The experience trap

When companies put seasoned managers in charge of important projects, they don't expect missed deadlines, budget overruns, and rampant defects. However, that's what researchers found when they tested hundreds of experienced project managers with computer games that simulated software development projects. The study, conducted by two professors from Insead and one from Naval Postgraduate School, strongly suggests that veterans in complex environments suffer a breakdown in the learning process. The research reveals three reasons for the breakdowns: Time lags between causes and effects make it difficult to see how they're connected; fallible estimates color the chain of decisions that determine a project's outcome; and a bias toward the initial goals prevents managers from setting revised, more appropriate, targets when project circumstances change. Sticking to an initial low budget goal after a project grew in scope, for instance, led subjects to ignore quality assurance, which led to soaring defect rates--and costs. Companies can take practical steps to fix the learning cycle. They can provide feedback that shows the relationships between important variables in the environment. Such feedback might reveal, say, the 20-day ramp-up that a new quality assurance team needs before becoming fully effective. Tools that apply formal models to calculate such things as the effect of turnover on team productivity also help. Setting goals for behavior, instead of targets for performance, is critical as well. Finally, firms can create project "flight simulators" that mimic actual learning environments but don't let complexity overwhelm trainees. Managers can continue learning only if they get decision support tailored to the challenges they face. Firms would do well to focus more on training people higher up in the organization and stop leaving them to fend for themselves.     

Measuring environmental efficiency of industry: a case study of thermal power generation in India

Technical and environmental efficiency of some coal-fired thermal power plants in India is estimated using a methodology that accounts for firm’s efforts to increase the production of good output and reduce pollution with the given resources and technology. The methodology used is directional output distance function. Estimates of firm-specific shadow prices of pollutants (bad outputs), and elasticity of substitution between good and bad outputs are also obtained. The technical and environmental inefficiency of a representative firm is estimated as 0.06 implying that the thermal power generating industry in Andhra Pradesh state of India could increase production of electricity by 6/ while decreasing generation of pollution by 6%. This result shows that there are incentives or win–win opportunities for the firms to voluntarily comply with the environmental regulation. It is found that there is a significant variation in marginal cost of pollution abatement or shadow prices of bad outputs across the firms and an increasing marginal cost of pollution abatement with respect to pollution reduction by the firms. This result calls for the use of economic instruments like pollution taxes instead of command and control regulation used currently in India to reduce air pollution.

Heterogeneity in male and female farmers’ preference for a profit-enhancing and labor-saving technology: The case of Direct-Seeded Rice (DSR) in India

Labor-saving and income-increasing technologies may affect women farmers differently from men. However, very few studies explicitly account for women's preferences for new technologies. We carried out a discrete choice experiment with 337 female and 329 male farmers in Maharashtra, India, to measure their willingness to pay (WTP) for direct-seeded rice (DSR) with drum seeder and to understand the gender differences in marginal valuations of key attributes. We used the Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) to collect self-reported data on the role and say of women in different domains of decision making. The respective gender roles of women and men in the family and on the farm are aligned with their preferences. Men have a greater say over how the family spends the cash. Accordingly, men tend to have a higher WTP for attributes that increase income (increase in yield) or reduce cash costs (reduction in seed rate). Women contribute a large share of the labor for transplanting rice, much of which is unpaid work on family farms. Women, therefore, seem to value labor saving more. Women in our sample were more interested in the new technology and had a higher WTP for it.     

The influence of growth opportunities on the relationship between equity ownership and leverage

This study investigates whether the association between ownership structure and leverage varies with the magnitude of growth opportunities. According to the free cash flow hypothesis, managers receive utility from increasing firm size and the over-investment problem is more severe for firms with fewer growth opportunities. Considering the disciplinary role of leverage on the over-investment problem and ownership structure as a control mechanism to affect financing decisions, we hypothesize that the association between ownership structure and leverage is stronger for firms with fewer growth opportunities. We find that the association between equity ownership and leverage is significant for low-growth firms, but not for high-growth firms. The results mostly hold when sample firms are partitioned into large and small firms to directly control for the effect of firm size on the association between ownership structure and leverage.

Common stock returns,real activity,money, and inflation: Some international evidence

This paper tests whether the negative relationship between real stock returns and inflation in the United States is in fact proxying for a positive relationship between stock returns and real activity variables in six major industrial countries over 1966–1979. Consistent with Fama's ‘proxy-effect’ hypothesis, we document a negative relationship between inflation and real activity and a positive one between real stock returns and real activity variables. Real activity variables dominate money growth rates and expected and unexpected inflation in explaining real stock returns. A puzzling result that still remains is the positive role of money and the negative role of expected inflation in explaining these real stock returns in all major industrial countries.     

Heterogeneity and participation in informal employment among non-cultivator workers in India

Labour informality is one of the most serious challenges facing a developing economy like India with large-scale poverty and decent work deficits. This study has inspected possible heterogeneity within informal employment among the non-cultivator workers. Multinomial Logit was applied to find out the determinants of participation in different components of informal employment. Significant heterogeneity within the informal employment on poverty, age, gender, socio-religious communities, educational attainment and industrial classification was observed. There is coexistence of voluntary and involuntary informal employment. Given the diversity of employment, one-size-fits-all policy design may adversely affect sustainable and inclusive growth in India.     

A Test of a Theory of Strategically Retaliatory Trade Barriers

Within a game-theoretic lobbying model, the formation of strategic trade barriers is examined. Trade barriers are modeled as comprising a political component as well as a strategically retaliatory component that serves to deter foreign protectionism. Within this theoretical framework, the optimal policy is to erect retaliatory barriers against all imports even though the partner country protects only a subset of goods that are traded. The theory is described and tested using cross-industry U.S. nontariff barrier (NTB) data against nine developed countries in 1983. A three-equation simultaneous Tobit model is estimated for this purpose. Whether U.S. NTBs against these partner countries are retaliatory and, if so, whether the cross-industry structure of protection validates the predictions of the theory are empirically addressed.