When vagueness induces indirect competition: strategic incompleteness of contracts

Summary. A class of employment contracts entailing production targets and consequent rewards is studied. In a nondiscriminatory environment, a principal hiring many agents faces the problem of writing a common contract which induces the highest possible effort from each one of his agents. While a very high target may get the best out of highly skilled agents, low skilled ones tend to shirk. On the other hand, although low targets make every agent put positive effort, there are efficiency losses from the high skilled agents. Also, in such environments the principal often has better information regarding the skills of all his agents than what each agent has regarding the rest of the agents at work. We show that if skills of agents are sufficiently close, the informed principal earns strictly higher profits by offering incomplete contracts as against being specific, as incomplete contracts reduce flow of information and induce indirect competition amongst agents. Received: May 19, 2000; revised version: August 28, 2001     

The Economics of Decoupled Farm Payments under Costly and Imperfect Enforcement

This paper builds on the literature covering agricultural policy analysis under costly and imperfect enforcement by introducing enforcement costs and misrepresentation into the economic analysis of decoupled farm payments. Specifically, the paper examines the economic causes and consequences of cheating on a stylized decoupled area payment scheme. Policy design and implementation is modeled as a sequential game between a regulator who designs the policy, an agency responsible for policy enforcement, and farmers. Analytical results show that complete deterrence of cheating is not economically efficient when enforcement is costly. The introduction of enforcement costs and cheating changes the welfare effects and transfer efficiency of decoupled area payments, the level of government intervention that transfers a given surplus to producers, the socially optimal income redistribution, and the social welfare from intervention. While the transfer efficiency of the policy is positively related to the extent of farmer misrepresentation, the incorporation of enforcement costs and cheating results in decoupled payments being generally a less efficient means of income redistribution than is traditionally believed. Nevertheless, the analysis shows that decoupled payments remain superior to coupled subsidies as a means of farm income support. Les auteurs ajoutent à ce qui s'est déjàécrit sur l'analyse des politiques agricoles dans le contexte d'une application imparfaite et onéreuse en intégrant à l'analyse du découplage des paiements agricoles le coût d'une exécution forcée et des fausses déclarations. Plus précisément, l'article examine les causes et les répercussions économiques de la fraude dans le cadre d'un programme stylisé de découplage régional des paiements. l'élaboration et l'application des politiques ont été modélisées comme un jeu séquentiel entre l'organisme de réglementation, qui échafaude la politique, l'organisme chargé d'appliquer cette dernière et les agriculteurs. Les résultats indiquent que combattre la fraude n'est pas économique quand une application forcée de la politique est onéreuse. L'introduction des coûts d'exécution et de la fraude entraîne une modification de l'incidence du programme sur le bien‐être social et de l'efficacité du transfert des paiements découplés aux régions, du degré d'intervention du gouvernement débouchant sur la réalisation d'un certain excédent par les producteurs, de la redistribution socialement optimale des revenus et du bien‐être résultant de l'intervention. Bien que l'efficacité de transfert de la politique présente une corrélation positive avec l'importance des fausses déclarations faites par les producteurs, l'intégration du coût d'une application forcée et de la fraude indique que le découplage des paiements n'est pas aussi efficace qu'on le croyait pour ce qui est de redistribuer les revenus. Malgré cela, l'analyse révèle que le découplage assure un meilleur soutien du revenu que le couplage des subventions.     

Revisiting the firm,industry, and country effects on profitability under recessionary and expansion periods: A multilevel analysis

Research summary: Despite voluminous past research, the relevance of firm, industry, and country effects on profitability, particularly under adverse contexts, is still unclear. We reconcile institutional theory with the resource‐based view and industrial organization economics to investigate the effects of economic adversity, such as the 2008 global economic crisis. Using a three‐level random coefficient model, we examine 15,008 firms across 10 emerging and 10 developed countries for the 2005–2011 period. We find that firm effects become stronger under adversity, whereas industry effects become weaker, as well as country main and interaction effects, particularly among the emerging economies. These findings confirm our assumptions that the firm's own fate is, to a great extent, self‐determined; a reality that is even more pronounced during periods of extreme economic hardship. Managerial summary: In this research, we examine how generalized economic adversity affects the balance across the firm‐, industry‐, and country‐specific factors determining firm profitability. We specifically examine 15,008 firms from 10 emerging and 10 developed countries during the 2005–2011 period to investigate the effects of the 2008 global economic crisis on firm performance. We find that in such adverse conditions, the role of the industry and the country are reduced and the firm's own resources and capabilities become more pertinent for firm performance. This phenomenon is more pronounced across emerging markets. We conclude that the firm's own fate is, to a great extent, self‐determined, a reality that is markedly more evident during periods of extreme economic hardship. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stock market prediction using evolutionary support vector machines: an application to the ASE20 index

The main motivation for this paper is to introduce a novel hybrid method for the prediction of the directional movement of financial assets with an application to the ASE20 Greek stock index. Specifically, we use an alternative computational methodology named evolutionary support vector machine (ESVM) stock predictor for modeling and trading the ASE20 Greek stock index extending the universe of the examined inputs to include autoregressive inputs and moving averages of the ASE20 index and other four financial indices. The proposed hybrid method consists of a combination of genetic algorithms with support vector machines modified to uncover effective short-term trading models and overcome the limitations of existing methods. For comparison purposes, the trading performance of the ESVM stock predictor is benchmarked with four traditional strategies (a naïve strategy, a buy and hold strategy, a moving average convergence/divergence and an autoregressive moving average model), and a multilayer perceptron neural network model. As it turns out, the proposed methodology produces a higher trading performance, even during the financial crisis period, in terms of annualized return and information ratio, while providing information about the relationship between the ASE20 index and DAX30, NIKKEI225, FTSE100 and S&P500 indices.     

