Growth and Election Outcomes in a Developing Country

We offer the first test of the hypothesis that rapid growth helps incumbents win elections for a developing country, India. We generalize the Fair (1978) model to allow for multiple candidates and test it using cross‐state data on 422 candidates in the 2009 parliamentary elections. We find quantitatively large and statistically robust effect of growth on the prospects of the candidates of the state incumbent parties to win elections.     

The Credibility–Cooperation Connection at the R&D-Marketing Interface

Research and development (R&D) managers' perceptions of both marketing information and marketing managers are analyzed using an information and source credibility framework. The findings are based on a study of R&D directors in 80 technology-intensive companies and focus on activities and interactions during the new product development process. The authors found that the R&D managers' perceptions differed significantly in high and low integration companies. These perceptions also were influenced by various organizational practices. The R&D-marketing cooperation was highest where organizational practices were conducive to cooperation and R&D perceived marketing input as credible. Several implications for creating a corporate climate conducive to interfunctional cooperation are developed.     

The short-run impact of fluctuating primary commodity prices on three developing economies: Columbia,Ivory Coast and Kenya

Computable general equilibrium models are used to study the short-run impact of fluctuating primary commodity prices on the economies of Columbia, Ivory Coast and Kenya. The results indicate that these economies are destabilized by primary commodity price fluctuations unless governments act to hold real domestic absorption constant. To achieve this, however, would require foreign exchange reserves in excess of the level normally available to these governments for the purpose of stabilizing domestic economic activity.     

A cost function approach to the estimation of minimum efficient scale,returns to scale,and suboptimal capacity: With an application to Canadian manufacturing

This paper presents a new method for utilizing the statistical cost technique to measure minimum efficient scale (MES), returns to scale and suboptimal capacity. An application of the duality theory between cost and homothetic production functions leads to justification for ignoring poor quality or unavailable capital data and the pooling of several years observations to improve the efficiency of the estimates. The methodology is applied to 91 four-digit Canadian manufacturing industries to obtain estimates of MES, returns to scale, and suboptimal capacity. For a subsample of industries, we demonstrate that the cost function estimates of MES and returns to scale are more closely related to engineering estimates than are the ad hoc estimates usually found in the industrial organization literature.     

A test of the efficiency of futures markets in commodities

Zusammenfassung Ein Test der Effizienz von Warenterminm?rkten. — In Reaktion auf die UNCTAD-Pl?ne zur Stabilisierung von Rohstoffpreisen durch beh?rdliche Ausgleichslager hat sich die Diskussion um Warenterminm?rkte als alternative, marktkonforme Stabilisierungsinstrumente erneut entfacht. Eine wesentliche Voraussetzung für den stabilisierenden EinfluΒ der Termingesch?fte auf die Kassapreise von Rohstoffen ist, daΒ die Terminm?rkte ?effizient? sind, d. h., die Terminmarktpreise s?mtliche jeweilig verfügbare Information widerspiegeln. In diesem Aufsatz wird die Effizienz der Terminm?rkte für fünf wichtige Rohstoffe (Kupfer, Zinn, Zucker, Kakao und Kaffee) des UNCTAD-Programms getestet. Dazu werden ARIMAZeitreihenmodelle der Kassapreise gesch?tzt und die Entwicklungen ex post vorhergesagt. Die so gewonnenen Ex-post-Prognosen sind effiziente Vorhersagen, da die Modelle alle systematischen Komponenten einer Zeitreihe erfassen, so daΒ der unerkl?rte Rest zufallsverteilt ist. Ein Vergleich zwischen dem mittleren quadrierten Vorhersageirrtum der Prognosemodelle und dem der Warenterminm?rkte zeigt, daΒ die Terminm?rkte in allen F?llen künftige Entwicklungen ebensogut oder besser anzeigen als die Modelle. Folglich kann die Hypothese, daΒ die untersuchten M?rkte im oben beschriebenen Sinn effizient sind, nicht verworfen werden.

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Résumé Un test de l’efficacité des marchés á terme des matières premières. — cet article nous faisons un test ?demi-fort? sur l’efficacité de marché pour cinq matières — le cuivre, l’étain, le sucre, le cacao et le café — pour lesquelles la CNUCED a proposé de stabiliser les prix par des schemes des stocks régulateurs. Les résultats indiquent que, pour la période observée, on ne peut pas refuser 1’ hypothèse que les marchés á terme de ces matières premières sont efficaces dans le sens que le marché emploie toutes les informations publiquement disponibles en formant les expectatives sur les prix au comptant futurs. Nous concluons que la stabilisation des prix au comptant de quelques matières premières pourrait être regardée comme alternative favorable vis-á-vis les schemes des stocks régulateurs de la CNUCED.

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Resumen El test de la eficiencia de mercados a futuro de productos primarios. — En este articulo se realiza un test de eficiencia de mercado de forma ?semi-fuerte? para cinco productos, espedficamente, cobre estafio, azücar, cacao, y café, cuyos precios UNCTAD ha propuesto estabilizar a través de esquemas de stocks amortiguadores. Los resultados indican que para el periodo estudiado, la hip?tesis de que los mercados a futuro para estos productos son eflcientes en el sentido de que el mercado emplea toda la informacion que se puede obtener püblicamente, informando sobre expectativas de los precios puntuales futuros, no puede ser rechazada. Se concluye entonces, que la estabilización de los precios puntuales para algunos productos primarios a través de mercados a futuro puede ser considerada como una alternativa favorable frente a los esquemas de Stocks amortiguadores de UNCTAD.

     

Theory and applications of the Delphi technique: A bibliography (1975–1994)

Delphi is a popular, long-range, qualitative forecasting technique that has been extensively applied to a wide variety of problems in different domains. Since the method was conceived in the early 1950s at the Rand Corporation, different variations of Delphi have evolved in an effort to meet the unique forecasting needs of different decision makers. This bibliographic study surveys the literature on the methodology and applications of Delphi over a period of two decades (1975–1994). A total of 463 papers were identified out of which 254 papers treat Delphi as a primary subject while the remaining 209 papers treat Delphi as a secondary subject. The study concludes with a brief commentary on the Delphi technique that may be useful for researchers and practitioners in qualitative forecasting.     

Applying Case-Based Reasoning to the Accounting Domain

Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) is rapidly emerging as a rich and powerful artificial intelligence approach that can overcome some inherent weaknesses of traditional expert system technology. Several successful CBR systems have been developed in a variety of fields and CBR applications are beginning to emerge in accounting research and practice as well. As sophisticated and user-friendly CBR shells emerge, CBR is more likely to be used to solve complex, real-world problems. This paper provides a broad overview of case-based systems and the principles on which the field is founded. Accounting applications of case-based reasoning and future research issues are identified.     

Valuation of Urban Air Pollution: A Case Study of Kanpur City in India

This study estimates the monetary benefits to individuals from health damages avoided if air pollution is reduced in the urban industrial city of Kanpur in India. A notable feature of this study is that it uses data from weekly health-diaries collected for three seasons. For measuring monetary benefits, the study considers two major components of health cost that is incurred due to adverse effects of air pollution on health i.e., the loss in wages due to workdays lost from work and the expenditure incurred on mitigating activities. The study estimates that a representative working individual from Kanpur would gain Rs. 165.47 per year if air pollution were reduced to a safe level. The extrapolated annual benefits for the entire population in the city are Rs. 224.55 million.     

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