Australian Monetary Policy: Recent Experience and Some Current Issues

This article surveys Australia's recent monetary experience highlighting current problems in interpreting the stance of monetary policy. It then examines changes in the techniques of monetary policy stemming from deregulation and changing views of the authorities. Finally, money supply control, deregulation and broad money growth, and commercial bill financing are analysed so as to help to shed light on the current problems of interpreting monetary condition.     

How do contribution limits affect contributions to tax-preferred savings accounts?

Contributions to tax-preferred savings accounts are typically constrained by a contribution limit. These limits influence contributions not only for taxpayers currently constrained by the limit, but also for those contributing less than the limit. I develop a simple life-cycle model in which taxpayers exhibit ‘use it or lose it’ contribution behavior. This connects current contributions to future contribution limits, and implies that an increase in contribution limits can decrease contributions. Empirical evidence from microdata provides support for the model. Using variation from Canadian limit reforms I find that larger future contribution room is associated with smaller contributions.     

The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration

The paper formulates hypotheses and reports on individual attitudes towards immigration based on data for 24 countries on socioeconomic position, sociodemographic characteristics and political attitudes. The results are consistent with the predictions of factor proportions trade theory, but also suggest that a range of other economic and cultural factors influence attitudes towards immigration.     

A simple model of coalitional bidding

Summary. We analyze a model of coalitional bidding in which coalitions form endogenously and compete with each other. Since the nature of this competition influences the way in which agents organize themselves into coalitions, our main aim is to characterize the equilibrium coalition structure and the resulting bids. We do so in a simple model in which the seller may have good reason to allow joint bidding. In particular, we study a model in which the agents are budget constrained, and are allowed to form coalitions to pool their finances before engaging in the first price auction. We show that if the budget constraint is very severe, the equilibrium coalition structure consists of two coalitions, one slightly larger than the other; interestingly, it is not the grand coalition. This equilibrium coalition structure is one which yields (approximately) the maximum expected revenue. Thus the seller can induce the optimal (revenue maximizing) degree of cooperation among budget constrained buyers simply by permitting them to collude. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: November 13, 2000     

Does confidence data help forecast business cycles? New evidence from Canada

This paper assesses the contribution of confidence – or sentiment – data for predicting Canadian economic slowdowns. A probit framework is applied to an indicator of the status of the Canadian business cycle produced by the OECD. Explanatory variables include all available Canadian data on sentiment (from four distinct surveys) as well as macroeconomic and financial data. Sentiment data are introduced either as individual variables, as simple averages (such as confidence indices) and as confidence factors extracted from larger datasets containing all available sentiment data. Results indicate that the full potential of confidence data for forecasting Canadian business cycles obtains when factor models are used and all confidence data are utilized.     

Forecasting the barbados money supply

The purpose of this paper is to provide an adequate forecasting method for the money supply in the Barbadian economy. This would assist the Central Bank in making decisions on monetary intervention. The performance of ARIMA and vector autoregressive forecasting models are investigated along with combinations of these models. The results of this study suggest that there are reasonable options available for obtaining reliable forecasts of the Barbados money supply. Our findings indicate that seasonal factors and interest rate effects should be comprehended within the forecasting model. We accomplished this through a combination forecasting procedure in which seasonal effects are captured by an ARIMA model and interest rates are introduced through a vector autoregressive forecasting model as exogenous variables.     

Unemployment dispersion and the allocative efficiency of the labor market

An idea that seems to gain recurrent popularity in the economics profession is that, because of technological change, changes in consumer demand, skill mismatches, and the like, the unemployed tend to become concentrated or trapped in particular geographic areas and that for these reasons unemployment rates have grown more disparate over time. This paper examines the theoretical conditions necessary for the above argument to hold and shows that such conditions are not consistent with the notion of a competitive labor market. The paper then examines various measures of unemployment-rate dispersion in order to determine whether or not unemployment rates have indeed drifted further apart over time. The empirical evidence presented indicates unequivocally that geographic unemployment rates are neither more nor less dispersed now than they were twenty years ago. The results, therefore, suggest that the competitive view of the labor market is appropriate and that the hypothesis that unemployment rates have become more dispersed over time because of structural imperfections in the labor market should be rejected.     

Six Sigma: The role of goals in improvement teams

The tenets of goal theory have been well established as a motivation mechanism in the management literature. However, some quality-management advocates, such as W. Edwards Deming, often criticize the use of goals. This research investigates the tension between goals and quality management in the Six Sigma context. We find empirical support that goals can be effective in Six Sigma improvement teams when teams adhere to the Six Sigma tools and method. However, challenging goals are counterproductive when Six Sigma teams do not use the tools and methods rigorously. This research reconciles the differences between quality management and goal theory by showing that the Six Sigma tools and method interact with goals.     

Performance responses to competition across skill levels in rank‐order tournaments: field evidence and implications for tournament design

Tournaments are widely used in the economy to organize production and innovation. We study individual data on 2775 contestants in 755 software algorithm development contests with random assignment. The performance response to added contestants varies nonmonotonically across contestants of different abilities, precisely conforming to theoretical predictions. Most participants respond negatively, whereas the highest‐skilled contestants respond positively. In counterfactual simulations, we interpret a number of tournament design policies (number of competitors, prize allocation and structure, number of divisions, open entry) and assess their effectiveness in shaping optimal tournament outcomes for a designer.