Global emissions effects of CDM projects with relative baselines

CDM is an offset mechanism designed to reduce the overall cost of implementing a given global target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Annex B countries of the Kyoto Protocol. A problem with CDM is that it provides incentives to increase, if possible, the baseline emissions for CDM projects, to optimize the value of CDM credits. Under a “relative baselines” crediting rule, the CDM may also unduly increase energy consumption even during the CDM implementation phase. Less than full offset of emissions is then likely, and the CDM will lead to increased global GHG emissions. We show that this is a potentially serious problem, due to asymmetric information between project hosts and the regulator, the CDM Executive Board, and to the basic rules for crediting CDM quotas. In certain cases, the use of “relative baselines” to credit CDM quotas could fully eliminate any emissions reductions achieved by CDM projects. Remedies to overcome the problems are discussed. They may involve setting the baseline independently of initial energy intensity and final output for the project; or involve information revelation mechanisms that minimize policy losses and net rent capture by project sponsors.     

Job Loss and Entrepreneurship

We examine the impact of job loss on entrepreneurship behaviour. Our identification strategy relies on the use of mass layoffs caused by bankruptcies as indicators of exogenous displacement. Building on Norwegian register data, we find that working in a company which is going to close down due to bankruptcy in the near future raises the subsequent entrepreneur propensity by 155% for men and 180% for women, compared to working in a stable firm. These estimates are much larger than previously reported in the literature. Taking into account that many workers lose their jobs in the comparison group of stable firms also, we suggest that the full effects of displacement are even larger.     

Toward efficiency in the crude-oil market

The ‘official’ (OPEC) prices of crude oil before the collapse in the oil market in the mid-1980s can be interpreted as contract prices and analysed on the basis of the theory of futures (or forward) markets. This paper uses the generalized method of moments estimation technique to test for efficiency in the relationship between the official prices and the ex-post spot prices at the time of delivery. Efficiency is rejected for the sample period 1978–1985 as a whole, but evidence is found of improvements over time. Further, the GMM Wald and Hansen tests, although asymptotically equivalent, are shown to differ greatly when applied to a small sample of monthly oil price data.     

Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology: A factor analysis approach

In 1996, the second German Delphi study (“Delphi '98”) was started. The Delphi '98 is a two-round Delphi expert survey being conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education, Research, Science, and Technology (BMBF). The study was published in February 1998, and is now getting into its implementation phase. Its inherent focus is on the development of science and technology in 12 thematic fields in the next 30 years. To arrive at a better understanding of the influence of personal attitudes towards general developments in natural environment and society, the respondents were asked in the first round of the Delphi survey for their personal opinion towards several megatrends concerning the natural environment, economic, sociological, and political developments. Over 2,300 answers led to a very solid database, which gives insights into the general attitudes of the German R&D experts. On some topics, there is a high consensus, whereas in others, opposite opinions coexist. These results may serve as the database for a factor analysis leading to the identification of five different expert types. This paper examines the crucial question of whether different patterns in assessing the future development in science and technology by expert types can be observed. In general, it turned out that differences in personal attitudes towards megatrends do not influence the estimation of developments in science and technology. However, differences exist in specific topics and the distribution of the five experts types among the respondents differs significantly in the 12 fields.     

Firm Size and Wages in Germany – Trends and Impacts of Mobility

The analysis of firm-size wage differentials in Germany, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, firstly corroborates the finding that wages rise with firm-size and shows that the rank order of mean wages between firm-size classes is stable for the period 1984–1993. Secondly, the most important novel results are as follows: (i) wage differentials between firm-size classes increased during the period investigated after controlling for individual attributes and computing with deflated values; (ii) average levels of the qualification of employees have diverged noticeably between small and large firms; (iii) movers from small to larger firms have to accept wages below the average pay of incumbents with comparable attributes in the new firms: (iv) movers to smaller firms, however, retain a portion of their higher wages in larger firms; and (v) wage differentials between smaller and larger firms decline with increasing unemployment.     

Egalitarian Wage Policies and Long-Term Unemployment

How does a centrally imposed egalitarian wage policy affect unemployment, when workers differ with respect to productivity? The effect on total unemployment is found to be ambiguous. Egalitarian wages encourage job creation because increased profits derived from the most productive workers more than outweigh reduced profits derived from the least productive workers. Short-term unemployment is reduced. On the other hand, firms respond by raising their reservation productivity. Some workers are left almost completely unemployable. Long-term unemployment rises. Less inequality in the wage distribution is obtained at the expense of more inequality in the distribution of unemployment.     

Office location decisions, modal split and the environment: the ineffectiveness of Norwegian land use policy

An examination of five Norwegian companies’ decisions to locate/relocate reveals that the new locations are in accordance with policy objectives of reduced car commuting and related environmental improvements. Still, most companies ended up with new locations that increase car commuting significantly, compared both to the situation before relocation and to the alternative location that was eliminated only at the last stage in the selection process. This paradox may be explained by a double policy failure: First, current policy instruments are not oriented towards the parameters that companies themselves consider as key selection criteria for office location. Second, policy instruments do not adequately address factors that determine the share of car commuting for a given location.     

The impacts of innovations and standards on trade of measurement and testing products: empirical results of Switzerland’s bilateral trade flows with Germany, France and the UK

Nowadays, the impact of the measurement and testing infrastructure on economic performance and trade is theoretically and even politically widely accepted. However, there are no empirical studies on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the impact of innovative capacity and technical standards as one important part of the measurement and testing infrastructure on international trade flows and competitiveness. In order to focus on the direct causality between innovative technology and measurement and testing standards and the respective market, the empirical analysis concentrates on the trade of measurement and testing products of a country with a top position in measurement and testing technology. In its empirical analysis of Switzerland’s trade flows with Germany, France and the UK, the paper follows the approach of the pioneering paper of Swann et al. (Economic Journal 106 (1996) 1297), who integrated for the first time technical standards as a technology indicator in the estimation of UK trade performance. The trade flows in measurement and testing products from 1980 until 1995 are explained by both an indicator for innovative capacity and for the degree of standardisation. The first indicator is based on the patent applications at the European patent office. The latter uses the stocks of technical standards in the countries differentiated by their regional scope. Four different trade equations are analysed, besides an export and an import function, the trade balance and the intra-industry trade. The results clearly show that both Switzerland’s innovative capacity and its stocks of standards are able to explain its export performance in the three countries. Secondly, especially the stocks of international standards in Switzerland have a positive impact on imports into Switzerland from the three countries, confirming their positive role for fostering trade in general. Thirdly, Switzerland’s export surplus concerning the three trade partners is positively affected by the stocks of international standards in Switzerland, which seem to be an important factor for international competitiveness. Finally, the results of the intra-industry model underline the common view of the general trade-fostering effect of even national standards in the case of the trade with the three countries.     

Einige numerische Untersuchungen auf Grund der kollektiven Risikotheorie

Abstract

Wir gehen nun zu einem Bericht betreffs der Berechnungen über, die unter Annahme einer Maximierung des Versicherungsbetrages (Methode 2, Seite 93) und zur Bestimmung der Wahrscheinlichkeitszahl φ₁ gemacht worden sind.     

The Sickness Experience of the Valkyrian Insurance Company, 1929-48

Abstract

1. Introduction.