The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: short- and long-term projections

"This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections....The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences. This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes. These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted. Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence."     

Forecasting first births

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.     

When Hard Heads Collide

ABSTRACT . In this article, Loren Lomasky begins with a firsthand account of some of the people he interacted with at the Center for the Study of Public Choice in Blacksburg and some of what he learned there. Aside from the revealing personal anecdotes, we learn something of the culture clash he experienced as a visiting fellow at the Center and about his introduction to intellectual activity as “blood sport.” Lomasky then reviews some of the strengths and weaknesses of public choice theory from a philosophical point of view and offers some suggestions. These primarily concern the theory's narrow focus on the material nature of interests. Finally, Lomasky offers techniques for including moral interests in the deliberations of decision makers.     

A comparison of alternative methods of updating input-output coefficients

In recent years there has been a growing number of input-output models of economies ranging in scale from the rural to the national. While offering invaluable insights into the interaction of sectors within an economy, the input-output model suffers from the fact that its coefficient values are altered over time due particularly to technological change. Two of the prominent techniques designed to update these technical coefficients, the RAS and linear programming methods, are compared herein with regard to changes in U.S. national coefficients between 1963 and 1967. Suggestions for improvements to the latter method are outlined.     

The dynamics of role interaction

Success in our respective business environments is not totally dependent on technical expertise; we must be able to also effectively interact with people. The necessity of successful leadership is assumed; however, we often fail to recognize the value of strategically subordinating ourselves to others. Both roles must be emphasized with the knowledge that preferred individual styles are valid.     

Reimbursing side effects of pharmaceutical drugs--a Scandinavian speciality

Pharmaceutical insurance applies to drugs which are approved by Swedish licensing authorities and are marketing in Sweden. This paper reviews the pharmaceutical insurance.