A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa

This paper uses large Factor Models (FMs), which accommodate a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting the per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate for the South African economy. The FMs used in this study contain 267 quarterly series observed over the period 1980Q1-2006Q4. The results, based on the RMSEs of one- to four-quarter-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from 2001Q1 to 2006Q4, indicate that the FMs tend to outperform alternative models such as an unrestricted VAR, Bayesian VARs (BVARs) and a typical New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model in forecasting the three variables under consideration, hence indicating the blessings of dimensionality.     

A Fireside Chat with Raj Gupta: What It Takes to Create Long‐Term Value

The chairman of two public companies (and former chair and CEO of Rohm and Haas) draws on his experience as a director of five private and 15 public companies in discussing the challenges and opportunities facing today's corporate boards. Perhaps the most formidable challenge is the pace of technological change, which is making business models ‘in all industries and countries’ obsolete and forcing companies to adapt much more quickly than in the past. Along with the risk of obsolescence is the increase in ‘reputational risk’ associated with an ‘information age’ in which companies are forced to monitor the nearly continuous flow of fact, hearsay, and outright fabrication. The author recommends that public company boards adopt a new ‘partnership’ model. Besides ensuring an ‘ethical tone at the top,’ corporate directors should aim to become partners with the senior management team by playing more active roles in strategic planning, risk management, and the design of performance evaluation and incentive pay systems. In the most striking departure from current practice, the author urges directors to seize the opportunity created by the ‘reconcentration’ of ownership of U.S. public companies by actively engaging large institutional investors in a strategic dialogue about the companies' strengths and vulnerabilities. In so doing, proactive directors can help their management teams preempt shareholder activists and create long‐run value by creating a more effective two‐way channel of communication, one with the potential to give management more confidence when undertaking large strategic investments with longer‐run payoffs.     

Exchange rate returns and volatility: the role of time-varying rare disaster risks

This paper provides empirical evidence to the theoretical claim that rare disaster risks have predictability for exchange rate returns and volatility using a nonparametric quantile-based methodology. Using dollar-based exchange rates for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the quantile-causality test shows that indeed rare disaster-risks affects both returns and volatility over the majority of their respective conditional distributions. In addition, these effects are much stronger when compared to those using the British pound, especially in terms of currency returns.     

Geography,Informal Information Flows and Mutual Fund Portfolios

This paper explores how informal information channels impact mutual fund performance. We measure the strengths of two location‐based information channels: 1) information transfers among fund managers (fund‐fund links) and 2) transfers between managers and the companies in which they invest (fund‐company links). We find that each channel increases investment performance in the absence of the other, but decreases it when acting in combination. Stock selection associated with the presence of one channel, but the absence of the other, earns positive future returns. Our results indicate that the economic benefits of informal information channels depend critically on the nature of their interactions.     

Queues with batch poisson arrivals and hyper-exponential service time distribution

Summary We consider in this paper the transient behaviour of the queuing system in which (i) the input, following a Poisson distribution, is in batches of variable numbers; (ii) queue discipline is ‘first come first served’, it being assumed that the batches are pre-ordered for service purposes; and (iii) service time distribution is hyper-exponential withn branches. The Laplace transform of the system size distribution is determined by applying the method of generating functions, introduced in queuing theory byBailey [1]. However, assuming steady state conditions to obtain, the problem is completely solved and it is shown that by suitably defining the traffic intensity factor,ϱ, the value,p ₀, of the probability of no delay, remains the same in this case of batch arrivals also as in the case of single arrivals. The Laplace transform of the waiting time distribution is also calculated in steady state case from which the mean waiting time may be calculated. Some of the known results are derived as particular cases.     

Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform?

This paper studies whether revenue conditionality in Fund programs had any impact on the revenue performance of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993–2013. The results indicate that such conditionality had a positive impact on tax revenue, with strongest improvement felt on taxes on goods and services, including the VAT. Revenue conditionality matters more for low-income countries, particularly those where revenue ratios are below the group average. Moreover, revenue conditionality appears to be more effective when targeted to a specific tax. These results hold after controlling for potential endogeneity, sample selection bias, and when revenues are adjusted for economic cycle.     

DO SCANDALS TRIGGER GOVERNANCE CHANGES? EVIDENCE FROM OPTION BACKDATING

We examine whether firms charged with backdating option grants make discernible changes to board structure and activity and whether such changes help recoup value losses from the revelation of option backdating. We find that these firms increased board size, reduced duality, and increased board independence. In addition, the boards and the compensation committees of these firms experienced significant increases in meeting frequency. We also find that firms in the same sectors that had not been identified as backdating option grants experienced similar changes in board activity and some elements of board structure. Additional analysis reveals that increases in board size, chief excutive officer turnover, and the meeting frequency of the audit committee are related to buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns in the postscandal period.     

A Framework for Understanding Corporate Social Responsibility Programs as a Continuum: An Exploratory Study

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programs are increasingly popular corporate marketing strategies. This paper argues that CSR programs can fall along a continuum between two endpoints: Institutionalized programs and Promotional programs. This classification is based on an exploratory study examining the variance of four responses from the consumer stakeholder group toward these two categories of CSR. Institutionalized CSR programs are argued to be most effective at increasing customer loyalty, enhancing attitude toward the company, and decreasing consumer skepticism. Promotional CSR programs are argued to be more effective at generating purchase intent. Ethical and managerial implications of these preliminary findings are discussed. Julie Pirsch, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at Villanova University. She researches in the areas of cause-related marketing, corporate social responsibility, and new product development. Shruti Gupta, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor of Management at The Pennsylvania State University at Abington, in Abington, Pennsylvania. Dr. Gupta’s research interests lie in the area of corporate social responsibility, cause-related marketing, environmental consumerism, and social marketing issues. Stacy Landreth, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at the University of North Texas. She researches in the areas of cause-related marketing and social marketing alliances, as well as advertising source effects.