recently, Hill, Upadhyay and Beekun reported that female CEOs receive greater compensation than male CEOs, which runs counter to common wisdom that the gender pay gap in the labor market favors men over women. With the goal of contributing to cumulative knowledge development in this area, we seek to reexamine Hill et al.'s finding about gender differences in CEO compensation by extending the analyses further in time, using a larger sample of firms and more rigorous empirical analyses. Our findings, which are robust to different statistical procedures and econometric specifications, do not reveal reliable evidence for differences in compensation paid to male and female CEOs. Managerial Summary : For years, a lively debate has centered on the issue of gender pay gap. The ubiquity of the pay gap between men and women has recently been questioned by Hill et al. who identify the chief executive officer (CEO) role as a workplace position where women receive greater compensation than men. Our investigation examines whether women CEOs are indeed compensated substantively more than male CEOs. We seek to replicate earlier work by Hill and colleagues, using an expanded dataset over a longer period of time and with more rigorous analytical tools. We do not find reliable evidence for a difference in compensation paid to male and female CEOs, suggesting that claims about gender gap in CEO compensation favoring women over men may be premature.     

On estimating market efficiency

In this paper, we discuss commentaries by Maynes and Hjorth-Andersen on our earlier paper (1990), and then go on to discuss the merits of various measures of market efficiency which have appeared in the literature. While Maynes criticized the model in our 1990 paper for a lack of realism, we argue that our limited objective of demonstrating that price-quality correlations are not necessarily related to market efficiency did not require a model which was realistic in all details. We also demonstrate that our basic conclusion that the price-quality correlation need not measure market efficiency does not depend on our theoretical model. Hjorth-Andersen advanced a number of alternative reasons why price-quality correlations may not measure efficiency, and we view his arguments largely as complementary to ours. The basic conclusion is that there are severe problems with interpreting measured price-quality correlations as measures of efficiency. We go on to discuss alternative measures. While no alternatives are completely satisfactory, we argue that measures based on deviations from an efficient frontier have some attractive properties, and are currently the most desirable alternative.

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Zur bestimmung der effizienz von mÄrkten

Zusammenfassung Die Autoren gehen in diesem Beitrag auf die Kommentare von Maynes (1992) und Hjorth-Andersen (1992) zu ihrem früheren Beitrag in dieser Zeitschrift (1990) ein und diskutieren dann die verschiedenen Indikatoren der Markteffizienz, die in der Literatur vorgeschlagen wurden. WÄhrend Maynes das Modell des früheren Beitrages der Autoren wegen zu geringer RealitÄtsnahe kritisierte, halten die Autoren jetzt dagegen, da\ für das begrenzte Ziel jenes Beitrages, nÄmlich zu zeigen, da\ Preis-QualitÄts-Korrelationen nicht notwendigerweise mit Marktef-fizienz verknüpft sind, Wirklichkeitstreue in allen Details gar nicht erforderlich ist. Sie zeigen darüber hinaus, da\ ihre grundlegende Schlu\folgerung, da\ Preis-QualitÄts-Korrelationen nicht ein Ma\ der Markteffizienz sein müssen, von ihrem theoretischen Modell nicht einmal abhÄngt. Hjorth-Andersen führt eine Reihe weiterer Gründe an, deretwegen Preis-QualitÄts-Korrelationen keine Indikatoren für Effizienz sein mögen, die von den Autoren als ErgÄnzung der eigenen überlegungen angesehen werden. Das Hauptergebnis des vorliegenden Beitrages ist folglich, da\ es ernste Probleme bei der Interpretation solcher Korrelationen als Effizienz-Ma\e gibt. Sie diskutieren deshalb andere Indikatoren, von denen allerdings keiner vollstÄndig befriedigend ist. Allerdings dürften Ma\e, die die Abweichung von einer Grenzlinie günstigster EinkÄufe erfassen, zur Zeit die aussichtsreichste Möglichkeit sein.

     

Preference aggregation and repeat buying in households

Marketing researchers have long used brand switching analyses and Markov transition matrices to gain insights into managerial problems. Almost without exception, this work makes (inappropriate) inferences about individual consumers by analyzing household-level data. This paper presents a procedure based on the distribution of run lengths in household level panel data that allows more insights into the choice behavior of the individuals in the household. We test these procedures in a large simulation study by attempting to recover the underlying (known) structure of the process generating a string of panel data. Finally, we use the procedure to classify the purchase behavior, with respect to powdered soft drinks, of a set of households in a panel. Our results show that marketing scientists have the potential to learn and test more hypotheses about the individuals in a household by examining the distribution of run lengths.We gratefully acknowledge Professor Bari Harlam of the University of Rhode Island for providing the panel data.