Antecedents of adaptive selling among retail salespeople: A multilevel analysis

The literature on adaptive selling behavior has grown rapidly over the years, with heavier emphasis placed on industrial/professional salespeople and less attention given to retail salespeople. This study contributes to addressing this imbalance by examining the effects of two salesperson factors (selling skills and affective commitment) and two company-level variables (empowerment and behavior-based control) on the adaptive selling behavior of retail salespeople. Using data obtained from a two staged sampling procedure (105 companies and 419 salespeople), we employ a multilevel analytical procedure to model the effects of the salesperson and organizational factors on adaptive selling behavior of retail salespeople. The results indicate that selling skills and affective commitment directly influence adaptive selling while empowerment and behavior based control only indirectly influence adaptive selling behavior. Based on the findings of this study, implications for managing retail salespeople as well as limitations and suggestions for future research are presented.     

Predicting technical effciency in stochastic production frontier models in the presence of misspecification: a Monte-Carlo analysis

This paper provides a theoretical explanation for the sensitivity of technical efficiency measures to the choice of functional specification in stochastic production frontier models. It is shown that inappropriate functional specifications translate into a misspecification in the conditional mean of the stochastic frontier regression model. This misspecification, in turn, results in estimates of technical efficiency, confidence intervals and production elasticities being biased, even asymptotically. Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that the severity of the bias depends on the functional specification and the percentage contribution of the variance of technical inefficiency to the total variance of the composed errors.     

Multiple Job Holding,Skill Diversification,and Mobility

In this article, we investigate the interrelated dynamics of dual jobholding, human capital, occupational choice, and mobility, using a panel sample (1991–2005) of UK employees from the British Household Panel Survey. The evidence suggests that individuals may be using multiple jobholding as a conduit for obtaining new skills and expertise and as a stepping‐stone to new careers, also involving self‐employment. Individuals doing a different secondary job than their primary occupation are more likely to switch to a new primary job in the next year, and a job that is different than their current primary employment. The results show that there are human capital spillover effects between primary and secondary employment.     

Diferencias de satisfacción con el trabajo en Europa según nivel salarial

Los datos de seis olas (1996–2001) del Panel de Hogares de la Unión Europea (PHOGUE) indican que los trabajadores que cobran salarios bajos están mucho menos contentos que los que perciben una remuneración alta en el sur de Europa, si bien no ocurre lo mismo en los países del norte. Los empleos europeos de remuneración modesta no son forzosamente malos, aunque sí lo son en algunos países donde un sector de los trabajadores sufre de lleno el doble infortunio del trabajo mediocre con salario bajo. Las diferencias nacionales obedecen a las características propias de la transacción entre flexibilidad y seguridad, por lo que es esencial impulsar políticas que mejoren la calidad del trabajo.     

The Role of Upstream‐Downstream Competition on Bundling Decisions: Should Regulators Force Firms to Unbundle?

We develop an upstream–downstream model to analyze downstream firms' incentives to bundle. In our framework, the upstream firms are content providers (such as television stations) and the downstream firms are system operators (such as cable/satellite operators). We show that an a la carte regulation (i.e., a regulation that forces downstream firms to unbundle) leads to higher consumer surplus, if the unregulated equilibrium exhibits pure bundling (PB). Hence, our model predicts that in the television industry, which is mainly characterized by PB, an a la carte regulation will be beneficial for the consumers. If, on the other hand, the unregulated equilibrium is characterized by mixed bundling, then an a la carte regulation will increase consumer welfare provided that demand for multiple purchases is strong.     

The Tourism Workforce and Policy: Exploring the Assumptions using Crete as the Case Study

The size of the tourism workforce has grown rapidly to the extent that today, travel and tourism is considered to be the world's largest employer. The potential of tourism for generating jobs in areas where there are few other alternatives for employment has resulted in many governments electing to expand their tourism industry. Nevertheless, tourism has been criticised for creating part-time, seasonal, low quality and informal jobs often occupied by migrants and females. This paper sets out the main characteristics of the tourism workforce as reported by academic papers, identifies whether the same characteristics are evident on the island of Crete (Greece), and discusses the issues surrounding tourism policy formulation in relation to the tourism workforce of Crete. The conclusion is that very often jobs in tourism are judged, and responses formulated, on a normative (value laden) basis (an ideal) without full consideration being given to the actual (technical) underpinnings and implications.