Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

Labour market adjustment to third-party competition: Evidence from Mexico

China's exports reduce wages in importing countries, but few studies have looked at competition in third-party markets. We examine labour market outcomes in Mexico's apparel and textile sectors associated with US apparel and textile imports from China. Using data on US imports in conjunction with quarterly Mexican labour force surveys, we show that US imports from China are associated with a reduction of employment in Mexico's apparel and textile sectors. These effects are the most pronounced for the least educated. Wages were not impacted on net except for possibly the poorest which would indicate stronger local labour market ties in the left tail of the wage distribution. Finally, the effects of trade-induced demand shocks dissipate after about two quarters indicating low firm-level adjustment costs.     

Earnings on the Information Technology Roller Coaster: Insight from Matched Employer-Employee Data

This article uses matched employer-employee data for the State of Georgia to examine workers' earnings experience through the information technology (IT) sector's employment boom of the mid-1990s and bust in the early 2000s. The results show that even after controlling for pre-boom individual characteristics, transitioning out of the IT sector to a non-IT industry generally resulted in a large wage penalty. However, IT service workers who transitioned to a non-IT industry still fared better than workers who took a non-IT employment path. For IT manufacturing workers, there is no benefit to having been touched by technology, likely because of the nontransferability of manufacturing experience to other industries.     

Post-Communist Consumer Ethics: The Case of Romania

In this paper we theorize that cognitive ethical orientations play an influential role in the beliefs of consumers when faced with different ranges of moral dilemmas. We examine this proposition in transitional Eastern Europe and results from a sample of 210 Romanian consumers suggest that Romanians are faced with a moral situation where low levels of Machiavellianism and high levels of idealism appear to relate to a higher ethical concern about passively benefiting at the expense of others.     

POST-CHANDLERIAN FIRMS: TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND FIRM BOUNDARIES

While the Chandlerian firm has come to dominate large sectors of advanced economies, recent studies have shown that the properties of knowledge used by firms, the dynamic nature of transaction costs, and the impact of information and communication technologies on organisations might reduce firm scale and scope. We present a contingent model of firm boundaries that explains why, as a result of technological change, firms might simultaneously outsource some activities that they had formerly preferred to produce in-house while increasing their vertical integration in other areas. We support our conclusions with evidence from different industries.     

The Road Bruges

Will the single market lead to a single economy? Patrick Robertson, the founder of the Bruges Group, claims that the single market and harmonisation is in danger of being used as a subtle means of protecting domestic industries with the ultimate aim of forming a European superstate.     

Overcoming underdevelopment in South Africa's second economy

This paper is a synthesis of the July 2005 Development Report published by the Development Bank of Southern Africa, Human Sciences Research Council and United Nations Development Programme (DBSA, HSRC and UNDP). The Report asks why, if the origins of economic dualism are rooted in the cheap, forced, migrant labour introduced by the mining industry and reinforced during apartheid, does dualism persist under democracy when all the relevant laws and many of the practices of the past have been abolished? The breakdown of apartheid did not immediately translate into improved material conditions for the majority of South Africans: 300 years of colonialism and 50 of internal colonialism had hard-wired a duality into the system. Two worlds, which may be conceptualised as the first and second economies, coexisted: a globally integrated world of production, exchange and consumption, and a constrained world of informality, poverty and marginalisation. This synthesis sheds light on the origin and nature of the ‘second economy’ metaphor, and suggests solutions.