International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies

We use a version of the Global Projection Model covering the United States, Euro area and Japan to assess options for dealing with the looming risk of international deflation. The zero floor to interest rates constrains monetary policy. Confidence intervals, derived from stochastic simulations, indicate ranges of uncertainty. The results suggest a high probability of a declining price level for a couple of quarters in 2009. Suitable policy adaptations reduce the risk that this might turn into a prolonged, global deflation. These include: a price level path target for monetary policy, which would respond to previous, as well as expected, shortfalls from the desired inflation rate; a more stimulative fiscal policy; and an increase in the long-run target for inflation.     

Does the law of one price hold in China? Testing price convergence using disaggregated data

This study examines to what extent prices diverge across China and how long it takes prices to converge following idiosyncratic shocks. We consider monthly data using disaggregated goods prices from 36 cities in China. Following [Imbs, J., Mumtaz, H., Ravn, M., and Rey, H., 2005. PPP strikes back: aggregation and the real exchange rate. Quarterly Journal of Economics 120, 1–44.], we use two estimation methods: a fixed effect method when considering goods individually and a mean group estimation specification for a panel including all goods simultaneously. The mean group method also accounts for dynamic heterogeneity across goods. Impulse response functions are obtained to calculate half-lives. With both methods, we find half-lives of only a few months or less, supporting the conjecture that convergence rates within a country are faster than rates estimated in an international context. However, the half-life reported here is still shorter than that for other studies using disaggregated intracountry data. Perhaps a lower degree of specialization and market differentiation in developing countries creates a greater potential for price convergence.     

多维企业战略柔性体系增强模型的构建

基于Porter的价值链思想,从企业外部环境不确定性和内部资源可调整性的视角,构建了多维企业战略柔性体系。基于该体系,将战略领导力作为首要的决定因素,提出了基于企业资源适应性和协同性的企业战略柔性的增强模型和增强途径。     

Brand Equity Management in a Multichannel,Multimedia Retail Environment

Today's multichannel, multimedia retail marketing environment presents a number of brand management challenges. From a micro perspective, marketers must manage each individual channel and communication option to maximize their direct sales and brand equity effects, as well as any indirect brand equity effects from being associated with a particular channel or communication option. From a macro perspective, marketers must design and implement channel and communication options such that sales and brand equity effects are synergistic. Concepts, frameworks, and future research directions are put forth to address these different challenges.     

基于产业链视角的中国电气机械制造业优化升级研究

本文基于2002-2015年全国投入产出表和延长表,以及2000-2012年日本投入产出表测算的产业关联和波及效应,从产业链角度对电气机械制造业的优化升级进行了动态分析和比较分析。研究表明：中国电气机械制造业关联产业广泛,产业内关联增强,对国民经济的需求拉动作用强于供给推动作用。但研发投入不足,技术进步迟滞,行业附加值率下降,对需求变化的供给适应能力不足,产值结构、技术结构和市场适应能力有待调整和优化。针对存在的突出问题,提出如下建议：以产业链协同发展为抓手,促进产学研合作,加大研发投入,调整产出的技术结构;以关联产业需求为指向,挖掘内需,调整产出的市场结构;提高产业服务化水平,延长产业链,协调产业链整体发展。     

Why Do People Leave? a Study Of Nonsupervisory Restaurant Employees’ Polychronic Time Use Preference and Turnover Intention

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the study was to present a comprehensive view on the associations among polychronicity, job satisfaction, work engagement, and turnover intention within a restaurant context. Using a sample of 252 servers in full-service restaurants, structural equation modeling results found that polychronicity positively linked with job satisfaction, work engagement, and turnover intention. An indirect effect from polychronicity to job satisfaction to turnover intention was found. Results can assist restaurant managers in selecting candidates that best fit their organization. It will also assist employees in determining which career path best matches their personality traits.     

全球经济滞胀风险成因及前景

当前全球通胀压力不断加大,从欧盟的情况来看,由于减碳力度加大,碳价及能源价格暴涨正在推动电价飙升,多国PPI突破10%,创近30年之最;从美国情况来看,政策刺激力度超过次贷危机,短期内需求扩张推升了通胀;从生产要素看,疫情下的供应链中断叠加油气价格暴涨,各国都面临要素成本上升的问题;从不可控因素看,极端天气变化导致全球食品价格大幅上涨。在通胀压力与日俱增的同时,全球经济在短暂修复后出现放缓的趋势,呈现出滞胀的特征。为了避免经济滞胀向中长期演化,需要加强国际政策合作。     

“十二五”时期转变经济发展方式、促进循环经济的关键政策研究

通过对我国十二五时期转变经济发展方式的宏观背景进行分析,得出循环经济仍然是我国转变经济发展方式的重要着力点的结论,剖析了循环经济的重要地位和作用,对循环经济的若干重要问题提出政策性建议。     

当前中国消费不足的四种基本形态——兼析消费不足的具体成因

当前中国消费不足产生的背景及条件与西方国家的消费不足具有很大不同,是多种成因共同作用的结果,表现为四种基本形态:一是消费抑致形成的消费不足;二是购买力低下形成的消费不足;三是消费倾向降低形成的消费不足;四是国际市场萎缩形成的消费不足。对于这四种形态的消费不足,应采取分类治理的办法,确定适当的治理目标。